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US Wage Growth Stalling?
13.3% of Americans haven’t received a pay raise — the highest in 4 years.
That’s up 3 points in 2 years, now worse than in 2001 and on par with 2008.
With CPI inflation at 2.4%, many are seeing real wage declines.
Headline jobs data looks strong — but under the surface, the labor market is clearly softening.
The crisis continues:
Since the debt ceiling was raised on July 3rd, US debt is now up $410 BILLION in 2 days.
This comes after the US Treasury ended "extraordinary measures," raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion.
We are in the midst of the US largest crisis.
President Trump says Fed Chair Powell "demeans the great credit of the USA."
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Risk appetite surges as investors pile into leveraged ETFs
A record $135 billion has now flowed into leveraged ETFs — the highest level ever.
Risk-on mode is clearly back.
Trump posted this on Truth Social.
The 50% copper tariff is now official.
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FOMC Minutes:
– Several participants noted that the federal funds rate may be close to its neutral level.
– Some participants indicated they would be open to considering a rate cut as early as the July meeting, if the data aligns with their expectations.
– Fed staff now expect higher real GDP growth in 2025 compared to the previous forecast, along with lower inflation.
– A few participants stated that the most likely and appropriate scenario involves no rate cuts in 2025.
JUST IN: Federal Reserve meetings reveal differing opinions on future rate adjustments.
• A few members expressed openness to a rate cut by July, contingent on data.
• Other members suggested no rate cuts would be warranted before 2025.
The conflicting views might cause uncertainty in the markets, influencing investor expectations and impacting the bond and stock markets.Читать полностью…
U.S. Market Cap-to-GDP Hits Record 208%
The U.S. stock market is now valued at 208% of GDP — an all-time high.
That’s a +43pp surge since April and a full double in 9 years.
For context:
• Dot-com peak (2000): 142%
• Long-term average: ~85%
NVIDIA becomes the first company to reach a $4 trillion market cap.
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Apple Targets F1 Broadcast Rights in the U.S.
Apple is reportedly in talks to secure U.S. Formula 1 broadcast rights for 2025, challenging ESPN’s current deal (FT).
The push comes after the success of Apple’s “F1: The Movie,” which brought in $293M in its first 10 days.
candlestick patterns:
don't just blindly trade these.
set strict conditions that allow for proper testing.
once you determine a pattern has an edge that can either help determine bias or execute through data is when you can start to implement.
some pattern examples ↑
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The probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 has dropped to 19% — the lowest level since January 2025.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump emphasizes various topics, including trade tariffs, energy, and AI leadership.
- Trade Tariffs: Trump suggests tariffs could increase and believes he was lenient on trade.
- Energy: Criticizes wind energy as costly and detrimental to planes and valleys; comments on solar energy's reliance on Chinese plastic.
- AI & China: Claims the U.S. leads China significantly in AI.
- Federal Reserve: Calls for Congress to investigate Fed Chair Jerome Powell, criticizing rate cuts before the election which he claims favored Biden.
JUST IN: The S&P 500 reaches a new record, increasing 30% from its low in April 2025.
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JUST IN: Dimon stated that the real data on the U.S. economy is extremely difficult to interpret and suggested there's a 40%-50% probability of higher U.S. interest rates.
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What is Position Trading?
Position trading is a long-term strategy where traders hold positions for weeks, months, or even years — aiming to catch large market moves. Unlike day or swing traders, position traders focus on the bigger picture, ignoring daily price noise.
Key traits:
– Hold few trades with high conviction
– Rely on weekly/monthly charts
– Often based on fundamentals, macro trends, or strong technical signals
– Minimal screen time — focus is on the big narrative
Position traders aim to ride major trends and capture most of the move. Patience and conviction are their biggest edge — and also their biggest risk.
Some of history’s greatest trades — like Michael Burry’s short on subprime mortgages — were position trades.
Buffett expects a 50% market correction
According to Warren Buffett, markets are now 1.5–2 standard deviations above the norm — a clear sign of overheating.
All major indices are at extremes, pointing to overbought and overvalued stocks.
