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DECEMBER RATE CUT ODDS DROPS TO 50% VS 65% BEFORE THE LEAVITT COMMENT: INFINITYHEDGE
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WORLD’S BIGGEST STABLECOIN COMPANY TETHER HIRES TOP HSBC GOLD TRADERS TO TAKE ON BULLION MARKET
Tether holds more than $12B in gold reserves, added gold holdings at an avg. rate of more than one ton/week in the year through september.
Tether earned $13B in profits last year from reserve assets, expects $15B in 2025.
FYI: Tether also held talks about investing in the entire gold supply chain, from mining and refining to trading and royalty companies according to FT.
ZCASH SURPASSES HYPE IN MARKET CAP: INFINITYHEDGE
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OCTOVER STATS: INFINITYHEDGE
*BTC CLOSED OCTOBER RED FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 7 YEARS
*MORE THAN $45B LIQUIDATED IN CRYPTO POSITIONS
*INVESTORS LOST $10B+ IN DAT'S
*~$100M LOST IN CRYPTO EXPLOITS
*CRYPTO MARKET LOST $1T, DOWN 25% FROM RECORD HIGH
*MSTR DOWN 32%, CRCL DOWN 30%, COIN DOWN 20%, GLXY DOWN 27%
*DAT'S: BMNR DOWN 40%, SBET DOWN 40%, FORD DOWN 60% (SOL)
*ETF FLOWS: BTC +$0.2B; ETH -$0.5B
*ALMOST ALL DAT'S MNAV DROPPED BELOW 1, MSTR MNAV DROPPED TO ALMOST 1
*BTC DOWN 19%, ETH DOWN 29%, SOL DOWN 33%, XRP DOWN 27%, BNB DOWN 29%
*MOST OCT. U.S. LAYOFFS SINCE 2003
*LONGEST U.S. GOV SHUTDOWN
*S&P 500 +0.7%, GOLD +1.7%, DOLLAR INDEX +1.7%, NVDA +6%, GOOGL +16%, META -10%
DXY DOLLAR INDEX RISES TO 5-MONTH HIGH OF 100.36
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ALPHABET LOOKING TO RAISE $15 BILLION FROM US DOLLAR BOND SALE
ALPHABET LAUNCHES EIGHT-PART DOLLAR BOND SALE RANGING FROM 3 TO 50 YEARS, TARGETING 1.35% PREMIUM OVER TREASURIES FOR LONGEST MATURITY
ALPHABET ALSO SEEKING TO RAISE €6.25 BILLION IN EUROPE'S DEBT MARKET
AFTER META NOW ALPHABET RAISING BILLIONS THROUGH BOND SALES TO FUND AI EXPANSION
ALPHABET'S US DOLLAR BOND SALE DRAWS ABOUT $90B DEMAND
ALPHABET BOOSTED THE SIZE OF ITS US DOLLAR CORPORATE BOND SALE TO $17.5 BILLION
THE OFFERING MARKS THE BIGGEST EVER BOND SALE SOLD BY ALPHABET
ZCASH SURPASSES MONERO IN MARKET CAP
ZCASH HITS EIGHT-YEAR HIGH
META'S BIGGEST BOND SALE DRAWS RECORD $125 BILLION OF DEMAND
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JPMORGAN TOKENIZES PRIVATE EQUITY FUND ON BANK'S OWN BLOCKCHAIN: WSJ
The move comes ahead of JPMorgan's broader rollout next year of its fund tokenization platform, Kinexys Fund Flow.
JPMorgan's Kinexys Fund Flow platform collects data from fund managers, distributors and administrators, creates smart contracts representing fund ownership, and facilitates the near-instant exchanging of cash and assets on the blockchain.
JPMorgan expects to tokenize additional alternative investment strategies, including private credit, real estate, and hedge funds, in the future. The bank is also exploring the possibility of allowing clients to use fund tokens as collateral for borrowing or constructing a portfolio of tokenized assets.
