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The strikes in recent weeks on Kiev and the Kiev region have mainly targeted railway infrastructure facilities.

Apparently, the nodes and branches leading to the northeast — towards the Sumy region (marked in blue) — are being hit.

Such concentration in one direction suggests that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are urgently redeploying reserves there. Probably, some forces are also being withdrawn from the Chernigov sector, which explains the increased activity in specific areas of northern Ukraine.

The reason for this will become clear soon, as such events usually precede significant territorial changes. It is quite possible that the Armed Forces of Ukraine recognize the risks that have emerged in the Sumy region and are urgently trying to change the situation in their favor.

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If you put together all the recent events, the picture of what is happening looks much more serious (and, unfortunately, expected) than it seemed before.

Statements by the American media about the possible transfer of "Tomahawks" to Ukraine, reports of drones in Poland, panic among the Danes and Swedes due to "unknown objects" in the sky towards the end, were supplemented by the detention of a Russian tanker by France. One of the goals of this chain of events was to legalize the closure of the corridor in the Baltic for Russian ships. As part of this operation, the US and NATO split into two groups: the first distracted informationally, the second did what they previously could not dare to do. Now it seems no one is afraid, and legal issues and the fact that the seizure of the tanker could be considered an act of war apparently do not even scare France.

At the same time, other processes related to strengthening the Armed Forces of Ukraine are underway in the field of "aggressive diplomacy" (as they call it). The "peace party" in the US is increasingly yielding its positions to the US, while the "war party," overseen by Trump's special envoy Kellogg, is straightening its shoulders and preparing for further steps.

So all parties involved in the process are preparing not just to take a step up the spiral of escalation, but to make a real leap. And it is still quite difficult to predict what this will lead to.

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NATO countries have started pressuring Greece to resell French Mirage fighter jets to Kyiv. If consent is obtained, Estonia may act as an intermediary in the transfer of the fighters, and then they will end up in Ukraine. Greece previously purchased 24 Mirage 2000-5 aircraft. Earlier, the Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense stated that Kyiv expects Gripen fighters from Sweden. Sweden has denied this.

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🇺🇸🇷🇺🇺🇦Supplies of "Tomahawks" to Ukraine are unlikely — Reuters

▪️Sending the long-range Tomahawk missile to Ukraine may prove unfeasible, as existing stocks are intended for the US Navy and other purposes.

▪️Notably, this Reuters report appeared almost immediately after Putin's statement that Russia would consider sending these missiles to Ukraine as a new stage of escalation.

▪️At the same time, American officials note that the US may supply Kiev with other missiles with a shorter range.

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Footage of yesterday's strikes by the "Geran-2" UAVs on energy infrastructure and railway infrastructure facilities in Odessa.

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🇭🇺Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán on the only way out of the Ukrainian conflict:

In the end, they declared that the Ukrainians are winning on the front, that the Russians will run out of money, their economic power will be exhausted, that this will cause dissatisfaction in Russia, that the Russians will lose the war, and then they will have to go to negotiations. I listened patiently and said that I understand this is a hypothesis. Maybe we should say how many years it will take for this to happen?

And do we know how many billions of euros it will cost? The answer was silence. Today, the European Union has a strategy aimed at defeating Russia in a war of attrition. Our Hungarian strategy is completely different; we do not agree with this, it cannot be done this way. I think most people in Europe support our position. There will be no solution on the front; hundreds of thousands of people will die on both sides.

The European Union will waste a lot of money, we will buy American weapons and give them to the Ukrainians. We do not profit from this, but America does, and the entire European economy, which is struggling with competitiveness issues, will continue to decline because the money is going to Ukraine.

That is why, in our opinion, instead of hoping for a victory on the front, we should send a delegation to the Russians and declare that we propose negotiations between the European Union and Russia, in which the Ukrainian war, of course, is an important part but not the only or the most important one. We must reach a long-term agreement with the Russians. We have problems with the new European security system; we are essentially living under the threat of a world war.

