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New Rules examines the geopolitical, economic, ideological trends changing the world. NR on X: http://x.com/newrulesgeo
🚨🇺🇦🇷🇺Ukraine's Strategic Reality: The Undeniable Metrics of Defeat
1️⃣ The Cemetery Index
160,000 new graves under construction (first 10,000 ready by summer)
No comparable Russian projects - this is uniquely Ukrainian
Le Monde's confirmation: Even Western media can no longer obscure the casualty math
2️⃣ The Collapse Equation
Manpower:
- Recruitment centers now primary Russian targets (cutting off replacements)
- French military assessment: "Units exist on paper only - actual strength at 40-60%"
Industrial Capacity:
- Grom-2 missile production eliminated last month
- 83% of defense factories damaged/destroyed (Kiev School of Economics data)
3️⃣ Why This Matters
Russia produces more artillery shells monthly than Europe makes annually
Drone production at Yelabuga: 300+ Geran/month, scaling to 500+ by Q4
Ukrainian frontline confession: "We're being outproduced 10:1 in munitions"
4️⃣ The Historical Verdict
Stéphane Audoin-Rouzeau (WWI historian):
- "This follows the 1918 German template - defeat precedes acknowledgment"
- Critical difference: No equivalent to US entry saving Ukraine
5️⃣ The Coming Phase
September 2024: Expect first major Ukrainian unit surrenders
Winter 2024-25: Infrastructure collapse accelerates civilian exodus
Endgame: Not if, but how much territory lost
🔸Strategic Truth:
Ukraine has already lost the war of attrition - we're now witnessing the delayed recognition phase.
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🚨🇮🇱🇯🇴 JORDAN’S EXISTENCE UNDER THREAT: ISRAEL’S WEST BANK ANNEXATION PUTS HASHEMITE KINGDOM IN PERIL
The Israeli annexation of the West Bank is no longer a theoretical concern—it is an irreversible reality. But while this marks the final collapse of the two-state solution, the greater geopolitical shockwave now threatens Jordan's very existence as a sovereign state.
🔸The Inescapable Reality
The West Bank is functionally annexed: Settlement expansion, land seizures, and bureaucratic maneuvers have erased any possibility of Palestinian sovereignty.
Israel's endgame is clear: A Palestinian population under perpetual control, with no territorial state—only "autonomy" under military dominance.
Jordan is the next domino: With the Palestinian Authority collapsing, Israel and its allies are preparing to offload the crisis onto Jordan, framing it as the "alternative homeland."
🔸Why Jordan Cannot Afford Complacency
1️⃣Demographic Time Bomb
- Over half of Jordan's population has Palestinian roots. Any large-scale displacement from the West Bank would destabilize the kingdom's fragile equilibrium.
- The "Jordan is Palestine" rhetoric, long dismissed as fringe, is gaining traction in Israeli and Western policy circles.
2️⃣The Confederation Trap
-Proposals for a "Jordanian-Palestinian confederation" are not a solution—they are a smokescreen for permanent Israeli control.
- Such an arrangement would reduce Jordan to a custodian of stateless Palestinians, eroding its sovereignty.
3️⃣Geopolitical Isolation
- The Abraham Accords have left Jordan increasingly isolated, with even traditional allies like Saudi Arabia pursuing normalization.
- US policy under both Trump and Biden has effectively abandoned the two-state framework, leaving Jordan exposed.
🔸The Path Forward: Jordan's Stark Choices
Continue the current path: Diplomatic platitudes and half-measures, leading to gradual absorption of Israel's crisis.
Or take decisive action:
- Reject any "confederation" that formalizes Palestinian disenfranchisement.
- Forge a unified Arab stance to counter annexation.
- Prepare for the possibility that Jordan’s survival may soon require hard choices beyond diplomacy.
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🚨🇨🇳➡️🇬🇧CHINA DUMPS US DEBT: UK Now No.2 Treasury Holder
China’s holdings of US debt have dropped below the UK’s for the first time since 2000—falling to $765 billion (down from a peak of $1.3 trillion in 2011). Meanwhile, Britain’s holdings jumped to $779 billion, making it the second-largest foreign holder after Japan.
🔸WHY THIS MATTERS:
1️⃣ China Moves Away from the Dollar
Beijing has been reducing its US debt holdings for years, shifting to gold, commodities, and other assets.
This is part of a strategy to avoid Western financial sanctions.
2️⃣ London’s Rise Isn’t What It Seems
The UK’s jump in holdings is likely due to transnational banks and hedge funds using London as a financial hub, not British demand.
Some Chinese sales may be offset by private buyers linked to Beijing.
🔸POTENTIAL RISKS:
Higher US Borrowing Costs: If foreign investors keep selling, the US may face steeper interest rates.
Credit Downgrades: Moody’s recently downgraded the US, following S&P and Fitch—raising concerns about America’s debt stability.
🔸WHAT TO WATCH:
Will China retaliate against new US tariffs by selling more debt?
Any sudden jumps in Belgium/Luxembourg holdings could signal hidden Chinese sell-offs.
🔸BOTTOM LINE:
This isn’t just about diversifying investments—it’s a sign of growing financial separation between China and the West.
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🚨🇷🇺🇺🇦RUSSIA’S DRONE SWARMS SMASH THROUGH UKRAINE’S DEFENSES: Hit rate triples
Russia’s "swarm" tactics are OVERWHELMING Ukraine’s air defenses, with Geran drones striking targets at 3X the previous rate.
