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#BITCOIN DAILY TF UPDATE :
#BITCOIN on Daily TF, sustained itself from the resistance area, and kept on dropping after a proper retest. Candle closing are strong and reached 50% of the consolidation range. Price can easily drop more due to fundamental news activity.
Excluding the 6-12 month cohort from LTH realized profit better reveals seasoned investor impact by removing Q1 2025 top buyers with limited gains and focusing on >12-month holders with deeper profit margins.
When isolating >12-month holder profits, the current wave's significance becomes clearer. This conviction-driven cohort is now taking profits at scale—behavior typically signaling bull trend maturity or exhaustion. This aligns with CBD Heatmap findings showing older investors driving recent selling pressure, reinforcing that LTHs are increasingly active in this top formation phase.
#BTC gave a shallow break and moving sideways, in a very tight area, also price is in-between of the large range and need to see some breakout. We already mentioned the war situation might lead to some worse conditions in the market.
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While current LTH profit realization at ~$1B/day seems modest versus December 2024's $1.8B peak, a deeper breakdown reveals familiar patterns. The 6-12 month holder cohort typically contributes less to profit-taking as cycles mature, which is happening now. As the rally extends, older LTH segments increasingly dominate selling, suggesting we're entering the top formation phase of this cycle.
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#BTC broke the trendline support and still below the resistance now. Yesterday, we didn't have rate cuts and so nothing much happened. Now as per the technical, its in a range so waiting for a breakout is necessary and fundamental can drive the market, or war situation might lead to something.
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Since 2015-2018, long-term holders (LTHs) have increasingly dominated profit-taking during market tops, highlighting structural market maturity where seasoned investors lead capital rotation over fast-moving speculators.
At the recent peak, LTHs realized ~$1B per day (30-day MA) versus STHs at $0.32B per day—a 3X difference confirming this profit-taking wave is led by older, higher-conviction investors rather than short-term traders.
#BTC closed another daily candle with a rejection wick and gave a bearish engulfing too. In H4 TF, its just consolidating back and forth off the zone. Nothing much clear as of now, price just respected the trendline and we need to wait for the further price action to develop.
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To understand current profit realization significance, examining it cyclically reveals how market maturity shapes investor behavior. The 90-day SMA of net realized profit, normalized by market cap, shows profit-taking has grown less euphoric over time as Bitcoin matures.
Historical comparison shows declining intensity:
- 2015-2018: ~25 months, peaking above 0.4% of market cap
- 2020-2022: ~20 months, peaking around 0.15%
- Current cycle (Nov 2023): 18 months with two peaks near 0.1%
This trend suggests profit-taking remains significant but more tempered, possibly indicating a shift from boom-bust euphoria to structured capital rotation in a maturing asset class.
#BTC gave a flip of the resistance in H4 TF but in Daily TF its a rejection. Overall, in HTF price moving sideways alot and forming small pattern which ended up being invalidated. War tensions also going on, so need to wait for the further price action to develop.
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As Bitcoin retreats from $111.8k, selling pressure comes mainly from intra-cycle seasoned holders realizing substantial gains. The 7-day SMA of daily profit realization (excluding intra-entity flows) peaked at $1.47B per day last week, highlighting intense capital rotation.
This marks the fifth wave this cycle where daily profit-taking exceeded $1B—events that often coincide with local tops or slowdowns if incoming demand can't absorb the selling scale. This tests the market's resilience against elevated selling pressure.
#US30 UPDATE :
#US30 gave a tap into the 43,000 area and rejected precisely with a wick. Currently, its dropping and might continue lower till 41,150 and eventually 40,800 as support. You can consider taking shorts on a retest.
Here's the Analysis of #AVA :
#AVA is been in a consolidation market and moving between the key support zone of $0.45 - $0.47 and key resistance $0.75 - $0.78. Price is been in a tradable range, song short-term longs can be taken from the support and short-sells only after the H4 candle close.
#DXY UPDATE :
#DXY gave a perfect drop as per the analysis towards the major support. Index exactly reacted from the support and now holding above it. Its new range now, we can move towards the major resistance and can print a new lower low again.
Here's the Analysis of #KNC :
#KNC stuck up inside the sideways market between the major support zone and major resistance zone of $0.29 - $0.30 and $0.39 - $0.40 respectively. Price forming head and shoulder and inverse head and shoulder inside it. Bearish break can happen and trade can be taken along the breakout.