TRUMP: WILL REDUCE CHINA FENTANYL TARIFF TO 10%
TRUMP: TARIFFS ON CHINA WILL BE 47% DOWN FROM 57%
CHINA TO BUY SOYBEANS IMMEDIATELY
ALL THE RARE EARTH ISSUE HAS BEEN SETTLED
IT'S A ONE-YEAR AGREEMENT THAT WILL BE EXTENDED
GOING TO CHINA IN APRIL
TRUMP: SOUTH KOREA HAS AGREED TO PAY 350 BILLION DOLLARS FOR A LOWERING OF THE TARIFFS CHARGED AGAINST THEM BY THE U.S.
TRUMP: I HAVE GIVEN SOUTH KOREA APPROVAL TO BUILD A NUCLEAR POWERED SUBMARINE
TRUMP: MEETING WITH PRESIDENT XI OF CHINA. IT WILL TAKE PLACE IN A FEW HOURS! (11AM LOCAL/10PM ET)
TRUMP: DUE TO OTHER NATIONS TESTING PROGRAMS, I HAVE DIRECTED DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE TO BEGIN TESTING OUR NUCLEAR WEAPONS ON EQUAL BASIS
POWELL PRESS CONFERENCE SUMMARY: <@INFINITYHEDGE>
Tldr: A rate cut in December is not guaranteed...Powell said strongly differing views about how to proceed in December. A December cut is not to be seen as a forgone conclusion. In fact, far from it. if there's no government data to reconcile the picture, A very high level of uncertainty, that could be an argument in favor of caution about moving....Some officials are willing to pause rate cuts and see whether the risks in the labor market are real... I hope by december meeting we're getting a better flow of data.
POWELL: LABOR MARKET APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY COOLING; IF DATA SHOW BETTER JOB MARKET, WOULD AFFECT DECISIONS; WE DO NOT SEE JOB MARKET WEAKNESS ACCELERATING; NOT SEEING IMPACT OF AI IN JOBLESS CLAIMS DATA YET
POWELL: IN NEAR TERM, INFLATION RISKS ARE TILTED TO UPSIDE; SEPTEMBER CPI WAS A LITTLE SOFTER THAN EXPECTED
POWELL: WANT TO MOVE TOWARD SHORTER-DURATION BALANCE SHEET; RESERVE DECLINE WILL HAPPEN, BUT NOT FOR LONG TIME; FED WILL BE ADDING RESERVES AGAIN AT A CERTAIN POINT
POWELL: AI IS DIFFERENT FROM DOT-COM ERA; THERE WAS A CLEAR BUBBLE BACK THEN, COMPANIES NOW HAVE EARNINGS; CONSUMER SPENDING IS BIGGER THAN AI INVESTMENT
POWELL: DON'T SEE A BROADER CREDIT ISSUE AT THIS POINT; DON'T SEE SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION ANYWHERE IN ECONOMY
*Powell says the lack of data amid the government shutdown is a “temporary state of affairs,” but he acknowledges there’s a possibility that it would make sense to be more cautious on December’s policy decision if the data vacuum continues.
BE: The rate cut aims to insure against further downside employment risks — even though policymakers lacked the usual amount of data to assess the economy. With the government shutdown likely to extend well into November, FOMC members probably won’t have October inflation and unemployment data when they next meet on rates Dec. 9-10. We think the Fed will remain in risk-management mode, cutting by another 25 bps then.”
Powell: If we do wind up resuming rate cuts - at some point we will, but some point - I think we’re trying to get to the end of this cycle with the labor market in a good place and with inflation on its way to 2% or at 2%.
FED SAYS IT WILL STOP SHRINKING BALANCE SHEET ON DEC. 1
*The Fed Ending QT as expected
*Fed says it will end the reduction of its securities holdings beginning on Dec. 1, after slowing the pace of runoff earlier this year, and will roll maturing agency debt into Treasury bills.
*Fed President Jeff Schmid also dissented in favor of no cut
BI: The “hawkish” dissent was a bit of a surprise, which may change our opinion about the pace of cuts going forward, but there’s still little in the data to make us shift our opinion about the shape of the yield curve. There’s little in the statement or with the end of QT that’s likely to change the shape of the yield curve.
