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Trading Journal Cheat Sheet
A trading journal is a tool for self-awareness. It helps identify psychological mistakes and improve discipline.
Why keep a journal:
• Trading is mostly psychological.
• A journal reveals recurring errors and helps fix them.
• No analysis = no progress.
What to log for each trade:
1. Entry signal and reasoning
2. Emotions at entry
3. Position size and stop-loss
4. Profit target or exit strategy
5. Emotions at exit
6. Execution mistakes and lessons learned
7. Confidence in yourself and the system
8. Stress level throughout the trade
What to track:
• Position sizing
• Risk/reward ratio
• Win rate and profit factor
• Size of winners and losers
• Best setups and time of day
Takeaway:
Journaling isn’t about perfect trades — it’s about consistent execution. Measure, analyze, improve.
US Macro Data:
• Nonfarm Payrolls (June): 147K (forecast: 100K / previous: 139K)
• Unemployment Rate (June): 4.1% (forecast: 4.2% / previous: 4.2%)
• Initial Jobless Claims: 233K (forecast: 240K / previous: 236K)
U.S. Federal Housing regulator urges Congress to launch an investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
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US Housing Is the Least Affordable in 35 Years
Affording a home has never been tougher:
– Median earners now spend nearly 40% of their income on mortgage, taxes, and insurance
– The historical average? Just 29%
– In the 2008 crash, it dipped to 22%
For housing to rebound:
→ Home prices need to fall ~15%
→ Mortgage rates need to drop ~1.5%
Until then, the market stays frozen.
Linda Raschke’s 12 Timeless Trading Rules (Condensed)
Market Wizard Linda Raschke distilled decades of experience into these core principles:
1. Buy the first pullback after a new high, sell first rally after a new low.
2. Morning reversals are stronger than afternoon ones.
3. Big gaps often lead to trends.
4. Watch how price acts around previous day’s high/low — key pivot zones.
5. First and last trading hours reveal the day’s strength.
6. High volume into close = likely continuation next day.
7. First hour’s range sets the tone — trade early if trend is clear.
8. Four timeless principles:
• Trends are more likely to continue than reverse
• Momentum leads price
• Trends end with climaxes
• Markets alternate between range and breakout
9. Nobody knows the future — trade what is, not what might be.
Reactive > Predictive.
JUST IN: The possibility of a Fed rate cut in July is considered unlikely, but recent weak payroll data has increased speculation.
• Allspring’s Michael Bird mentions a July rate cut is improbable without significant negative data.
• Futures markets currently estimate a 25% chance of a July cut after weak ADP payroll data.
This shift in expectations could lead to increased market volatility as investors react to changing forecasts for Fed policy.Читать полностью…
JUST IN: President Trump announced he has finalized a trade agreement with Vietnam.
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Microsoft to Cut Up to 9,000 Jobs
In a new wave of layoffs, Microsoft plans to let go as many as 9,000 employees, according to The Seattle Times.
JUST IN: UK Prime Minister Starmer is not supporting Chancellor Reeves in the wake of the welfare controversy, reports the Financial Times.
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The Senate’s version of Donald Trump’s tax cut bill will cost the bottom 20% of taxpayers an average of $560 a year while giving an average boost of $6,055 to those at the top end, per Bloomberg.
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Mastering Internal Range Liquidity and External Range Liquidity
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The Polymarket for Musk forming his own party by end of year are soaring.
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U.S. money supply hits record high — again
In May, the U.S. M2 money supply rose 4.5% YoY to a new all-time high of $21.94 trillion — marking 19 straight months of growth.
Inflation-adjusted M2 is also up 2.1% — the biggest jump since early 2022.
Since 2020, the money supply has grown by nearly $7 trillion.
The result? The U.S. dollar keeps losing long-term buying power.
Global stock rally hits 10-year high
About 55% of markets in the MSCI ACWI just hit 52-week highs — the most in a decade. No market hit a new low.
Nearly 90% are trading above key moving averages, showing strong momentum.