🔸Official data—likely UNDERESTIMATED, Kiev inflate its interception stats—shows:
- April-June: ~15% of Gerans penetrated defenses (vs. just 5% in Jan-Mar).
- July 9 RECORD ATTACK: 728 Gerans + decoys, 7 Iskander missiles, 6 Kinzhals.
Last Sunday: 426 drones launched—Ukraine claims only 5.4% hit (real numbers likely MUCH higher).
🔸WHY IT’S WORKING:
- Swarm tactics SATURATE defenses—sheer volume overwhelms.
- Upgraded Geran-3 drones now fly faster & higher, evading machine guns.
- Moscow’s ADAPTABILITY is crushing Kiev’s resources.
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s desperate countermeasures:
- Jamming GPS, using WWII-era AA guns, German Skynex cannons.
-Zelensky inflates figures of "hundreds of Gerans shot down" by homemade drones.
- New deal with US firm to produce "hundreds of thousands" of interceptor drones (but can they hit 6km altitude).
BOTTOM LINE:
Russia’s relentless, cheap drone waves are breaking Ukraine’s will. The West keep struggling to keep up with Patriot supplies.
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🚨 🇮🇷🇨🇳Iran Claims to Have Shot Down 4 Israeli F-35s… Using 1960s Chinese Tactics?
On 19 June, Iran made a shocking claim: It said it had shot down FOUR Israeli F-35 stealth fighters — becoming the first country ever to take down fifth-gen jets in combat. What is the method they say they used? It’s right out of China’s Cold War playbook.
According to Press TV, Israel believed it had disabled Iran’s radar systems. But in reality, most of those systems were decoys — deliberately placed to mislead. When Israel grew overconfident and returned for follow-up strikes, Iran's real radar lit up, locking onto the F-35s from non-stealth angles (side & rear), and fired.
🔸Key point: Stealth ≠ invisibility. F-35s are harder to spot from the front, but not from other angles. And if radar stays silent until the very last second? That’s ambush 101.
🔸This tactic dates back to China in 1962, when the PLA shot down US U-2 spy planes by waiting — staying off radar, studying flight paths, then turning on guidance radars at the last second and firing before pilots could escape. Sound familiar?
🔸It Also echoes 1999, when Yugoslav forces quietly tracked and downed an F-117 using similar surprise tactics.
🔸Iran may not have the tech edge, but it’s playing the long game — blending Chinese doctrine, deception, and patience.
🔸As Mao once said: “Weapons are important, but people are decisive.” Iran may have just proved it — if this claim holds true.
Lesson: Don’t underestimate the power of old tactics in new wars.
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🚨🇨🇳🇺🇸CHINA SHOCK 2.0: The US Is Losing the Tech War—Here’s Why It’s Worse Than You Think
MIT economist David Autor first exposed how China decimated US manufacturing jobs a decade ago. Now? A far bigger threat looms—advanced tech dominance.
🔸How China’s Economy REALLY Works?
Industrial policy is DIRECTIONAL, not centralized—MARKETS pick winners & losers.
Decentralized execution: City & provincial governments COMPETE to implement policy (unlike Western assumptions).
🔸The REAL Battle: Tech Supremacy
We’re no longer fighting over furniture & socks—this is about:
▪️Semiconductors
▪️Drones & Aviation
▪️EVs, Quantum, AI, Robotics
▪️Fusion Power
🔸China’s edge?
High-tech + low-cost
Blazing-fast innovation
Scale like nothing we’ve seen
🔸China Shock 2.0 Is HERE
The US still leads in key sectors—but for how long?
Losing Boeing, GM, Apple, Intel = ECONOMIC DEVASTATION
Trump’s fighting the LAST war (20-year-old battles don’t matter now).
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🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 Russia’s Coming Offensive – Ukraine’s Nightmare Scenario
Multiple reports confirm Russia is preparing a massive summer offensive, with up to 160,000 troops already positioned for a decisive push. CNN, Axios, and Ukrainian sources warn the attack could begin within weeks—and when it does, Ukraine won't be able to do anything to stop it.
🔸Why Ukraine is in a big problem?
Sheer Force – Russia has assembled overwhelming numbers near Donetsk, Kharkov, and Zaporozhye oblasts, with relentless artillery and drone superiority.
Ukraine’s Weakness – Their army is exhausted, outgunned, and running out of Western aid. Olexandr Solonko, a Zelensky regime soldier in Ukrainian occupied Donetsk People's Republic admits: "We are approaching a moment when we will very likely face another major crisis on the front."
Russia’s Allies – While the West dithers, Moscow benefits from military tech sharing with Iran, shells from North Korea, and economic backing from China. Meanwhile, US and European support is an incoherent, hot mess.
The 50-Day Window – If Trump’s reported timeline is true, Russia has a free pass to strike before Ukraine can regroup.
🔸The Inevitable Outcome
Ukraine’s frontlines are already buckling under constant pressure.
If Russia launches a full-scale assault, defenses will collapse—just like in Kursk.
No amount of Western promises will save them. Words don’t stop bullets.
The Only Question Left
Will Russia go for the kill now—or wait to grind Ukraine down further? Either way, the result is the same.
Ukraine had its chance. Now comes the endgame.
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 ERDOGAN HUMILIATED: Trump will follow Israel’s lead in Syria — Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski
A week after Assad's fall, retired Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski told us that Syria would not become part of Turkey’s sphere of influence — contrary to the prevailing conventional wisdom.