Cursor 2.0
Cursor launched their first coding model, 'Composer' is a frontier model that is 4x faster than similarly intelligent models.
https://cursor.com/blog/2-0
NVIDIA BECOMES FIRST COMPANY TO HIT $5 TRILLION MARKET VALUE
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WHITE HOUSE: OCTOBER CPI AND JOBS DATA LIKELY NEVER TO BE RELEASED
“The Democrats may have permanently damaged the federal statistical system with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released,” Leavitt told reporters at a news briefing.
The Week Ahead: infinityhedge
Mon:
*Longest U.S. Gov shutdown enters its 41th day
*Saylor expected announce another BTC purchase
*CBOE to launch continuous futures contracts for BTC & ETH
*Coinbase to launch some Launchpad or something
Wed:
*Fed’s Barr, Williams, Waller, Paulson speaks
*Circle earnings
Thu: Fed’s Hammack speaks
TBA/Whole Week:
*All eyes will also be on whether U.S. lawmakers can agree to end shutdown.
*US Supreme Court hears arguments on Trump’s tariffs (IEEPA) continues *U.S. Gov data expected to be delayed due to the shutdown.
BE: Even if the gov were to reopen, it’s unlikely BLS would be able to collect & process data for both the Oct. and Nov. CPI reports ahead of the Dec FOMC meeting.
ICYMI:
⊷ Borrowing to fund Al datacenter exploded in Sept & Oct; BofA data shows $75B of U.S. investment grade debt issued by AI-focused Big Tech hit the market in Sept. & Oct. alone, more than double the sector’s average annual issuance of $32B btw 2015-2024. Plus A surge in Oracle credit default swaps shows investors are worried about the U.S. tech giant’s debt levels. Microsoft's Longest Selloff Since 2011; Meta Tumbles Most Since 2022 Metaverse Selloff. Also OpenAI Asks US to Expand Chips Tax Credit to AI Data Centers: infinityhedge
⊷ CFTC’s Pham Moves to Launch Spot Crypto Trading Without Congress as soon as next month. Pham has held talks with CFTC-regulated DCMs exchanges like CME, Cboe Futures, ICE Futures, Coinbase Derivatives, Kalshi and Polymarket US, about launching spot crypto trading products involving margin, leverage, and financing.
⊷ U.S. Senate on Sunday moved forward on a measure aimed at reopening gov. Senate adjourned until Monday & has not yet scheduled a vote for final passage. House also needs to approve the measure, House passage is not guaranteed. It’s not yet clear how quickly the shutdown can end. Senate will need the consent of all members to end the shutdown quickly. Any one senator can force days of procedural delays. Prediction Markets expecting shutdown will end btw 12-15th Nov with 80% odds.
⊷ The combined amount of crypto loans reached $73.6B in the 3Q, surpassing the previous record of $69.4B set in the 4Q of 2021.
⊷ China’s central bank purchased gold for its reserves for a 12th straight month.
https://infinityhedge.substack.com/p/the-7-days-9c0
GTA 6 DELAYED AGAIN TO 19 NOV, 2026: INFINITYHEDGE
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BITCOIN DROPS BELOW $100K FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE JUNE
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The Week Ahead: infinityhedge
Mon:
*Hong Kong financial summit from 3 to 5 Nov.; Goldman’s Solomon, Morgan Stanley’s Ted and BlackRock’s Larry & Citadel’s Griffin will speak
*U.S. Gov shutdown enters its 34th day (On Track to be longest in history)
*Saylor expected announce another BTC purchase
*U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
*Palantir Earnings
Tue:
*U.S. court will hear arguments for Sam Bankman-Fried’s appeal (a new trial or reversal of conviction) at 10am ET; If the panel of judges gets deeply involved with the hearing that may be a sign that it is considering whether to order a new trial OR if hearing is short & quick means court affirming the conviction
*Monad timeline/Tokenomics something expected ?