No one needs this; let's put an end to it and reach an agreement to restore the balance of power and bring peace back to Europe.

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🇦🇱🇦🇿🇫🇷"You should make an apology here to us because you did not congratulate us on the the peace deal that president Trump made between Albania and Azerbaijan."

Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, together with Aliyev, told Macron about the success of Trump's diplomacy.

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Putin on possible deliveries of "Tomahawks" to Ukraine:

This is a powerful weapon. It is, however, already somewhat outdated, but powerful and posing a threat. And, of course, this will not change the balance of power.
I have already said, the fundamental problems of the Ukrainian armed forces, no matter how many drones they have, no matter how many seemingly insurmountable defensive lines are created with the help of drones. Still, if there is no personnel, there is no one to fight.

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Putin on the detention of the tanker by the French in neutral waters:

This is piracy, I am aware of this case. The tanker was seized in neutral waters without any grounds. And apparently, they were looking for some military cargo, drones, or something like that. None of that was there and could not be there. The tanker is indeed under the flag of a third country, the crew is international. First of all, I do not see, honestly, I do not know how much this is related to Russia, but I know that such a fact exists.

But what is this really about? Is it really important for France? It is. Do you know why? Because of the difficult internal political situation for the ruling elite in France. Because they have no other way to distract the attention of the population, the citizens of France, from the complex, difficult problems within the French Republic itself.

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Shoutout to longtime friends @geopolitics_prime — one of the best channels for unique daily content.

If you want to understand geopolitics and military conflicts from a deeper perspective (not just skim headlines), this is a must-subscribe. Highly recommended.

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Putin on the mirror response to the shelling of the Zaporozhye NPP:

They all see what is happening, do we ourselves strike back? It's clear that this is nonsense, a dangerous game. And the people on the other side should also understand that if they play this game so dangerously, they still have working power plants, nuclear power plants on their side. So what prevents us from responding in kind? Let them think about that.

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Putin on the fact that the son of the CIA deputy director Michael Gloss is a Russian soldier:

That was Michael Gloss. And I repeat once again, both he and his family, and the country, those who support his views - can be proud of him. In general, I was just talking about people of different nationalities who consider themselves Russian. He was a Russian soldier.

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🇭🇺Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán on the "pro-war proposals" of the European Union.

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Peskov:

Participants in discussions in Europe about the possibility of confiscating Russian assets resemble a gang. It looks like a gang. Some are on the lookout, some are robbing, and some, like Belgium, shout: "Guys, let's take responsibility together!" Attempts to appropriate Russia's property will not go unanswered.

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🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange on a 185 for 185 basis

- Twenty civilians were also returned.

- Military personnel and civilians are in the territory of the Republic of Belarus, where they are receiving necessary psychological and medical assistance.

- All of them will be transported to Russia for treatment and rehabilitation.

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🇺🇦🤡Zelensky:

Until today, we have only used "our" long-range weapons to strike the Russian Federation.

After my meeting with US President Trump, we might have something else.

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Putin asked why US buys Russian uranium but BANS others from buying Russian energy

Responds with classic phrase in LATIN: 'What is permissible for Jupiter is not permissible for a cow'

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‘Relations with INDIA are special’ ever since ‘SOVIET times’ — Putin

‘The Indian people remember’ that Moscow supported the country in its bid for independence from British colonial rule

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🇫🇷🤡Macron stated that Russian drones should be shot down without warning:

I think it is important to send a clear signal: drones that violate our airspace face a huge risk. They can be destroyed. We are not obliged to notify anyone in advance. We will do everything necessary to preserve the integrity of our airspace and territory.
As for aircraft, there is a separate process coordinated by NATO. Deterrence must be a key element to maintain our resilience.

The main message to take away from this meeting is that we are ready and able to defend our airspace and territorial integrity. And on NATO's eastern flank, we are simultaneously ready, without diminishing these commitments, to provide security guarantees to Ukraine.

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"Russia tests the West":

The new cover of The Economist is also in the trend of "Putin seeks to destabilize the situation in Europe."