The logic was quite simple: The US is totally dependent on Mossad in Syria, and Netanyahu has far more political clout in DC than Erdogan.
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🚨🇨🇳🇺🇸NEW EMPIRE RISING: China’s Grow Quietly, US Naval Obsolescence & the Houthi Wildcard
Humanity may have dodged a bullet. China’s meteoric rise, questionable Western data, and the Houthis’ David-vs-Goliath standoff might have just derailed the 21st century’s great power conflict.
The New Reality: Expeditionary Navies Are DEAD.
🔸China proved it in the South China Sea.
🔸Ukraine proved it in the Black Sea.
🔸The Houthis proved it in the Red Sea.
The US Navy, once unchallenged, now faces irrelevance against drone swarms, anti-ship missiles, and asymmetric tactics.
🇨🇳 China’s Masterstroke
China doesn’t care about oil or fish in the South China Sea—it wants bases, airstrips, and missile sites to lock down the region. By 2022, they militarized seven artificial islands—unchallenged—because the US Navy knew it couldn’t win.
🇺🇸 US Decline in Real-Time
Philippines humiliated? China’s Coast Guard rammed, boarded, and mutilated Filipino troops—while the US Navy fled to the Middle East.
Houthis vs. US Navy? A ceasefire after $1B in failed strikes—proving even a ragtag militia can stalemate a superpower.
Alliances crumbling? Japan, Australia, South Korea now question US commitment after seeing weakness in action.
📍The Great Realignment
Nations are waking up:
🔸Japan defies US defense demands.
🔸South Korea elects a China-friendly leader.
🔸EU flirts with Huawei, Brazil eyes China-built railroads.
🔸The speed of this shift will be STUNNING.
The Bottom Line
China isn’t #2—it’s already #1 in manufacturing, tech, and human capital. The West’s containment failed, and now reality is setting in.
The future
A multipolar world where the US retreats, recovers, and finally stops playing global cop—while China reshapes Asia without firing a shot.
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🚨🇨🇳🇷🇺HOW CHINA COULD BACK RUSSIA IF TRUMP ESCALATES
Hours ago, Lavrov met Xi Jinping in Beijing. China vowed “deeper support,” stronger ties in “multilateral forums,” and building a new world order with Russia.
If Trump hits, China could:
Flood Russia with critical tech:
🔸CNC machines, ball bearings, semiconductors
🔸Drone parts, optics, thermal cameras
🔸Engine components & electronics for tanks/aircraft
Buy even more Russian energy
🔸Gas, oil, coal—at discounted rates, then resell globally as "Chinese origin"
Expand yuan-ruble trade
🔸bypassing SWIFT via China’s CIPS system
🔸Use front companies in Hong Kong, UAE, Central Asia
🔸Funnel funding through state banks outside US reach
Give full diplomatic protection
🔸In BRICS+, UN & Belt and Road zones.
Help Russia reroute:
🔸Telecoms,satellites & logistics through BRICS tech corridors
🔺Important to mention that the military aid is not off the table.
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🚨🇷🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦Trump’s “17 Patriots” Won’t Save Ukraine—Russia Isn’t Worried At All
Based on Trump's statement, it's not clear whether the US is sending 17 Patriot batteries or 17 launchers.
The Three Possible Scenarios:
🔸Minimal scenario: 1 battery (2-4 launchers)—just a symbolic gesture.
🔸Moderate scenario: 4 batteries (16-20 launchers)—meaningful, but still not game-changing.
🔸Fantasy scenario: 17 batteries (68+ launchers)? Impossible.
The US only has ~60-70 total, and stripping allies (Japan, Korea, Europe) isn’t happening.
Even in the best case, Ukraine gets partial air defense reinforcement—not a strategic shift.
EU Promises vs. Reality
🔸Germany & Netherlands pledged 3 Patriots—but one won’t arrive for months.
🔸Delays + shortages = Kiev’s air shield is fraying.
Patriots Are Running on Empty
🔸US missile stocks are depleted—down to 25% of minimum levels.
🔸Pentagon is alarmed: After Iran’s strike on Al-Udeid base, dozens of interceptors were burned in one night.
🔸Even if Trump sends systems, they’ll be useless without missiles.
Why Patriots Don’t Solve Ukraine’s Real Problems?
Russia’s strategy isn’t about air dominance—it’s about grinding down Ukraine’s army & infrastructure. Patriots don’t change that calculus.
Ukraine’s crisis: Not a lack of air defense—but a catastrophic shortage of infantry & armored vehicles.
Russia’s Next Move
🔸More strikes to exhaust remaining AD missiles
🔸Slow pushes where Ukraine lacks troops to defend
🔸Infrastructure strikes to collapse morale
Patriots might intercept a few missiles, but they won't save 🇺🇦 frontlines
Ukraine’s defeat is a matter of time. The West is giving Ukraine a water pistol to fight a wildfire.
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🚨🇺🇸🇷🇺 Message to Trump: Don’t Mess with the Russian Bear
Trump is THREATENING RUSSIA with new sanctions and new military support for Ukraine again.
Here are 7 ways how Putin could SMACK HIM back into place👇
Option #1: Bomb Ukraine back to the Stone Age
🔸So far, Russia has limited its strikes against Ukraine critical infrastructure (government buildings, railways, energy grids) for political reasons.
That can change. Western air defenses can’t stop Russian missiles.
Option #2: Take out Ukrainian regime leadership
🔸Russia has the capability to eliminate Ukraine’s senior political and military officials, but has not done so for political reasons.