*AMD, Super Micro Earnings
Wed:
*U.S. Treasury quarterly refunding: Treasury (likely keeping guidance unchanged)
*U.S. October ADP employment report, ISM Services PMI
*US Supreme Court hears arguments on the legality of about 60% of Trump’s tariffs (IEEPA)
*Robinhood, arm, qualcomm earnings
Thu:
*Tesla shareholders will vote on Musk’s $1 Trillion pay package
*Samourai Wallet devs Sentencing 11am ET
Fri: China Gold Reserves this week
TBA/Whole Week: Worldwide Oct. services & PMIs, U.S. Gov data expected to be delayed due to the shutdown, All eyes will also be on whether U.S. lawmakers can agree to end the shutdown, & Investors will be looking for any evidence of weakness in the labor market or evidence that inflation is slowing to increase Dec. rate cut odds which has dropped to 50% from 99% after powell’s presser.
ICYMI:
⊷ Earnings Beats Almost Across the Board for Mag 7; S&P 500 Reporting Double-Digit Earnings Growth for 4th Straight Quarter, last time the S&P 500 reported 4 consecutive Q's of double-digit earnings growth was Q1 2021 through Q4 2021. Analysts believe S&P 500 will report double-digit earnings growth in 4 of the next 5 Q's (through Q4 2026)
⊷ There will not be "nuclear explosions," energy secretary says on Trump's call to test weapons
⊷ OpenAI May Target $1 Trillion Valuation in IPO; OpenAI is giving Microsoft a 27% ownership stake worth about $135B, It will also continue to receive 20% of OpenAI’s revenue; OpenAI Made a $12 Billion Loss Last Quarter.
⊷ On Oct. 28, three new crypto spot ETFs began trading in the U.S. markets, In the coming months, more ETFs are expected to target assets that meet the new generic listing standards, potential candidates could include DOGE, BCH, LINK, XLM, AVAX, SHIB, DOT and ADA.
⊷ Bank of Korea May Buy Gold from a medium- to long-term perspective, for the first time in more than a decade
⊷ Buffett’s Berkshire Cash Hits $382 Billion.
⊷ Balancer Hit by $110M Exploit (hacked for 3rd time now); Berachain validators purposefully halt the Berachain network as the core team performs an emergency hard fork to address Balancer V2 related exploits.
⊷ MSFT CEO says "the biggest issue we are now having is not a compute glut, but it's a power. And it's sort of the ability to get the builds done fast enough, close to power. So if you can't do that, you may actually have a bunch of chips sitting in inventory that I can't plug in. And in fact, that is my problem today, right? It's not a supply issue of chips. It's actually the fact that I don't have warm shells to plug into": Source in substack
https://infinityhedge.substack.com/p/the-7-days-2cf
COINBASE 3Q EARNINGS:
*REV. $1.87B, EST. $1.8B
*EPS $1.5, EST. $1.2
*SUBSCRIPTION, SERVICES REV. $747M, EST. $734M
*ADJUSTED EBITDA $801M, EST. $695.7M
*TXN REV. $1.04B VS 764M (Q2'25)
*TRADING VOL $295B VS 237B (Q2'25)
*COINBASE SEES 4Q SUBSCRIPTION & SERVICES REV. $710M TO $790M
AMAZON 3Q:
*NET SALES $180.17B, EST. $177.82B
*EPS $1.95, EST. $1.58
*AWS NET SALES $33B, EST. $32.39B
*AMAZON SEES 4Q NET SALES $206.0B TO $213.0B, EST. $208.45B
*AMAZON SEES 4Q OPER INCOME $21.0B TO $26.0B, EST. $23.78B
*AMAZON'S JASSY: AWS GROWING AT PACE WE HAVEN'T SEEN SINCE 2022
APPLE 4Q:
*EPS $1.85, EST. $1.77
*REV. $102.47B, EST. $102.19B
*SERVICES REV $28.75B, EST. $28.18B
*APPLE 4Q IPHONE REVENUE $49.03B, EST. $49.33B
*GREATER CHINA REV. $14.49B, EST. $16.43B
META LOOKS TO RAISE AT LEAST $25 BILLION FROM BOND SALE
Meta has begun marketing a dollar-bond sale in as many as six parts, ranging from 5 to 40 years in length.
