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Telegram-канал trade - Trade Watcher

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📈 All the latest updates on the Stock Market: signals, news, and everything that might move the narrative — all in one place. 😉 We keep an eye on the price; you can just watch us do it. Buy Ads: @JamesCookTg (this is our only account).

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Trade Watcher

The current situation looks like the final shakeout before the rally.

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Trade Watcher

📊 The Finance Journal is now on Telegram!

Stay informed with the latest financial news, trends, and market insights from trusted sources.

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Social mentions for "altseason" have plummeted this week, despite altcoins holding up relatively well.

Has everyone finally given up on alt season?

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$BTC volatility has declined from previous cycles as the market matures over time.

While this means that returns have been smaller in percentage terms, it also means that the drawdowns aren't as big either.

Drawdowns have been capped at 20-30% this cycle vs. 40-50% last cycle.

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Ukraine has reached a framework agreement with the U.S. to jointly develop its rare earths, critical minerals, oil, and gas, contributing 50% of state-owned resource revenues to a Reconstruction Investment Fund managed by both countries. While the deal aims to boost Ukraine’s economy and attract investments, it does not include U.S. security guarantees, a key demand from Kyiv. The agreement aligns with Washington’s strategy to counter China’s dominance in rare earths, which are essential for high-tech, military, and energy industries.

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Raise your hand if this has happened to you?

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Donald Trump announced that 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada will resume on March 4, citing ongoing concerns over illicit drug flows. Additionally, China will face an extra 10% tariff, adding to existing trade restrictions. This contradicts earlier statements from White House officials suggesting a broader tariff review in April. Markets reacted negatively, with Dow futures turning red after the announcement.

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Rolls-Royce reported £2.46B in 2024 operating profit, surpassing expectations with a 57% YoY increase. The company reinstated a 6p dividend after five years and announced a £1B share buyback for 2025. Mid-term profit targets were raised to £3.6B–£3.9B, reflecting strong performance. Shares jumped 15%, hitting a 52-week high, as investors reacted to the upbeat outlook.

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All the liquidity is sitting above now.

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Andrew Tate and Tristan Tate have officially left Romania heading to the United States.

Last week, President Trump pressured Romanian authorities to lift their restrictions.

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At his first cabinet meeting, Trump reaffirmed ties with China, confirmed tariffs on the EU and Canada-Mexico from April 2, and stated Putin showed no intent to end the Ukraine war before reelection. He hopes for a diplomatic resolution and reassured that U.S. Social Security remains unchanged.

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Contractors owed tens of millions by USAID say they may have to shut down or face legal action globally, with overseas employees receiving threats over unpaid debts. A court ordered the U.S. government to pay by Wednesday, but the decision was appealed. President Trump and Elon Musk aim to dismantle USAID, putting most of its 10,000 employees on leave and canceling contracts. Meanwhile, affected workers have been instructed to retrieve their belongings under supervision, signaling deepening uncertainty over the agency's future.

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On-chain data suggests that the $LIBRA and $MELANIA insider team may be laundering funds. They spent 19,846 SOL ($2.76M) to buy POPE, a memecoin with a market cap under $150K, only to sell it for 175 SOL ($24K)—incurring a $2.73M loss. This significant loss effectively funneled funds to other wallets, raising suspicions of structured offloading under a legal guise.

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Approximately $5 billion in BTC options will expire on Deribit this Friday, with the max pain level at $98,000. Of this, $3.9 billion (78%) will expire out-of-the-money (OTM), meaning they will be worthless. Nearly all call options are OTM, as Bitcoin’s recent price drop has left bullish traders with significant unrealized losses.

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Whale Detected: Major BTC to LTC Swaps

A whale has been steadily accumulating $LTC via THORChain since January, swapping 191 BTC (~$18M) for 173k LTC.

Recent filings from CoinShares, Canary Capital, and Grayscale signal growing institutional interest, with analysts expecting a high probability of approval.

Meanwhile, LTC has broken out of a long accumulation phase, significantly outperforming ETH. The chart shows a strong bounce from demand with absorption of downward movement and weak highs above - trading as if ETF approval is imminent.

