News & Analysis covering the Middle East Independent, but not unbiased, striving for a multipolar world. Mainly focused on Iran, Palestine, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. Introduction: https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/4
You gotta be legally blind if you didn't see this coming.
Читать полностью…— 🇮🇷 NEW: The appearance of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Khamenei, at the Ashura ceremony last night was planned in perfect secrecy and was completely unannounced, to the extent that even the high-ranking officials at the gathering stood up in surprise at the Leader's appearance
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— 🇵🇸 Dear subscribers, our newest mission for Gaza is complete!
We distributed large plates of rice to more than 120 families in Northern Gaza, providing them with good and nutritious meals.
To continue this campaign, make sure to donate through the links down below, your donations will go directly to Gaza.
You can also donate via buying Telegram star reactions on this post.
Donation link: https://chuffed.org/project/113154-help-feed-displaced-people-in-gaza
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— 🇵🇸/🇮🇱 NEW: Rocket sirens in Sderot, rockets from Gaza
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—❗️🇮🇷/🇺🇸 BREAKING: Satellite imagery shows that Iran has opened one of the tunnels at the underground complex below the Esfahan uranium conversion facility, believed to be located several dozens of meters deeper than Fordow, at a depth of approximately ~100 meters, described as 'impenetrable' by U.S. analysts
The satellite imagery seems to confirm that Iran is either relocating part of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium or installing enrichment centrifuges.
U.S. sources confirmed after the strike on Fordow that another underground facility was located underneath the conversion facility at Esfahan, too deep to be targeted even by the GBU-57 'MOP' bunker busters.
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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇱/🇮🇷 NEW: Newsweek reports that 15% to 20% of the global THAAD missile interceptor stockpile was depleted to defend against Iranian attacks in the 12-day war between Iran and Israel, with costs exceeding $800 million
The Pentagon press office told Newsweek, 'We have nothing to provide.'
Approximately 100 U.S. troops have been deployed in Israel with two THAAD batteries since 2024 to intercept Iranian and Yemeni missiles.
To defend against just one of the 22 waves of Operation True Promise 3, the U.S. military used 39 THAAD interceptors, while Israelis used more than 40 'Arrow' missiles.
A 2021 U.S. Department of Defense press briefing revealed that only 41 THAAD interceptors were ordered for that year, bringing the global total to 625 by the end of 2021. It is unclear how many exist in total currently.
*The $800 million cost does not include the expenses for SM-3, SM-6, and other missiles used by the U.S. military in their interception attempts during the 12-day war.
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—❗️🇮🇷 🇮🇷 Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC, Major General Mohammad Pakpour: 'Iran's finger still remains on the trigger, we will not hesitate to respond forcefully to any act of aggression, just as has been done over the past 12 days'
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Oman says it holds Israel and the U.S. solely responsible for the escalation.
Читать полностью…—❗️🇷🇺/🇮🇷 Dmitry Medvedev: 'A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads'
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—❗️🇮🇱/🇮🇷 NEW: One drone struck a warehouse in Bandar Abbas, all other projectiles were destroyed by air defenses
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—❗️🇺🇸/🇾🇪/🇮🇷 BREAKING: The spokesman of Yemen's Ansarallah, Yahya Saree, confirms that Yemen will target all American navy and commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Bab Al-Mandab if the U.S. goes to war with Iran
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—❗️🇮🇱/🇮🇷 For some reason, even the Iron Dome was activated in this latest barrage.
The Iron Dome cannot intercept ballistic missiles.
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— ❗️🇮🇷/🇪🇺 NEW: Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, arrives in Vienna to meet with the E3 (Germany, France and the UK)
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— 🇵🇸 Dear subscribers, our newest mission for Gaza is complete!
We distributed lentils, pasta, salt, molokhia, and white beans, to 36 displaced families and children in the Gaza Strip.
To continue this campaign, make sure to donate through the links down below, your donations will go directly to Gaza.
You can also donate via buying Telegram star reactions on this post.
Gaza campaign: https://chuffed.org/project/113154-help-feed-displaced-people-in-gaza
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—❗️🇮🇱/🇵🇸 BREAKING: An Israeli soldier has gone missing, the ambush is still ongoing — there are fears of a kidnapping
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— 🇮🇱/🇮🇷 NEW: During the 12-day war with Iran, Israel released various footages claiming to show the IDF 'destroying' a total of 45 Iranian TEL launchers, although they state that many more launchers have been destroyed without visual evidence
For now, we will focus simply on the claims for which Israel provided visual evidence, which amounts to a total of 45 strikes on TEL launchers, based on the videos shared by the IDF.