#MTL gave a shallow closing of the bear flag and dropped around 7.3% in favor. Still price have some room to move all the way down, targeting towards the major support zone.
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Here's the Analysis of #ALT :
#ALT is been in a large consolidation range and rejected hard from the resistance area of $0.044 - $0.045. Now its heading towards the support at $0.022 - 0.024 and nothing much, you can take short selling in LTF targeting the support.
#TOTAL UPDATE :
#TOTAL gave a very strong breakout, and gave a sideways move, we saw the impact in the market, and now we need to see some sort of breakout to happen, then we can decide.
Here's the Analysis of #MAGIC :
#MAGIC is been going through the retracement phrase after the strong up move. Now its retracing the and nearly to the support zone of $0.123 - $0.133. Price is moving on a small channel pattern and a breakout will lead in strong buys indication, and you can take buys in retest.
#MTL is been dropped continues and its bit slower move now. Price moved around 11% in profits, and approaching towards the major support area of $0.60 - $0.63 will be the TP area and potential reversal setups.
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Here's the Analysis of #ETHFI :
#ETHFI is been moving within the channel pattern and reached the support zone of $0.83 - $0.91. Short-term bounce can be expected from here but looking at the market sentiment, altcoins can see dip, so take it accordingly.
#BTC.D UPDATE :
#BTC.D give some new higher high internally, making the altcoin suffer in pain. Index might trying to reach out the old high 65.40% and a fall can come. #BTC also not so clear due to war tensions.
Here's the Analysis of #EDU :
#EDU kept on dropping lower low and might reach the listing price. Recently, price broke the bear flag pattern, which is a bearish continuation pattern and might continue drop lower. Longs are not favorable here, shorts can be taken into account.
#GOLD UPDATE :
#GOLD moved and printed a new higher high, before tapping the support. Now, the support zone at $3380 standing strong and might push further higher high.
Here's the Analysis of #FORTH :
#FORTH is been on a very major support zone of $$2.17 - $2.44 and forming a triangle pattern over it. This seems be a good area of interest for buys and sells, but need to wait for the price to breakout either side, to take the calls. Use H4 close or Daily close as strong confirmation.
Another 10,100 #Bitcoin bought by Strategy
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#BTC closed the weekly candle indecisive, with wicks a huge wick on body sides, no to minor body. Its a very indecisive and currently, moving higher trying to flip the resistance, we need to see a Daily candle closing healthy either side.
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Here's a condensed version:
With substantial Bitcoin supply turnover during two ATH pushes over six months, tracking recent investor behavior becomes crucial. The Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis captures the average acquisition price for coins held under 155 days, currently at $97.1k.
Standard deviation bands provide statistical context: the +1σ band at $114.8k signals overbought/breakout conditions, while the -1σ band at $83.2k marks elevated downside risk. These three levels ($114.8k, $97.1k, $83.2k) define short-term sentiment boundaries, with breaks above or below likely shaping the next market direction.
#BITCOIN WEEKLY TF UPDATE :
#BITCOIN on WEEKLY TF, had a weekly closing with a good rejection candle and this week also, price just moved up and retraced all the way down and now having a rejection candle stick. The another rejection candle means, buyer is bit stronger than seller and can over it soon. Expecting bullish bias for next week not strongly but it can.
With long-term holders selling and lacking strong upside catalysts above $111.8k, correction probability builds. The Spent Supply Distribution (SSD) Quantiles framework helps identify support levels by analyzing the cost basis of spent coins across 100 percentiles.
Key levels include the 0.95 quantile (top 5% of spent supply), 0.85 quantile (top 15%), and 0.75 quantile (top 25%). Historically, absolute euphoria occurs above the 0.95 quantile, sideways bull phases between 0.85-0.95, and bearish periods below 0.75.
Currently, the 0.95 quantile at ~$103.7k provides first support. If selling persists, the 0.85 quantile at $95.6k offers structural support, or if breached, confirms broader risk reset.
#BITCOIN DAILY TF UPDATE :
#BITCOIN on Daily TF, gave a good move up throughout the week and lead a drop too after hitting the key supply zone. Price is back inside the range and nothing can be done until is moved any side of the zone, only scalping possible as of now.