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The Trump Organization has filed a trademark for "TRUMP", signaling plans to launch a metaverse and NFT trading platform.

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OpenAI has introduced GPT-4.5, an upgraded AI model with better emotional intelligence, improved pattern recognition, and reduced hallucinations. CEO Sam Altman described it as the first AI that feels like "talking to a human." The model is resource-intensive, with a $200 monthly subscription fee, and is estimated to have 4-5 trillion parameters. Wider availability is expected next week as OpenAI scales up computing power.

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A trader who once lost $24.5M on $TRUMP token just bought another 297,874 $TRUMP for $4M $USDC.

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CBOE Volatility Index $VIX hits highest closing level since December

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McDonald's is selling $1 Egg McMuffins for one day on Sunday via its app, celebrating the sandwich’s 50th anniversary. The promotion comes as egg prices hit record highs, with a dozen eggs averaging $4.95 in January. While competitors like Waffle House have added surcharges, McDonald's is leveraging the deal to boost customer loyalty and digital engagement, reinforcing its value-driven brand image.

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Since August 2024, Binance had been consistently offloading SOL, but data suggests they began repurchasing yesterday at lower prices. The exchange capitalized on retail panic selling, likely acquiring more SOL than they initially held amid FUD-driven market fear.

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Robert Kiyosaki sees Bitcoin's decline as a buying opportunity, blaming the monetary system and U.S. debt crisis rather than BTC itself. He reiterates his long-standing stance that Bitcoin, gold, and silver are real assets, while fiat money is losing value. His pro-crypto narrative reinforces confidence in BTC as a hedge against economic instability.

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BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin’s short-term price trajectory hinges on U.S. politics. He suggests that if President Trump fails to pass a budget increasing spending and the debt ceiling, BTC could retrace to $70,000–$75,000—testing Trump’s influence over the Republican Party. Hayes also warns that hedge funds holding BlackRock’s IBIT ETF might liquidate positions if BTC declines further, accelerating a sell-off. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $84,498, down 4% in 24 hours.

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The 10-year Treasury yield has dipped below the 3-month yield, triggering an inverted yield curve, a historically reliable recession signal. While past inversions haven’t always led to downturns, investors worry that Trump’s trade policies and inflation concerns could slow economic growth. Markets are now pricing in Fed rate cuts, though strong labor data suggests a recession isn’t certain yet.

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A $1.48B Bybit hack was caused by a compromised Safe Wallet via AWS vulnerability, investigators confirm. Malicious code was injected on Feb 19, triggering the attack on Feb 21. Safe has rebuilt its infrastructure, and Bybit has restored 1:1 reserves, verified by Hacken’s audit.

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Minutes after President Trump announced 25% tariffs on the EU, the S&P 500 erased $500+ BILLION of market cap.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin just broke below $84,000 for the first time since November 11th.

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$BTC holders sold for a total of $1.73 billion in realized losses yesterday, which is the most since August 2024.

Just another metric that adds to the capitulation signals on this move lower for $BTC.

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Fitch Ratings has downgraded Nissan’s credit rating to BB+ (junk status) from BBB-, citing persistently low profitability and a delayed recovery. This follows Moody’s recent downgrade to Ba1 and S&P’s negative outlook on the automaker. The continued credit rating cuts highlight concerns over Nissan’s financial performance and recovery trajectory.

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President Donald Trump has launched a national security investigation into tariffs on copper imports, aiming to revive U.S. production and counter China’s market dominance. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick will lead the probe, focusing on imports from Chile, Canada, and Mexico. With copper vital for EVs, defense, and semiconductors, the administration sees long-term trade protections as key to U.S. industrial growth.

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Four years ago, CZ predicted a Bitcoin drop from $101,000 to $85,000, and now it has happened. His old tweet resurfaced as users noticed the accuracy of his statement.

Now, he has retweeted it, suggesting that in the future, Bitcoin will correct from $1,001,000 to $985,000.

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