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Fastest Breaking Markets Updates Crypto • Finance • Technology • War
The Week Ahead: infinityhedge
Mon:
*Monad Mainnet
*Grayscale's DOGE & XRP ETF starts trading
*Singapore Exchange will launch BTC and ETH perp future
*Saylor expected announce another BTC purchase (at 91k?)
Tue:
*Alibaba earnings
*MegaETH Pre-Deposit Bridge: USDC on ETH→ USDm on Mainnet (Frontier), $250M cap.
*U.S. Sept. retail sales, PPI
Wed:
*U.K. budget (expected tax rises)
*Fed’s Beige Book
Thu: Thanksgiving
Fri:
*International Buy Nothing Day
*Black Friday
TBA/Whole Week:
⊷ Zelenskiy-Trump Potential Meeting (U.S. tells Ukraine: Take the peace deal - or else will cut off intelligence sharing & weapons supplies)
⊷ US Supreme Court hears arguments on Trump’s tariffs (IEEPA) continues
⊷ December rate cut odds back above 60%
⊷ China vs Japan diplomatic war continues
⊷ Naver expected to confirm its plan to acquire Dunamu (operator of Upbit), Upbit to pursue Nasdaq IPO after merger
⊷ Claude Opus 4.5 release
ICYMI:
⊷ Short-term correlation btw BTC and Nasdaq 100 hit a new high
⊷ US probes Bitmain over national security concerns
⊷ Microstrategy faces risk of being dropped from MSCI USA & Nasdaq 100. A decision on index inclusion is expected by Jan. 15, MSCI is proposing to exclude from the MSCI Global Indexes companies whose digital asset holdings represent 50% or more of their total assets.
⊷ Cardano experienced a temporary chain partition on Sat. after a malformed transaction triggered a bug in an underlying software library. "around 60-70% ran node B (bug)...Eventually A became the longest chain and fork B was resolved, yet most of the history and progress was preserved & the malformed transaction removed. Network recovered & self-healed"
⊷ Numerai Raised $30M Series C At $500M Valuation
⊷ Jump Trading has become active on prediction markets
⊷ Offchain Labs challenges Vitalik’s RISC-V proposal, says WASM better for Ethereum L1
⊷ Google released Gemini 3 Pro, most advanced foundation model with record benchmark scores; Google also released Nano Banana Pro that can produce better visuals with precise and legible text in multiple languages.
⊷ S&P 500 Reporting Highest Revenue Growth in 3 Years
⊷ Record Memory Shortage: 'HDD, DRAM, HBM, NAND... all in severe shortage in 2026'
https://infinityhedge.substack.com/p/the-7-days-0ff
BITCOIN DROPS BELOW $82,000 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVEN MONTHS
ETH DROPS BELOW $2,700 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST FIVE MONTHS
CRYPTO MARKET DROPS TO $2.5T; ALTCOIN MARKET CAP DROPS BELOW $900B: INFINITYHEDGE
SEPT. NFP PREVIEW: INFINITYHEDGE
CONSENSUS: 55K
HIGH: 105K
LOW: 25K
GS: 80K
JPM: 50k
S&P 500 reaction:
>100k: flat to -1.5%
70k-100k: ±0.5%
0k-70k: +0.2% to 1%
< 0k: flat to -1%
*SPX implied move: ~1.40%
*GS: weaker news will be taken as evidence that the jobs market was already soft, but better news will only provide limited reassurance given weakness in some more recent data in October. NVDA earnings are a larger catalyst for large cap equities than the NFP release
DECEMBER RATE CUT ODDS DROPS TO 30% AFTER BLS RESCHEDULES JOBS REPORT TO DEC.
US NOV. JOBS REPORT RESCHEDULED FOR DEC. 16 (AFTER DEC. FOMC): INFINITYHEDGE
OCT. JOBS DATA WILL BE PUBLISHED WITH THE NOV. JOBS DATA
SEPT. JOBS DATA WILL BE PUBLISHED TOMORROW
The Week Ahead: infinityhedge
Week Ahead: Shutdown ends, Epstein returns
Mon:
*Saylor expected announce another BTC purchase (“we’ll report our next buys on Monday morning. I think people will be pleasantly surprised”)
*Crypto: AAVE’s announcement (unknown)
*Monad ICO on Coinbase’s New platform
*Fed’s Kashkari speaks (Didn’t Support Last Cut, Undecided on Dec.)
Tue:
*Earnings: Baidu
*U.S. House plans to vote on releasing Epstein files
*Trump Remarks at McDonald’s Impact Summit
*Crypto: Filecoin’s announcement (Filecoin Onchain Cloud)
*Saudi Crown Prince Salman to meet Trump at WH, first trip in 7years.
Wed:
*US accounting standard-setter will discuss whether to tackle how companies should report crypto transfers in their financial reports.
*FOMC Minutes
*China interest rate announcement
Thu:
*U.S. Jobs report, first data since shutdown starts
*Fed’s Cook speaks
*Nvidia Q3, Walmart Earnings
Fri:
*Foxconn annual tech day: Nvidia and Apple supplier will showcase AI applications
*Fed’s Barr, Collins speaks
TBA/Whole Week: US Supreme Court hears arguments on Trump’s tariffs (IEEPA) continues; Investors will be looking for any evidence of weakness in the labor market or evidence that inflation is slowing. Several Fed members suggested rates could stay unchanged next month, December rate cut odds dropped below 50%; China vs Japan diplomatic war
ICYMI:
⊷ Berkshire Hathaway reveals $4.3B stake in Google as it trims Apple holdings.