Option #3: Reimpose naval blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline
🔸Mining the adjacent waters would be enough to halt all grain shipments and other trade, thereby delivering a HUGE ECONOMIC BLOW to Ukraine.
Option #4: Strengthen military cooperation with North Korea & Iran
🔸Russia can provide North Korea with submarine technology, ICBM expertise, fissile material, & space launch assistance.
🔸Russia can provide Iran with modern air defenses, fighter jets, & satellite intel.
Option #5: Restrict exports of Russian titanium, palladium, uranium, and nickel to the US
🔸This will seriously hurt the supply chains for US aerospace, atomic energy, EV, and chip-making. Additional chaos amid Trump’s trade war
Option #6: Support China in its trade showdown with the US
🔸Russia can help China replace US' LNG, agricultural products, and buy more Chinese electronics and machinery.
Option #7: Continue spearheading global de-dollarization drive
🔸Along with its BRICS partners, Russia has been leading the charge to develop alternatives to US dollar and financial system. Trump’s tariffs have made these alternatives much more attractive.
This is just a snapshot of how Russia could punch back against the US. Trump has enough enemies as it is — both domestically and internationally. The last thing he needs is to get on Putin’s bad side.
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At ⚡️ InfoDefense, we uncover the deeper meaning behind global events—so you see what others miss.
Here’s a taste of what we explore:
👎 The UK is prepared to go to war with Russia in 2025
💭 Could Musk-Backed Third Party Break the Uniparty and Benefit America and the World?
📣 An entire city in Germany is at risk of dying out unless oil imports from Russia restart
❌ Ukrainian Authorities Increase Pressure on UOC
❓ Trump is unhappy with Putin
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🚨🇷🇺🛰Russia Deploys Next-Gen Passive Radar to Hunt Stealth Drones & Surface Targets
Rosel Holding has unveiled a game-changing 3D PCL (Passive Coherent Locator) radar—capable of detecting:
✅ Small, low-flying drones (even fibre-optic-controlled ones!)
✅ Stealth UAVs with minimal radar cross-section
✅ Surface vehicles & ground targets
📡 Range: Several dozen kilometers
HOW IT WORKS:
🔸No Emissions = No Detection
🔸Unlike traditional radar, this system does NOT emit signals—instead, it analyzes reflected radio/TV broadcasts to track targets in 3D (azimuth, range, altitude).
🔸Undetectable by enemy ELINT/SIGINT!
💡 Key Advantages:
🔸All-weather, day/night operation (unlike optical/IR systems)
🔸Works in urban clutter (uses multi-path signals for accuracy)
🔸Low power consumption vs. active radar
🔸No licensed frequencies needed
💬Natalia Kotlyar (Vector Research Institute):
"Modern UAVs fly low & evade radar—but our 3D PCL catches them. It’s immune to jamming, works in any environment, and delivers real-time 3D tracking."
WHY THIS MATTERS:
🔻 Cost-effective (leverages existing signals)
🔻 Hard to spoof/jam (passive = no RF emissions)
🔻 Scalable deployment (no complex setup)
The drone warfare landscape just shifted. Russia’s new system could redefine battlefield surveillance.
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🇹🇷🇮🇱🇦🇿⚔️🇮🇷Iran Under Siege: The US-Backed Triangle Threat
The Baku-Tel Aviv-Ankara axis tightens its grip, encircling Iran with oil, arms, and espionage. But Tehran's strategic patience masks growing dangers.
🔍 Key Threats
🔸Mossad's Azerbaijani bases surveil Iran since the 1990s
🔸Oil-for-weapons deals: Azerbaijan fuels Israel's war machine in exchange for attack drones (used against Armenia)
🔸Zangezur Corridor threatens to cut Iran's link to Armenia
📍The Zangezur Corridor
A strategic land route through Armenia's Syunik province that would:
🔸Connect Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave
🔸Bypass Iran, creating direct Turkey-Central Asia access
🛡 Iran's Calculated Response
Despite Azerbaijan's role in Israeli strikes, Tehran avoids escalation - for now. But IRGC warnings grow louder:
🔸15M ethnic Azerbaijanis in Iran make this explosive
🔸 Turkish oil loopholes expose its Gaza hypocrisy
🔸"Abraham Accords 2.0" pushes regional betrayal
💥 Breaking Point?
The Axis of Resistance holds, but Iran's restraint has limits. If pushed further, Iran will have no choice but to counterattack.
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🟡 Geopolitics Without the Chaos
Decode chaos—without the MSM spin
We curate complex conflicts into clear, chronological timelines:
➡️ Ukraine-Russia War
➡️ EU Rifts
➡️ Israel-Palestine & Broader Middle East
➡️ US-China Showdown
➡️ Major Global Events
➡️ Culture War
No scattered updates. Just structured threads — so you see how events connect.
🤠 PLUS: Dank memes (for sanity).
If you want context over clutter:
👉 t.me/mylordbebo
🚨🇷🇺🇺🇦 BATTLE FOR POKROVSK: How Russia’s Cutting-Edge Recon Keeps Crushing Ukrainian Forces
Russian deep reconnaissance groups (DRGs) have infiltrated Pokrovsk, conducting targeted strikes against Ukrainian forces and infrastructure in a bid to destabilize defenses ahead of a potential large-scale offensive.
