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📈We track everything that moves the markets: fast news, clear context, real narratives. 📩 Reach out: @strategy
JUST IN: The US Treasury plans to boost its cash balance to $500 billion by the end of July following an increase in the debt ceiling.
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10 Ingredients of Great Traders
Success in trading isn't about predictions or stock picking — it's about mindset, risk, and process. Here’s what sets top traders apart:
• Passion — fuels the discipline and study required to succeed.
• Clear goals — knowing why you trade keeps you focused.
• Perseverance — long-term success comes to those who don’t quit.
• Resilience — bouncing back from drawdowns is essential.
• Backtesting — testing systems avoids costly real-time mistakes.
• Edge awareness — only trade when your strategy gives you an advantage.
• Positive expectancy — bigger wins than losses, or high win rates.
• Risk control — cut losers fast, let winners run.
• Flexibility — adapt to what the market gives, not your bias.
• Discipline — follow a plan, not emotions.
Trading is a performance craft — the edge is in execution.
Quick guide to spotting fair value using VWAP, volume profile, and order book data.
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Charlie Munger’s 5 Investing Mistakes to Avoid
Munger once said, “If people weren’t so often wrong, we wouldn’t be so rich.” His point? Most investors lose money not by bad luck, but by repeating avoidable mistakes.
Here are 5 deadly errors Munger warned against:
1. Emotional investing — Letting fear or greed guide decisions leads to poor outcomes. Stick to logic, not sentiment.
2. Market timing — Trying to predict highs and lows rarely works. The real gains come from patience and long-term holding.
3. Over- or under-diversification — Too little risk spreads you thin. Too much exposure increases vulnerability. Balance is key.
4. Unrealistic expectations — Markets are volatile and unpredictable. Stick to sound businesses and ignore short-term hype.
5. Failing to learn from mistakes — Analyze losses. Accept you’re wrong sometimes. Learn and adjust.
Munger’s legacy? Master your psychology, think long term, and profit where others fail.
The chances of no rate cuts this month have shot up to 95% in the betting markets
Higher for longer is still the name of the game
How to Become a Profitable Trader in 180 Days
1. Law of Large Numbers
You need at least 100 trades for your edge to show. Don’t judge your system on a few trades — results are random in the short term, meaningful in the long run.
2. Pick a Trading Style
Study different trading approaches (e.g. from Market Wizards), pick what fits you best (scalping, swing, position trading), and master it.
3. Create a Trading Plan
Answer these:
– What markets and timeframes do you trade?
– What’s your risk per trade (max 1%)?
– Entry criteria?
– Stop-loss placement?
– Take-profit logic?
4. Stick to the Plan
Execute 100 trades strictly by your plan. Start small. Don’t change rules after a few losses. Consistency is key.
5. Track Every Trade
Log entries, exits, setups, mistakes, and screenshots. This helps you spot patterns, errors, and areas to improve.
6. Check Your Edge
Use expectancy:
(Win% × Avg Win) – (Loss% × Avg Loss) – costs
If it’s positive — congrats, your system has an edge.
JUST IN: Donald Trump is expected to announce a new trade deal today.
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US labor market demographics are shifting fast
Over the past 3 months, the number of foreign-born workers in the US fell by 3.4% — the sharpest drop since 2007 (excluding the 2020 pandemic).
That’s a decline of 1.1 million people, bringing the total to 32.6 million — the lowest since December 2024. This follows a record 5.0% surge (up 1.6 million) in the previous 3 months.
Overall, since 2020, the foreign-born labor force has grown by 6.3 million, or 24%.
Meanwhile, the number of native-born workers rose by 1.8 million (+1.3%) in the past 3 months, hitting a record 138.8 million.
Tesla drops 7% premarket on Musk's political move
Tesla shares are down 7% in premarket trading as investors react to Elon Musk's announcement of forming a new political party.
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Key Events This Week
— Wednesday, July 9
• FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD)
— Thursday, July 10
• Unemployment Claims (USD)
• FOMC Member Waller Speaks (USD)
— Friday, July 11
• GDP m/m (GBP)
Successful trading is like getting pregnant — everyone congratulates you when you manage it but no one asks how many times you got f*cked first.