Risk appetite is global right now.
The 10Y Note Yield surges to 4.36% after the June jobs report crushes expectations.
While the unemployment rate was expected to rise to 4.3%, it FELL to 4.1%.
The bond market thinks Powell has even more of a reason to not cut rates here.
UK markets rebounded after PM Starmer confirmed Rachel Reeves will stay Chancellor long-term.
• 10-year gilt yields fell 6 bps to 4.55%.
• 30-year gilt yields dropped 7 bps to 5.35%.
Trump’s Vietnam Tariffs Might Actually Help China
Trump’s new deal slaps a 20% tariff on Vietnamese imports — harsher than the current 10%, but better than the threatened 46%. It aims to stop China from bypassing U.S. tariffs via Vietnam. But there’s a catch.
China isn’t just trans-shipping goods. It’s using origin washing — sending raw materials to Vietnam, turning them into finished products (like clothes or electronics), and exporting them as “Made in Vietnam.” That dodges China-specific tariffs entirely.
Firms like BYD already shifted production to Vietnam years ago, anticipating this exact outcome. So while Trump’s deal looks tough on paper, China’s been preparing for it — and is already playing by the new rules.
Orange juice futures prices have plunged to their lowest level.
After a historic peak in late 2023 — driven by drought, citrus diseases, and poor harvests in Florida and Brazil — the market is now rapidly correcting downward.
During the COVID‑19 pandemic, demand also pushed prices up, but the current drop reflects a recovery in supply and easing of shortages.
Samurai Bonds Are Back in Demand
U.S. companies are increasingly issuing yen-denominated Samurai bonds to tap into Japan’s cheaper capital.
Why?
– High U.S. rates make domestic borrowing expensive
– Tight JPY-USD cross-currency basis lowers the cost of converting yen to dollars
– Samurai bonds let firms borrow more cheaply and diversify investors
With favorable funding conditions in Japan, expect more U.S. corporates to follow this route.
UK Bond Yields Surge as Fiscal Concerns Hammer the Pound
The British pound dropped over 1 cent in an hour as markets react to a sharp selloff in UK bonds.
• 30-year gilt yields spiked +21 bps to 5.44%
• 10-year yields rose +20 bps, 2-year +9.6 bps
Rumors swirl around Chancellor Rachel Reeves after her emotional U-turn on welfare cuts. Investors are rattled by signs the UK government may be pulling back from fiscal discipline.
Americans Are Quitting Jobs at the Slowest Pace Since 2020
The number of people voluntarily leaving their jobs dropped by 151,000 in May, hitting the lowest level since November 2020.
Job leavers now make up just 9.8% of total employment, down 4 percentage points over the last 6 months — a rare decline outside of recessions.
President Trump claims the US deficit has been reduced by half in anticipation of his significant legislative proposal.
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$TSLA delivery numbers are out.
• 384K v. 389K estimate
Stock is up 5% pre-market
Markets move on new info — not noise.
– Known news = priced in = no reaction
– Real moves happen when expectations shift
June example:
– Rangebound until 2 catalysts:
1. Israel’s first strike → risk priced in
2. Fed’s Bowman turned dovish → USD dropped
Key takeaway:
Wait for true catalysts. Focus on what changes the outlook, not what’s already known.
Nvidia CEO sells another $35M in shares
Insider selling continues: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just offloaded $35.2 million worth of $NVDA stock.
Warren Buffett’s take: How to spot a great, good, and gruesome business
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The S&P 500 has been positive in July every year for the last decade
Average return of +3.35%
Second best month of the year.
Gold demand shifts East as Western appetite fades
Retail gold demand is falling in North America and Western Europe — now down three years in a row.
Meanwhile, Asia, South America, and Africa are steadily buying more. In Q1 2025, this created the widest East-West gold demand gap on record, driven by a U.S. sell-off.
– Asia-Pacific demand rose +3%
– China: +12%
– South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia: +30%
– U.S. Mint gold coin sales: –70% YoY in May
Gold flows are clearly heading East.