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📈We track everything that moves the markets: fast news, clear context, real narratives. 📩 Reach out: @strategy

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Trump about Israel and Iran

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Germany approves €500B debt plan through 2029

Chancellor Merz’s cabinet greenlit a 2025 budget with €82B in new debt this year, rising to €126B by 2029 — totaling €500B.

The boost targets NATO’s 3.5% GDP defense goal, amid pressure from Trump to reach 5%.

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JUST IN: Israeli Defense Minister: Strikes ordered on central Tehran

The Defense Minister said he instructed the army to launch powerful strikes on targets in central Tehran in response to Iran’s ceasefire violation.

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JUST IN: Israeli military reports identifying missiles fired from Iran towards Israel.

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Berkshire now pays 5% of all U.S. corporate tax

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway paid a record $26.8B in corporate taxes — accounting for 5% of the entire U.S. corporate tax bill.

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JUST IN: Trump opposes further military involvement in the Middle East, reports CNN.

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WhatsApp has been banned on U.S. House of Representatives devices.

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JUST IN: U.S. aircraft departs from Saudi Arabia air base

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JUST IN: UAE has closed its airspace, reports Fox News.

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JUST IN: Iran is reportedly about to launch missiles at US bases, as Axios reports. Iran has allegedly fired six missiles at US bases in Qatar, with explosions being heard in Doha.

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Keep watching the market:

Prediction markets now see a massive 92% chance of Iran meeting with the US before July.

This is up sharply from the 47% chance seen just two days ago.

The market continues to price-in a short-lived conflict.

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JUST IN: Tesla stock, $TSLA, jumps over +10% following the market's response to the Robotaxi launch.

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JUST IN: President Trump urges for lower oil prices and warns against aiding adversaries. He instructs the US Department of Energy to "Drill, baby, drill" in an effort to combat inflation.

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JUST IN: US officials warn of imminent high risk of Iranian retaliation against US forces, while efforts for diplomatic resolution continue.

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JUST IN: Oil prices saw a minimal increase after U.S. strikes in Iran, indicating markets doubt a Hormuz Strait blockade. Despite tensions, experts consider it unlikely as Iran relies on oil exports to China. Analysts find the muted price reaction surprising, while alternative routes in Saudi Arabia and UAE offer limited relief. High inventories and OPEC+ production suggest potential price spikes would be temporary.

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JUST IN: Trump says Israel and Iran both violated the ceasefire

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JUST IN: Iran denies launching rockets after ceasefire

Tehran claims it did not fire any rockets at Israel following the ceasefire agreement, rejecting reports of renewed attacks.

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JUST IN: Iran's security body to announce 'end of war' with Israel soon, while Israeli Defense Minister orders strong military response to Iran's ceasefire breach with strikes in Tehran.

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July rate cut odds rise to 22.7%

Markets are slowly pricing in higher chances of a Fed cut in July, with odds now at 22.7%.

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Trump declares a "complete and total ceasefire" between Israel and Iran, naming it "The 12 Day War" now "considered ended."

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JUST IN: BRENT AND US CRUDE FUTURES DROP OVER $5 AMID VOLATILE TRADING.

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JUST IN: Qatar reports intercepting a missile barrage targeting Al Udeid Air Base. There were no incidents or casualties from the attack.

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JUST IN: Iran has initiated strikes on Qatar and Iraq.

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Oil drops over 3% after Iran strikes U.S. bases

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JUST IN: The Trump administration is reportedly getting ready for a potential Iranian attack on US bases in the Gulf, according to Axios.

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JUST IN: An Iranian political source suggests an imminent attack on US military sites is likely – Iranian media.

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Fed’s Bowman: Rate cut may be on the table

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman says it’s an appropriate time to consider adjusting interest rates.

A cut is possible if inflation keeps easing or the labor market weakens.

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Key Earnings Calendar

Monday, June 23
• KB Home (KBH) — after close

Tuesday, June 24
• FedEx (FDX) — after close
• Carnival (CCL) — before open

Wednesday, June 25
• Micron (MU) — after close
• Paychex (PAYX), General Mills (GIS), Winnebago (WGO), Jefferies (JEF)

Thursday, June 26
• Nike (NKE), Walgreens (WBA), McCormick (MKC) — after close

Friday, June 27
• Final read on May’s PCE inflation and other data (income, spending, sentiment)

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JUST IN: White House Press Secretary Leavitt stated that Trump received intelligence indicating Iran was 'weeks' away from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

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Iranian official denies any Iranian signal to end hostilities.

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