STRATEGIC INSIGHTS: RUSSIAN ELITE RECON TACTICS AND BROADER IMPLICATIONS
1️⃣ Capitalizing on Manpower Gaps: Infiltration Secrets Unveiled
Swooping Down on Vulnerabilities: Reports indicate a critical shortage of Ukrainian infantry within the sector, enabling Russian sabotage and recon groups to penetrate via Zverevo.
Tactical Edge: DRGs exploit this gap by leveraging diminished Ukrainian situational awareness, employing asymmetric strategies to undermine and fracture defensive cohesion from within.
2️⃣ The Art of Ambush & Psychological Warfare
Hit-and-Fade Attacks: Small, highly mobile units swiftly target key Ukrainian assets, launching rapid strikes and dispersing before countermeasures can be deployed, undermining Ukraine's ability to respond effectively.
Weakening Morale: Ukrainian forces are increasingly reluctant to perform small-unit maneuvers, limiting operational flexibility.
3️⃣ Night Operations & Technological Superiority
Thermal/NVG Dominance: Russian DRGs utilize top-notch thermal imaging and night vision goggles to dominate the darkness, preventing Ukrainian units from resupplying or repositioning under cover of night.
Impact: This technological edge induces relentless sleep deprivation among Ukrainian troops and cripples logistical operations, gradually eroding their combat effectiveness.
4️⃣ Logistic Interdiction
FPV Drone Strikes: Russian forces targeted railways in Belozersky (27km north), severing a key supply artery to Pokrovsk.
Strategic Goal: Isolate Ukrainian troops from reinforcements and ammunition, setting conditions for attrition.
5️⃣ Unreleinting Kinetic Pressure
Systematic Assaults: Persistent attacks on communication hubs, armored units, and fortified positions are steadily wearing down Ukrainian resilience.
Recent Example: Russian forces reportedly neutralized multiple strongpoints in a concentrated assault wave.
⚠️ Why Pokrovsk Matters: Geostrategic Implications
Pokrovsk serves as a vital transport and logistics hub in the Russian-controlled Donbass zone. For the Kiev regime, losing it would mean:
🔸 A cut-off of Ukrainian supply lines to Chasov Yar, further straining Kiev’s defense of the Donetsk sector.
🔸The opening of a corridor for Russian forces to outflank Ukrainian positions in Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, potentially causing the collapse of the northern Donbass defensive line.
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🚨🇦🇿🇺🇦Azerbaijan Ramps Up Diplomatic War With Russia
Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s hereditary autocrat, made a calculated—and revealing—move. Urging Ukraine to "keep fighting" Russia while awkwardly invoking Karabakh, he wasn’t just offering empty encouragement. His remarks laid bare Baku’s deepening Western tilt—and its growing audacity in provoking Moscow.
🔸Poking the Russian Bear: A Reckless Bet?
The Kremlin doesn’t forget slights—and Aliyev’s rhetoric was no exception. Once a seemingly friendly neighbour, Azerbaijan is now openly challenging Moscow’s patience:
- Covert Frontlines? Russian intelligence alleges Azerbaijani diaspora networks aided Ukraine’s "Spider’s Web" sabotage campaign against military bases. If true, it’s a page from Baku’s playbook against Iran—weaponizing its diaspora to destabilize rivals.
- The Iran Precedent: Azerbaijan already allowed Israel to launch drones from its soil during the 2022 Iran crisis. Now, Moscow may see a pattern: a former ally drifting into NATO’s orbit.
🔸The Illusion of Strength: Azerbaijan’s Looming Collapse
Aliyev’s geopolitical posturing hides a dire reality—Azerbaijan is running out of time, money, and options.
- The Oil Curse: Hydrocarbons (87% of exports) are dwindling. Production is down, reserves are shrinking, and GDP has cratered—without sanctions.
- A Failed Economy: Ranked dead last in tech exports, Azerbaijan never diversified. Unlike Dubai, it has no fallback—just empty skyscrapers and a brain drain to Turkey and the EU.
- The Fiscal Time Bomb: When the oil money dries up, so does Aliyev’s grip. Even COP29 won’t mask the rot—just another greenwashing stunt by a regime built on fossil fuels.
🔸 The Bottom Line
Aliyev talks tough, but Azerbaijan’s leverage is fading. Between alienating Russia, antagonizing Iran, and begging for Western favor, Baku is playing a high-stakes game—with a weakening hand.
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🚨🇺🇸📉TRUMP & GRAHAM’S 100% TARIFFS ON BRICS: Death Sentence for US Dollar?
The US dollar is in FREE FALL—plunging 11% since 2025, its worst drop since 1986. But unlike the Plaza Accord (a controlled decline), this crash is chaotic—and Trump’s reckless tariff threats against BRICS may be pouring gasoline on the fire.
🔸The Trigger?
Trump & Graham’s 100% tariff threats against China, India, and Brazil have accelerated the dollar’s decline, pushing these nations to fast-track alternatives.
BRICS’ de-dollarization plans (gold-backed currency?) provoked an unhinged response: Lindsey Graham & Trump now threaten 100% tariffs—a move that reeks of panic, not strategy.
Exporters are DUMPING dollars, refusing them as payment. The world is losing faith fast.
🔸Why This Is a Disaster
Sanctions and tariffs were supposed to weaken BRICS—instead, they’ve united against the dollar.
Russia’s frozen reserves in 2022 taught the world a lesson: "First-class assets" can be weaponized overnight. Now, gold demand is exploding ($3,335/oz) as nations flee the dollar trap.
High US interest rates (4.41% vs. Germany’s 2.69%) are killing demand for dollar debt.