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you can’t build long-term consistency if your self-worth collapses after one red day
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JUST IN: Tariffs will begin to be paid on August 1, 2025, with no changes or extensions allowed.
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Citi boosts Nvidia target to $190
Citi raised its price target for Nvidia to $190 per share — implying a 19.5% upside from current levels.
The revision comes as investor confidence in AI and data center demand continues to fuel NVDA’s momentum.
Taiwan ramps up exports to the US at record pace
Amid shifting global supply chains driven by US tariff policies, Taiwan is deepening its ties with the American market.
In June, Taiwan’s exports reached a record $53.32 billion (+33.7% YoY). Shipments to the US soared to $17.27 billion — an all-time high and a stunning 90.9% increase from last year.
Yields rise — with or without tariffs
Trump’s tariff noise is back — and so is the 10Y yield at 4.40%.
That’s just ~20 bps below the recent highs seen when he paused tariffs for 90 days.
But the key shift?
Yields are climbing regardless of trade war headlines.
The market is now pricing in one dominant factor:
Exploding deficit spending is driving long-term rates.
US–EU trade tensions simmer, but no blowup yet
Despite expectations, Trump hasn’t sent a tariff threat letter to the EU — for now.
• Reuters reports ongoing intensive trade talks.
• A smooth deal seems unlikely given Trump’s high-drama, pressure-heavy approach.
• The EU’s complex structure and relative leverage make negotiations especially tough.
We're likely only mid-stage in Trump's typical negotiation cycle — and escalation still looks inevitable.
JUST IN: Trump announced a tariff on Japan starting August 1st and shared a trade letter regarding South Korea. The U.S. plans to impose a 25% tariff on goods from South Korea, according to Truth Social.
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S&P 500 adds $11.4T since April lows
The market rebound has been nothing short of historic.
• S&P 500 hit a record $55.7T in market cap last week
• That’s a $11.4T surge since the April bottom
• Nvidia alone added $1.6T, reaching $3.9T
• YoY growth: +$6.9T or +14.6%
One of the fastest and largest recoveries in history.
Japan real wages see sharpest drop since 2023
Real wages in Japan fell 2.9% in May — the steepest decline since 2023 and far worse than the expected 1.7% drop — as inflation continues to outpace nominal pay, which rose just 1%.
With elections in two weeks, PM Ishiba’s proposed cash handout struggles to gain support. All eyes now turn to the Bank of Japan’s rate decision on July 31.
Asia session break = like a Monday range.
It’s the first session of the day — a base to frame reversion or continuation setups.
Subsequent breaks often offer clean opportunities.
Keep this in mind heading into the new week.
OPEC+ to Raise Oil Production More Than Expected
OPEC+ will increase oil output by 548,000 bpd in August, surpassing the expected 411,000 bpd.
Key points:
— The group cites stable economic outlook and low inventories.
— This move accelerates the unwinding of the 2023 production cuts (2.2M bpd).
— Strategy appears to shift from price defense to market share, targeting US shale competition.
— Further hikes may be discussed at the next meeting on August 3.
— Despite plans, actual production may lag behind the announced increase.
5 Traits of People Who Actually Build Wealth
Here’s what sets true wealth builders apart:
1. Delayed Gratification – They sacrifice short-term pleasure for long-term gains.
2. Self-Discipline – They control emotions and stick to their financial plans.
3. Calculated Risk-Taking – They take risks, but only after careful analysis.
4. Lifelong Learning – They constantly improve their financial knowledge.
5. Goal-Driven Focus – They stay committed to long-term goals, no matter the setbacks.
Wealth isn’t just about money — it’s about mindset.
trading doesn’t reward more information - it rewards more clarity
more filters, more simplicity, more conviction, more removal - not addition
refine your system down to only what matters, everything else is noise
JUST IN: US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that Trump will implement April 2nd level tariffs on nations without trade deals with the US starting August 1st, further extending the tariff pause from July 9th to August 1st.
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JUST IN: Elon Musk has established the "America Party" to compete against both Republicans and Democrats.
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