Out of these 45 different videos, 12 were actually reused footage with different angles or a colour filter, 9 were decoys or empty launchers, 4 were lightly damaged, and 20 were actually destroyed.
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Owner's @ is now in bio, so if you ever want to text him for whatever reason, you can.
Читать полностью…— 🇺🇸/🇮🇱 President Trump: 'Israel is the greatest nation, possibly, of all time, with notable exception of maybe the United States, depending on how you look at it'
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— 🇬🇧/🇮🇱/🇵🇸 WATCH: The British punk duo 'Bob Vylan,' performing at the Glastonbury Festival, led chants of 'Death to the IDF' and 'Free Palestine'
The Irish group Kneecap, known for their vocal support of Palestine, also performed at the festival.
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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 NEW: Trump goes on a long rant, says Ayatollah Khamenei is lying about Iran's victory, and that he prevented Israel from assassinating him, and that he knew 'exactly' where Khamenei was hiding
Trump also says he was working on sanctions relief for Iran, but that he stopped this effort, stating that Iran is always so 'angry, hostile and unhappy' and that he was very offended by Khamenei's statement of 'anger, hatred and disgust'
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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 NEW: Trump administration considering aiding Iran with up to $30 billion for a 'civilian nuclear program,' easing sanctions, and freeing freezed assets to bring Iran 'back to the negotiating table.' – CNN
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— 🇮🇷/🇦🇫 Governor of Tehran: 'We are quadrupling the deportation of Afghans'
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—❗️🇮🇱/🇮🇷 NEW: Dozens of Israelis injured in Iran's latest barrage, several in critical condition
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🇮🇱📞🇺🇸❌🇮🇷 The Israel Broadcasting Authority, citing an Israeli source:
The outcome of the military operation against Iran depends on Trump's decision.
The war will continue for a long time if Trump does not enter and Iran responds with its entire military arsenal.
— Hebrew media are circulating 5 days old pictures about destroyed TEL launchers in Iran
Besides the fact they're old, they're almost certainly decoys too. This is getting pathetic.
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George, I like you and respect you a lot. But do not talk about matters you do not understand. Nuclear tests don't take place at 13km depth.
Читать полностью…— 🇮🇷/🇮🇱 How's the situation of Iran's ballistic missile program?
Israel claims it has now destroyed two thirds of Iran's TEL launchers capable of launching ballistic missiles towards Israel. They say this is the reason Iran has been firing less missiles on a daily basis compared to at the start.
However, in reality this likely isn't the case. We have actually seen less than 10 TEL launchers visuably confirmed to be destroyed. But then why is Iran seemingly 'unable' to launch large misile salvos at once?
Iran has a vast network of underground missile bases spread all throughout the country, with the main ones being located in Western Iran, near Tabriz, Khorammabad, and Kermanshah. These sites are located deep underground, and are practically invulnerable to conventional Israeli strikes.
However, in the opening strike on Friday, Israel managed to target some of these bases and collapse their tunnel entrances. It will take Iran days to remove the rubble and reopen the entrances, and even then, they will be vulnerable to repeated attacks due to Israeli air superiority in the West.
The majority of missiles being launched at Israel currently are originating from Central and Eastern Iran, places like Shiraz, Shahrud, or even Mashhad. This is because Israeli air superiority is much less consolidated in these areas.
However, even with the worst case scenario of only 100-200 TELs left, Iran should be able to carry out a large coordinated missile strike. So why don't they?
Carrying out a large-scale coordinated missile strike requires planning and staging. In the staging phase, launchers are taken out of their bases and prepared for launch. In areas where Israel has sufficient air superiority, they can quickly detect these launchers and preemptively strike them, potentially risking high losses.
This is why Iran is currently only using 1-2 missile bases at a time. They are carrying out 'hit-and-run' tactics: Take out 20-30 launchers, fire, and immediately withdraw back into the tunnels to avoid any losses.
When Iran feels more confident about its ability to launch large and coordinated attacks, they will do so. Because they have not run out of missiles and launchers, and won't anytime soon. But the situation at Iran's Western missile bases must first be addressed in order to proceed with this.
Over all, the vast majority of Iran's missile bases are fully intact, with the notable exception of possibly Tabriz, which we saw footage of large secondary explosions, implying that the underground structure was hit. For most of Iran's 'damaged' missile bases, it's simply a matter of time — removing the rubble from the entrance tunnels and getting back to work.
When Israel's defense systems start becoming significantly degraded, which we will likely see in the coming days, Iran will probably launch larger attacks with its less sophisticated missiles with bigger warheads. Using those now would be a waste.
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