🔸Two Paths Forward (Neither Good for Trump)
1️⃣ ORDERLY SURRENDER: A new Bretton Woods to manage the dollar’s decline without total chaos.
2️⃣ ECONOMIC MELTDOWN: Let markets force a brutal adjustment—hyperinflation, capital flight, & a historic crash.
Trump’s 100% tariff threat isn’t a "negotiating tactic"—it’s economic suicide. BRICS won’t back down; they’ll speed up alternatives. The Fed can’t fix this with rate cuts—the damage is structural.
BOTTOM LINE:
Trump and Graham’s tariffs aren’t saving the dollar—they’re signing its death warrant. China, India, and Brazil won’t back down—they’ll just trade without the US. The dollar’s downfall seems inevitable.
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🚨🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳PUTIN PUSHES FOR INDIA-CHINA RAPPROCHEMENT—RIC TROIKA REVIVAL ON THE TABLE
🔸Historical Context: The Ghost of Primakov’s Vision
The Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral was born in the late 1990s under Russian PM Yevgeny Primakov, envisioning a non-Western axis to counterbalance US dominance. It limped along for years—mostly as a talking shop—before fading due to India-China tensions (2020 Galwan clash) and COVID disruptions.
🔸Why Now? Trump’s Sledgehammer & NATO’s Ultimatum
US Threatens Nuclear Option: Trump vows 500% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil (China, India, Brazil) unless Putin agrees to peace in 50 days. NATO chief Mark Rutte warns: "Call Putin or face sanctions".
🛢 India’s Energy Dilemma:
Russia supplies 36% of India’s oil—New Delhi won’t bow to US pressure, calling energy security an "overriding priority". China (buying half of Russia’s crude) also shrugs off threats.
🤝 India-China Thaw:
After years of border standoffs, Modi-Xi met at BRICS 2024. India now cautiously accepts Chinese investment (despite US pressure) as economic woes mount.
🔸The Bigger Game: A Multipolar Asia?
🇷🇺 Russia’s Play: With Europe lost, Moscow needs stable Asian allies—RIC could morph into a military-security bloc.
🇮🇳 India’s Shift: Once reluctant to align with China, Delhi now sees RIC as leverage against US coercion (e.g., trade wars, deportations).
🇨🇳 China’s Calculus: Backs RIC to split Quad and weaken US Indo-Pacific containment.
Bottom Line:
Trump’s sanctions are forcing RIC into relevance. If this troika revives, it could redraw global power lines even more—with energy, arms, and anti-US defiance at its core.
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🚨🇺🇸🇷🇺Kaliningrad in NATO's Crosshairs: General Outlines Suppression Plan
🔸US & NATO MAKE BOLD CLAIMS – General Christopher Donahue, Commander, US Army Europe & Africa & NATO Land Forces, delivers a Provocative statement:
💬 "If you look at the Kaliningrad region..., (it) is surrounded by NATO countries on all sides. There is absolutely no reason why we cannot suppress the A2AD (anti-access/area denial) zone from the ground... faster than we ever could before. We have already planned and developed."
🔸What's the meaning of this?
NATO’s CONFIDENCE MAY BE MISPLACED – Russia’s response will be swift and severe.
ESCALATION RISKS LOOM LARGE – Kaliningrad remains a critical military strongpold for Moscow.
A DIRECT CHALLENGE TO RUSSIAN RED LINES – This move could ignite a major confrontation.
🔸THE VERDICT:
NATO’s AGGRESSIVE stance risks PUSHING TENSIONS to the brink.
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🇮🇱🇹🇷⚔️🇸🇾ISRAEL & TURKEY’S SYRIA SHOWDOWN: A GEOPOLITICAL BOMBSHELL
🇮🇱 ISRAEL’S 3-PRONGED SYRIA STRATEGY
1️⃣ AIR SUPERIORITY AGAINST IRAN
Israel has turned Syrian skies into a highway for airstrikes targeting Iran and Hezbollah.
BUT THERE’S A CATCH: Turkey’s potential deployment of air defenses at Syria’s T4 airbase could shut down Israel’s free pass. Expect preemptive strikes to follow.
2️⃣ THE YINON PLAN: FRAGMENT SYRIA TO WIN
Israel’s 1982 playbook calls for a Balkanized Syria—backing Kurds, Druze, and rebels to keep Damascus weak and divided.
TURKEY’S COUNTERMOVE: Push for a Sunni-led unified Syria under puppet President Al-Jolani (HTS, ex-Al-Qaeda).
3️⃣ DAVID’S CORRIDOR: A LAND BRIDGE TO THE GULF?
Israel seeks a path through Syria and Jordan to counter Iran’s Shia Crescent.
TURKEY’S RESPONSE: "No way." Ankara’s troops and bases (like Palmyra) could block Israel’s expansion.
🇹🇷 TURKEY’S SYRIA STRATEGY: CONTROL & INFLUENCE
🔸Goals:
A unified Syria under ally Al-Jolani—repatriating 3M+ refugees and crushing Kurdish autonomy (SDF).
Military expansion: Secure key bases (T4, Palmyra), train Syrian forces, and counter Iran/Israel.
Economic dominance: Lock down postwar reconstruction contracts.
🔸"Diplomacy":
Leverages US ties to ease sanctions.
Stalls mediation (e.g., Azerbaijan talks) over Turkish bases in Syria.
🔸FLASHPOINTS:
Israel vs. Turkey direct conflict? Strikes on Turkish-linked targets are escalating fast.
