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📈We track everything that moves the markets: fast news, clear context, real narratives. 📩 Reach out: @strategy

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Trump nominated for Nobel Peace Prize

Donald Trump has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for brokering the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel.

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JUST IN: Fed's Powell suggests earlier rate cuts if inflation is weaker than anticipated.

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JUST IN: Fed's Hammack indicates more progress needed for 2% inflation target, notes policy is near neutral, expects Fed to hold steady for now, and sees no urgent need to cut interest rates.

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Trump about Israel and Iran

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Germany approves €500B debt plan through 2029

Chancellor Merz’s cabinet greenlit a 2025 budget with €82B in new debt this year, rising to €126B by 2029 — totaling €500B.

The boost targets NATO’s 3.5% GDP defense goal, amid pressure from Trump to reach 5%.

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JUST IN: Israeli Defense Minister: Strikes ordered on central Tehran

The Defense Minister said he instructed the army to launch powerful strikes on targets in central Tehran in response to Iran’s ceasefire violation.

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JUST IN: Israeli military reports identifying missiles fired from Iran towards Israel.

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Berkshire now pays 5% of all U.S. corporate tax

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway paid a record $26.8B in corporate taxes — accounting for 5% of the entire U.S. corporate tax bill.

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JUST IN: Trump opposes further military involvement in the Middle East, reports CNN.

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WhatsApp has been banned on U.S. House of Representatives devices.

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JUST IN: U.S. aircraft departs from Saudi Arabia air base

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JUST IN: UAE has closed its airspace, reports Fox News.

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JUST IN: Iran is reportedly about to launch missiles at US bases, as Axios reports. Iran has allegedly fired six missiles at US bases in Qatar, with explosions being heard in Doha.

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Keep watching the market:

Prediction markets now see a massive 92% chance of Iran meeting with the US before July.

This is up sharply from the 47% chance seen just two days ago.

The market continues to price-in a short-lived conflict.

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JUST IN: Tesla stock, $TSLA, jumps over +10% following the market's response to the Robotaxi launch.

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JUST IN: Fed's Powell states that rate cuts are on hold due to anticipated significant inflation growth this year.

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U.S. Stocks on track for an annual inflow of $360 Billion, the 3rd largest in history

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JUST IN: Fed's Powell states the economy remains strong despite uncertainty. Tariffs could raise prices and impact the economy. US short-term interest rate futures dip as traders anticipate lower chances of early Fed rate cuts.

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JUST IN: Trump says Israel and Iran both violated the ceasefire

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JUST IN: Iran denies launching rockets after ceasefire

Tehran claims it did not fire any rockets at Israel following the ceasefire agreement, rejecting reports of renewed attacks.

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JUST IN: Iran's security body to announce 'end of war' with Israel soon, while Israeli Defense Minister orders strong military response to Iran's ceasefire breach with strikes in Tehran.

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July rate cut odds rise to 22.7%

Markets are slowly pricing in higher chances of a Fed cut in July, with odds now at 22.7%.

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Trump declares a "complete and total ceasefire" between Israel and Iran, naming it "The 12 Day War" now "considered ended."

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JUST IN: BRENT AND US CRUDE FUTURES DROP OVER $5 AMID VOLATILE TRADING.

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JUST IN: Qatar reports intercepting a missile barrage targeting Al Udeid Air Base. There were no incidents or casualties from the attack.

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JUST IN: Iran has initiated strikes on Qatar and Iraq.

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Oil drops over 3% after Iran strikes U.S. bases

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JUST IN: The Trump administration is reportedly getting ready for a potential Iranian attack on US bases in the Gulf, according to Axios.

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JUST IN: An Iranian political source suggests an imminent attack on US military sites is likely – Iranian media.

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Fed’s Bowman: Rate cut may be on the table

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman says it’s an appropriate time to consider adjusting interest rates.

A cut is possible if inflation keeps easing or the labor market weakens.

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