And with crypto tightly correlated to equities, both markets could correct together.
Mean Reversion Strategy
Price often reverts to its average after extreme moves. Mean reversion traders exploit this by:
— Spotting overbought/oversold levels using tools like Bollinger Bands or Keltner Channels
— Buying dips or shorting spikes near the 3rd standard deviation
— Targeting a return to the 20-day moving average
— Using stop-losses in case the trend continues
It’s not foolproof — but with proper risk/reward, it’s powerful in ranging markets.
Small Business Investment Hits Post-COVID Low
— U.S. small business CapEx index dropped to 50 in June — the lowest since 2020
— Sharpest monthly decline since April 2020 (NFIB)
— Current levels mirror the 2008 crisis
— Future CapEx plans fell to 21 — near 5-year lows
— Hiring plans rose slightly to 13, but remain weak
Economic uncertainty is putting pressure on small firms’ growth plans.
JUST IN: Google stock, $GOOGL, declines following reports that OpenAI intends to launch its own web browser.
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JUST IN: Sales on the first day of the four-day Amazon Prime Day event declined by 41%.
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JUST IN: The United States will impose new tariffs on several countries starting August 1, according to Donald Trump.
• A 25% tariff will be imposed on the Philippines and Moldova.
• A 30% tariff will be applied to Iraq, Algeria, and Libya.
These tariffs could lead to increased costs for businesses importing goods from these countries and may impact investor sentiment and market stability.Читать полностью…
10 Technical Trading Rules for Consistent Success
1. Trade with the trend – Start with the weekly chart, then zoom into daily/hourly.
2. Buy dips in bull markets, short rallies in bear markets.
3. Support/resistance often hold — but early breakouts tend to fail.
4. More tests = higher chance of breakout, and levels often flip roles.
5. Trendlines are your guide — draw left to right through higher highs or lower lows.
6. Chart patterns = visual signals of potential breakouts.
7. Use moving averages for entries, exits, and trailing stops.
8. Combine MAs with RSI for better profit-taking on stretched moves.
9. 52-week/all-time highs are bullish, lows are bearish.
10. Above the 200-day MA = uptrend, below = danger zone.
Price action over prediction. Discipline beats opinion.
Dip Buying Set for a Historic Year
“Buying the dip” is on track for its second-strongest performance in the past 40 years — highlighting just how rewarding 2025 has been for patient bulls.
SpaceX is now worth nearly $400B
Elon Musk’s SpaceX has hit a ~$400 billion valuation after a recent secondary share sale — up from ~$350B in December.
The key driver? Starlink. With around 4 million users, the satellite internet business is expected to bring in $15B in revenue in 2025.
Meanwhile, the company’s rockets — Falcon and Starship — are backed by a $22B contract pipeline from NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense.
10 Signs You’re Becoming Your Best Self — Warren Buffett Style
Warren Buffett’s wisdom goes beyond investing. Here are 10 signs, rooted in his philosophy, that show you’re leveling up as a person:
1. You invest in yourself — Learning daily compounds like interest.
2. You choose better company — Surrounding yourself with strong characters lifts you up.
3. You make time to think — Deep thinking leads to better decisions.
4. You protect your reputation — It takes decades to build, minutes to destroy.
5. You define success personally — Not by money, but by doing what you love well.
6. You care for your mind and body — They’re your lifelong assets.
7. You break bad habits early — Before they become chains.
8. You master your emotions — Discipline beats impulse.
9. You focus on what you can control — Inner scorecard over outside opinions.
10. You think long-term — Success grows from seeds planted today.
Real success is about who you become — not just what you earn.
JUST IN: Donald Trump plans to announce new tariffs soon.
• Trump suggested a 50% tariff on copper.
• He threatened a 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals.
• Believes that Elon Musk's party will offer support.
The introduction of high tariffs could significantly impact the respective industries, potentially leading to increased costs for consumers and affecting investor sentiment.Читать полностью…
JUST IN: Donald Trump, when asked about Epstein, responded, "We have Texas, we have this, I can't believe you're still asking about him."
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