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📈We track everything that moves the markets: fast news, clear context, real narratives. 📩 Reach out: @strategy

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JUST IN: Israeli military reports identifying missiles fired from Iran towards Israel.

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Berkshire now pays 5% of all U.S. corporate tax

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway paid a record $26.8B in corporate taxes — accounting for 5% of the entire U.S. corporate tax bill.

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JUST IN: Trump opposes further military involvement in the Middle East, reports CNN.

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WhatsApp has been banned on U.S. House of Representatives devices.

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JUST IN: U.S. aircraft departs from Saudi Arabia air base

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JUST IN: UAE has closed its airspace, reports Fox News.

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JUST IN: Iran is reportedly about to launch missiles at US bases, as Axios reports. Iran has allegedly fired six missiles at US bases in Qatar, with explosions being heard in Doha.

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Keep watching the market:

Prediction markets now see a massive 92% chance of Iran meeting with the US before July.

This is up sharply from the 47% chance seen just two days ago.

The market continues to price-in a short-lived conflict.

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JUST IN: Tesla stock, $TSLA, jumps over +10% following the market's response to the Robotaxi launch.

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JUST IN: President Trump urges for lower oil prices and warns against aiding adversaries. He instructs the US Department of Energy to "Drill, baby, drill" in an effort to combat inflation.

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JUST IN: US officials warn of imminent high risk of Iranian retaliation against US forces, while efforts for diplomatic resolution continue.

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JUST IN: Oil prices saw a minimal increase after U.S. strikes in Iran, indicating markets doubt a Hormuz Strait blockade. Despite tensions, experts consider it unlikely as Iran relies on oil exports to China. Analysts find the muted price reaction surprising, while alternative routes in Saudi Arabia and UAE offer limited relief. High inventories and OPEC+ production suggest potential price spikes would be temporary.

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Crude just dropped over 4% today.

Now down 15% from last week’s high.

Reports say Iran wants to de-escalate with the US and Israel.

The markets detect peace, and they’re pricing it in.

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A senior security official:

Iran is preparing for a very big blow after the first act of aggression by the Zionist regime — Iranian media.

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Another powerful Israeli strike on Tehran — this time during rush hour, right after the workday ended.

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July rate cut odds rise to 22.7%

Markets are slowly pricing in higher chances of a Fed cut in July, with odds now at 22.7%.

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Trump declares a "complete and total ceasefire" between Israel and Iran, naming it "The 12 Day War" now "considered ended."

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JUST IN: BRENT AND US CRUDE FUTURES DROP OVER $5 AMID VOLATILE TRADING.

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JUST IN: Qatar reports intercepting a missile barrage targeting Al Udeid Air Base. There were no incidents or casualties from the attack.

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JUST IN: Iran has initiated strikes on Qatar and Iraq.

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Oil drops over 3% after Iran strikes U.S. bases

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JUST IN: The Trump administration is reportedly getting ready for a potential Iranian attack on US bases in the Gulf, according to Axios.

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JUST IN: An Iranian political source suggests an imminent attack on US military sites is likely – Iranian media.

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Fed’s Bowman: Rate cut may be on the table

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman says it’s an appropriate time to consider adjusting interest rates.

A cut is possible if inflation keeps easing or the labor market weakens.

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Trade Watcher

Key Earnings Calendar

Monday, June 23
• KB Home (KBH) — after close

Tuesday, June 24
• FedEx (FDX) — after close
• Carnival (CCL) — before open

Wednesday, June 25
• Micron (MU) — after close
• Paychex (PAYX), General Mills (GIS), Winnebago (WGO), Jefferies (JEF)

Thursday, June 26
• Nike (NKE), Walgreens (WBA), McCormick (MKC) — after close

Friday, June 27
• Final read on May’s PCE inflation and other data (income, spending, sentiment)

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JUST IN: White House Press Secretary Leavitt stated that Trump received intelligence indicating Iran was 'weeks' away from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

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Iranian official denies any Iranian signal to end hostilities.

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Breaking: Iran asks Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman to ask President Trump to press Israel to agree to an immediate ceasefire, per Reuters.

In return, Iran will offer flexibility in nuclear negotiations with the US, per Reuters.

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Iran signals it wants to de-escalate hostilities with Israel: WSJ

Iran stated privately it will resume nuclear talks if the US stays out of the fight.

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Trade Watcher

Israel continues to strike Iran, with explosions reported in eastern Tehran.

Meanwhile, the IDF has issued a call for residents of the third district in the Iranian capital to evacuate.

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