Initial price talk of the 40-year note is for a premium of about 1.4 % points above Treasuries.
INFINITYHEDGE:
CHINA AND THE US TO EXTEND SOME TARIFF EXCLUSIONS
CHINA TO SUSPEND SHIPPING CURBS AGAINST US FOR A YEAR
US TO SUSPEND 50% ENTITY LIST EXPORT CONTROLS FOR A YEAR
CHINA WILL SUSPEND RARE EARTH EXPORT CONTROLS AND OTHER MEASURES ANNOUNCED ON OCT. 9 FOR ONE YEAR
CHINA: US WILL SUSPEND SECTION 301 INVESTIGATION; CHINA WILL PAUSE COUNTERMEASURES RELATED TO 301 INVESTIGATION FOR A YEAR
US EXTENDS SUSPENSION OF 24% RECIPROCAL TARIFF FOR ONE YEAR
XI-TRUMP MEETING ENDED, LASTS ABOUT 1 HOUR AND 40 MINUTES
TRUMP DEPARTS SOUTH KOREA AFTER MEETING WITH XI AS EXPECTED
GOOGLE, MICROSOFT, META EARNINGS:
ALPHABET 3Q:
*REV. $102.35B, EST. $99.85B
*EPS $2.87, EST. $2.26
*CLOUD REV. $15.16B, EST. $14.75B
*SEARCH & OTHER REV. $56.57B, EST. $54.99B
*GOOGLE CLOUD ENDING QUARTER WITH $155B IN BACKLOG
*CAPEX $23.95B, EST. $22.38B
*SEES FY CAPEX $91B TO $93B, SAW ABOUT $85B, EST. $84.04B
MICROSOFT 1Q:
*REV. $77.67B, EST. $75.55B
*EPS $3.72, EST. $3.67
*CLOUD REV. $49.1B, EST. $48.6B
*INTELLIGENT CLOUD REV. $30.9B, EST. $30.18B
*CAPEX INCLUDING LEASES $34.9B, EST. $30.06B
*2Q REV. TO BE $79.5B TO $80.6B
*2Q AZURE TO GROW 37% IN CONSTANT CURRENCY
META 3Q:
*REV. $51.24B, EST. $49.59B
*EPS $1.05 VS. $6.03 Y/Y
*OPER INCOME $20.54B, +18% Y/Y
*TAKES $15.93B NON-CASH CHARGE ON TAX BILL
*SEES 4Q REV. $56B TO $59B, EST. $57.38B
*SEES FY CAPEX $70B TO $72b, SAW $66B TO $72B, EST. $69.3B
*EXPECTS CAPEX DOLLAR GROWTH NOTABLY LARGER IN 2026 VS 2025
CONF. CALL:
*PICHAI: GOOGLE EXCITED TO PARTNER WITH ANTHROPIC ON 1M TPUS
*MICROSOFT CFO: AZURE CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS THROUGH END OF FISCAL
*META CFO: PLANS 'AGGRESSIVE' INVESTMENT IN COMPUTE INFRASTRUCTURE
POWELL: RATE CUT IN DECEMBER IS 'FAR FROM' FOREGONE CONCLUSION
POWELL: THERE WERE STRONGLY DIFFERING VIEWS TODAY
POWELL: UNCERTAINTY ON DECEMBER MOVE NEEDS TO BE TAKEN ON BOARD
POWELL: TODAY'S CUT WAS RISK MANAGEMENT
POWELL: GOING FORWARD IS A DIFFERENT THING
POWELL: DON'T KNOW WHAT DATA WE'LL GET BEFORE DECEMBER FOMC
POWELL: STRONGLY DIFFERING VIEWS WERE REALLY ABOUT THE FUTURE
NVIDIA'S INSANE RUN: INFINITYHEDGE
$0.5T: Nov, 2022 (Chatgpt released)
$1T: May, 2023
$2T: Feb, 2024
$3T: Jun, 2024
$4T: Jul, 2025
$5T: Oct, 2025