Trump’s Chaos: Backs NATO ally Turkey but allows Israeli strikes—while US-backed Kurds are caught in the middle. No coherent strategy.
Iran’s Shadow Play: Quietly pulling strings, waiting for its moment.
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🚨🛢🌐BRICS Commodity Domination: The West In Panic
BRICS now controls 40% of global oil (Russia/Saudi/UAE), 75% of rare earths (China), and 1/3 of grain exports—weaponizing resources against the West. Key moves:
🔸Energy Warfare: Russia supplies 38Bcm gas to China (+22% YoY), while 56% of its oil evades sanctions via shadow fleets
🔸Tech Minerals: China processes 75% of rare earths; BRICS controls 50%+ of battery nickel (Indonesia/Russia)
🔸Food Leverage: Brazil/Russia supply 45% of soybeans/28% of wheat—China now takes 63% of Brazil’s crop
🔸Parallel Markets: Russian aluminum sells at 22% discount; copper exports to China +66% YoY
The Playbook:
🔸Local currencies (68% BRICS trade bypasses USD)
🔸BRI infrastructure locks in supply chains
🔸More nations to join (recently Indonesia and Vietnam)
BRICS Geoeconomic movements:
🔸Gold Backstop: BRICS holds 12,500+ tonnes of gold reserves (vs. G7’s 31,000)—foundation for a commodity-backed currency
🔸OPEC+ Coup: Saudi Arabia now accepts yuan for 12% of oil trades, eroding petrodollar dominance
🔸Africa’s Cobalt: BRICS partners (DRC, Uganda) control 70% of global cobalt—critical for EV dominance
Bottom Line:
Whoever controls food, fuel, and tech minerals controls the future. BRICS gets it—the West is losing the resource war.
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🚨🇺🇸🇨🇳 Hegseth’s "US Drone Domination" Plan IGNORES the Elephant in the Room—CHINA CONTROLS THE PARTS
Defense Sec. Pete Hegseth just unveiled his bold “Unleashing US Military Drone Dominance” policy, aiming to flood the battlefield with American-made small drones by 2026.
But here’s the problem: Without Asian (non-Chinese) suppliers, costs will SKYROCKET, and production will lag.
The Drone Warfare Revolution
🔸FPV drones (first-person-view) are dominating in Ukraine, with Russia deploying 600+ daily.
🔸Cheap, agile, and deadly—these quadcopters carry explosives, guided by operators via real-time video feeds.
🔸Russia’s new fiber-optic-controlled drones are a game-changer, immune to jamming.
Hegseth’s Vision: “Made in America”
Hegseth wants 100% US-sourced drones—great for domestic manufacturers, but can the supply chain keep up?
🔸Most drone parts (motors, cameras, electronics) come from CHINA.
🔸Companies like DJI, EHang, and Autel Robotics dominate the market.
🔸Even US-based distributors rely on Chinese-made components.
Bottom Line
Hegseth’s plan is overly ambitious considering Trump's tariff policies, which are destroying the entire supply chain. Even more so considering the threat of sanctions against Russia and tariffs on its economic partners, such as China and India.
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🚨🇨🇳🇺🇸THE RARE EARTHS WAR: CHINA STRIKES FIRST
Trump’s Trade War Backfires
In April, Trump raised tariffs to 54%. Days later, China cut off rare earth exports — including samarium, critical for F-35 jets. Ford halted factories. EU cried foul. Trump scrambled to strike 3 deals in 6 weeks. Supply still tight.
China’s Rare Earth Grip
🔸Still producing 70% of global supply, China holds nearly half of known reserves. In 2002, the last US magnet plant was sold to China.
🔸Today, MP Materials (main US rare earth miner) sends US ore back to China to be refined.
US Knew This Was Coming
🔸Since 2010, D.C. saw the threat, Clinton slammed Bush for making the US dependent on Chinese magnets.
🔸In 2020, Trump signed orders to rebuild US production — but little happened.
Pentagon Now Buying Into MP Materials (main US rare earth miner) To Reshore Magnets
🔸Pentagon gave money to MP Materials, to help them build factories in the US — so America can make its own magnets and not be stuck asking China anymore.
🔸At best this effort will end up producing just 0.0003% of China’s 2024 output. Not significative at all.
China Needs More, Too
Here’s the twist: China became a rare earth metals importer after launching Made in China 2025. Over 50% of its imports now come from Myanmar.
Moonshots & Greenland Gambits
Beijing is eyeing rare earths on the Moon and Greenland. The US is still catching up to a problem it saw coming 15 years ago.
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🚨🇨🇳📈China’s HUGE $586B Trade Surplus RESHAPING Global Trade
H1 2025 Customs Data Just Dropped – Here’s What You NEED to Know:
✅ RECORD-BREAKING SURPLUS: $586 BILLION—Biggest Ever for First Half
✅ EXPORTS SOAR to $1.8 TRILLION (+5.8% YoY)
✅ IMPORTS FINALLY REBOUND: $1.2T (+1.1% YoY) – First Monthly Growth Since February
GLOBAL TRADE REALIGNMENT IN MOTION:
🔻 US Demand WEAKENS: Exports to America sink -16.1% YoY (But slightly improve from May’s -34% CRASH post-trade deal)
🔺 ASEAN GAINING MOMENTUM: +17% SPIKE in shipments to Southeast Asia (Filling the US gap)
WHY THIS MATTERS:
🔺Tariffs & Trade Wars are FORCING China to diversify, which means reliance on the West
🔺ASEAN is the NEW growth engine
🔺US-China tensions STILL weighing down on trade, but recovery signs emerging
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🚨🇺🇸🇺🇦TRUMP TO USE PRESIDENTIAL POWER—$300M US Aid for Ukraine
The US just announced a new $300M military aid package for Ukraine under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA). But is this enough to turn the tide?