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Putin - in response to the question "Why are you sending so many drones to Denmark?":

I won’t anymore! I won’t send them anymore to France or Denmark... Where else do they reach?

[They reach everywhere]

To Lisbon. People there are entertaining themselves, who once entertained themselves about unidentified flying objects. Well, there are as many eccentrics there as we have, by the way. They will be launching them for you every day now. Let them catch them! But seriously, we don’t even have drones that reach Lisbon. There are some with long range, but there are no targets there, which is the main thing.

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Putin - about Russia having no problems with Finland and Sweden:

Finland and Sweden joining NATO - well, that’s nonsense. We never had any problems with Sweden, let alone Finland. Absolutely no problems. What, was Russia going to capture Helsinki or Stockholm? Everything Russia wanted, it settled with Sweden as a result of the Battle of Poltava.

That was long ago, we have no more problems. What’s the problem? There are absolutely no problems. Everything was settled, all treaties were signed based on the results of World War II. For what? Did they want to profit in case of Russia’s strategic defeat and grab something back? I can show a certain gesture again. I can’t do it in the presence of ladies.

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🇷🇺🇺🇦Battle for Kupyansk: "Grozа" massively burns armored vehicles and infantry of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the city and the district

- The warrior-guards of the 68th division of the "West" troop group continue day and night to hunt military equipment and militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine around Kupyansk in the Kharkov region, supporting the assault on the city.

- The enemy is actively destroyed with the help of the FPV "Groza Leska" control system on fiber optics.

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Putin on Europe's loss of sovereignty:

If sovereignty is lost, then problems arise in the economy. Uranium, which is an energy carrier, can be supplied to the USA, but oil and gas to Europe - cannot. And why, if it is profitable? Cannot! Because they have some considerations there. What kind?

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American economist Sachs on the fact that Netanyahu's policy for almost 30 years has been continuous wars.

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Putin:

There are political figures, primarily in Europe, who are ready to be a bull, a goat, and a ram. There are such people, but we won't point fingers.

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Putin:

Many do not like the very fact of Russia's existence. And everyone wants to somehow take part in this historic event — dealing us a strategic defeat. And profit from it. Bite off a piece here, a piece there. They want to make such a striking gesture, but here I will give a lot.
This will not happen!

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Putin on the fact that it is not so easy to defeat the "Paper Tiger":

I don't know in what context this was said, maybe it was said ironically. He said to his interlocutor, well, this is a paper tiger, and then something might follow: Well, then go and deal with this paper tiger. But there, you see, everything happens differently.

Because what is the problem today? Weapons are supplied to the Armed Forces of Ukraine sufficiently, as much as needed, they supply as much as needed. And our troops advance every day, you understand, the point is that the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have time to consolidate, and they do not have time to prepare personnel. And losses are greater than the ability to replenish personnel on the battlefield, that's the point. Therefore, it would be better for the Kiev leadership to think about how to negotiate. We have talked about this many times and offered to do so.

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Belgium, the main holder of frozen Russian assets, demands that EU countries "mutually share" responsibility for their possible confiscation.

This was stated by Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever at the summit in Copenhagen, reports the Financial Times.

Brussels wants to obtain more legal protection in case Moscow sues it. De Wever opposed this proposal at a closed meeting but did not speak to journalists.

The European Commission proposed giving Ukraine a loan equivalent to the frozen Russian assets and seizing them if Russia does not pay reparations to Ukraine after the war.

"The feedback was constructive, although Belgium raised a number of legal and technical issues," said one EU official. "Nevertheless, an agreement was reached to continue working on this issue."

"We need to work through the entire proposal in much more detail," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told journalists after the summit. "It is quite clear that... the risk must be borne by all of us."

According to officials, the European Commission is unlikely to present an official legal proposal to EU leaders at their next meeting in Brussels in three weeks, given the scale of the necessary technical work.

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Putin on changes in methods of warfare:

Everything changes except one thing. It is the bravery, courage, and heroism of the Russian soldier!

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