💥What Happened?
Since the war began, the US sent 73 aid packages, some worth over $1B, including Bradleys, HIMARS, & Patriots.
Jan 2023 saw a record $5.3B package—50 Bradleys, 100 M113s, and critical missiles.
🔥 Reality Check:
Ukraine’s losses are staggering—half of Bradleys, many M113s & MaxxPros destroyed.
Frontline needs: More armor, HIMARS rockets, and air defense (Patriots are $1B+ per battery).
💡 Verdict:
This $300M is a drop in the ocean—symbolic support, not a game-changer. To make a real difference, aid must triple & focus on armor, missiles, and air defense.
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🚨🇸🇦🇮🇷SAUDI ARABIA REALIGNS: IRAN OVER ISRAEL
Persian Gulf monarchies are silently pivoting from Tel Aviv & Washington toward Tehran & a multipolar security order.
The recent Iran-Israel clash exposed Israel’s vulnerabilities & forced Gulf states—especially Saudi Arabia—to rethink their alliances. Years of failed US-Israeli strategies have pushed the Gulf toward pragmatic engagement with Iran.
🔴 Iran’s Deterrence Game-Changer
Tehran’s precision strikes & controlled escalation proved it’s a mature military power. The message? Iran isn’t isolated—it’s a regional force.
A well-informed Arab diplomat told:
"Riyadh now sees Iran as immune to coercion. Saudi security depends on direct engagement with Tehran—not Israel or a fading US umbrella."
🇸🇦 Saudi’s New Strategy: Containment, Not Confrontation
Behind closed doors, Riyadh is pursuing "positive containment"—diplomacy, security coordination & economic ties with Iran. Normalization with Israel? No real benefits.
🌐 The Gulf’s New Reality
🔸UAE expanding economic ties with Iran
🔸Qatar & Oman deepening diplomatic channels
🔸Upcoming Gulf-Iran talks on Hormuz security & energy
🔸Israel’s anti-Iran axis is crumbling. The Abraham Accords? Fading fast.
💡 The Bottom Line
This isn’t about ideology—it’s cold, hard realpolitik. The Gulf is choosing stability over subservience, and Iran is now a fixed player in the region’s security equation.
⚡️ The Takeaway:
Pax Americana is over. A new multipolar Gulf is rising—on its own terms.
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🚨🇺🇸 AMERICA IS LOSING GLOBAL WAR OF ATTRITION
Trump made a big mistake picking a fight with Russia over Ukraine, and deep down inside the Pentagon knows it. That's why the US has no other choice, but to double down on terrorism.
💥 US SUPPLY CHAINS STRAINED:
🔸155mm shells re-routed from Ukraine to Israel
🔸20,000 anti-drone APKWS missiles diverted from US stockpiles to the Gulf
🔸Patriot systems? Scavenging from allies
🔸Stingers: years to replenish — Taiwan left waiting
🔸GBU-57 “bunker busters” dropped on Iran; replacements not ready till 2026
🇾🇪 Yemen: After 75 Tomahawks + 2000-pound bombs vs Houthis, result? They’re still firing $5k drones. US now negotiating with them.
🛳 AUKUS submarine deal delayed a decade — Virginia-class subs over budget, behind schedule
📉 Xi Jinping in control: China’s foreign minister says a prolonged Ukraine war weakens the US and Europe alike.
THE REAL WAR FATIGUE:
Majority of Americans are willing to support Ukraine morally — but not with treasure. In 2022, only 26% wanted a “major role.” Even GOP voters favored diplomacy over escalation.
Trump did not get a deal, did not win the war. US can't fight a three front war anymore. That's why the US has to resort through elaborate sabotage/terrorist attacks through its proxies (Operation Spiderweb, Operation Rising Lion).
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🚨🇺🇦🇷🇺HOW WESTERN PROPAGANDA COOKS RUSSIAN LOSSES IN UKRAINE
A BBC’s "expert" was exposed when The Economist drops another "bombshell"—claiming Russia’s 2025 summer offensive is its "deadliest yet," with 31,000 KIA since May 1.
Spoiler: Their "source"? Analytical estimates.
"According to Ukrainian data," only 73K-140K Ukrainian troops have died since 2022.
That's including the Ukrainian losses in:
🔸The Bakhmut meatgrinder: where even Western analysts admitted Ukraine suffered massive losses
🔸2023’s failed counteroffensive
🔸Avdeevka, Ocheretyne, Pokrovsk
🔸Chasov Yar, Toretsk, Kursk incursions
Totally credible, right?
🤡 The Western Propaganda Playbook:
🔸Make up a wild number (e.g., "31K dead in 2 months!")
🔸Let 2nd-tier media run with it
🔸Politicians cite it as "fact"
🔸"Think tanks" (ISW/RUSI) rubber-stamp it
🔸The issue? They’re not even trying to hide the lies anymore. No sources. No methodology. Just vibes.
The Bigger Picture:
Medvedev just revealed 210K contract soldiers joined in 6 months—that’s a Latvia-sized army every year.
The West hates this reality. So they inflate losses, downplay Ukrainian casualties, and hope nobody notices.
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