⊷ BOE allows exceptions to stablecoin ownership limits; AND No, The EU Will Not Require ID For Every BTC Transaction.
⊷ US Lawmakers released a much-awaited crypto market structure bill.
⊷ Japan moves to reclassify crypto and adopt major tax relief, seeks to reduce the current maximum 55% tax on crypto gains to 20%; Also Japan Exchange Group weighs tighter oversight of listed DATs.
⊷ US most advanced aircraft carrier arrives in the Caribbean on Sunday, The Ford rounds off the largest buildup of U.S. firepower in the region in generations. With its arrival, the “Operation Southern Spear” mission includes nearly a dozen Navy ships & about 12k sailors and Marines.
https://infinityhedge.substack.com/p/the-7-days-6d5
WHITE HOUSE: OCTOBER CPI AND JOBS DATA LIKELY NEVER TO BE RELEASED
“The Democrats may have permanently damaged the federal statistical system with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released,” Leavitt told reporters at a news briefing.
The Week Ahead: infinityhedge
Mon:
*Longest U.S. Gov shutdown enters its 41th day
*Saylor expected announce another BTC purchase
*CBOE to launch continuous futures contracts for BTC & ETH
*Coinbase to launch some Launchpad or something
Wed:
*Fed’s Barr, Williams, Waller, Paulson speaks
*Circle earnings
Thu: Fed’s Hammack speaks
TBA/Whole Week:
*All eyes will also be on whether U.S. lawmakers can agree to end shutdown.
*US Supreme Court hears arguments on Trump’s tariffs (IEEPA) continues *U.S. Gov data expected to be delayed due to the shutdown.
BE: Even if the gov were to reopen, it’s unlikely BLS would be able to collect & process data for both the Oct. and Nov. CPI reports ahead of the Dec FOMC meeting.
ICYMI:
⊷ Borrowing to fund Al datacenter exploded in Sept & Oct; BofA data shows $75B of U.S. investment grade debt issued by AI-focused Big Tech hit the market in Sept. & Oct. alone, more than double the sector’s average annual issuance of $32B btw 2015-2024. Plus A surge in Oracle credit default swaps shows investors are worried about the U.S. tech giant’s debt levels. Microsoft's Longest Selloff Since 2011; Meta Tumbles Most Since 2022 Metaverse Selloff. Also OpenAI Asks US to Expand Chips Tax Credit to AI Data Centers: infinityhedge
⊷ CFTC’s Pham Moves to Launch Spot Crypto Trading Without Congress as soon as next month. Pham has held talks with CFTC-regulated DCMs exchanges like CME, Cboe Futures, ICE Futures, Coinbase Derivatives, Kalshi and Polymarket US, about launching spot crypto trading products involving margin, leverage, and financing.
⊷ U.S. Senate on Sunday moved forward on a measure aimed at reopening gov. Senate adjourned until Monday & has not yet scheduled a vote for final passage. House also needs to approve the measure, House passage is not guaranteed. It’s not yet clear how quickly the shutdown can end. Senate will need the consent of all members to end the shutdown quickly. Any one senator can force days of procedural delays. Prediction Markets expecting shutdown will end btw 12-15th Nov with 80% odds.
⊷ The combined amount of crypto loans reached $73.6B in the 3Q, surpassing the previous record of $69.4B set in the 4Q of 2021.
⊷ China’s central bank purchased gold for its reserves for a 12th straight month.
https://infinityhedge.substack.com/p/the-7-days-9c0
GTA 6 DELAYED AGAIN TO 19 NOV, 2026: INFINITYHEDGE
Читать полностью…
BITCOIN DROPS BELOW $100K FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE JUNE
Читать полностью…
The Week Ahead: infinityhedge
Mon:
*Hong Kong financial summit from 3 to 5 Nov.; Goldman’s Solomon, Morgan Stanley’s Ted and BlackRock’s Larry & Citadel’s Griffin will speak
*U.S. Gov shutdown enters its 34th day (On Track to be longest in history)
*Saylor expected announce another BTC purchase
*U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
*Palantir Earnings
Tue:
*U.S. court will hear arguments for Sam Bankman-Fried’s appeal (a new trial or reversal of conviction) at 10am ET; If the panel of judges gets deeply involved with the hearing that may be a sign that it is considering whether to order a new trial OR if hearing is short & quick means court affirming the conviction
*Monad timeline/Tokenomics something expected ?
*AMD, Super Micro Earnings
Wed:
*U.S. Treasury quarterly refunding: Treasury (likely keeping guidance unchanged)
*U.S. October ADP employment report, ISM Services PMI
*US Supreme Court hears arguments on the legality of about 60% of Trump’s tariffs (IEEPA)
*Robinhood, arm, qualcomm earnings
Thu:
*Tesla shareholders will vote on Musk’s $1 Trillion pay package
*Samourai Wallet devs Sentencing 11am ET
Fri: China Gold Reserves this week
TBA/Whole Week: Worldwide Oct. services & PMIs, U.S. Gov data expected to be delayed due to the shutdown, All eyes will also be on whether U.S. lawmakers can agree to end the shutdown, & Investors will be looking for any evidence of weakness in the labor market or evidence that inflation is slowing to increase Dec. rate cut odds which has dropped to 50% from 99% after powell’s presser.
ICYMI:
⊷ Earnings Beats Almost Across the Board for Mag 7; S&P 500 Reporting Double-Digit Earnings Growth for 4th Straight Quarter, last time the S&P 500 reported 4 consecutive Q's of double-digit earnings growth was Q1 2021 through Q4 2021. Analysts believe S&P 500 will report double-digit earnings growth in 4 of the next 5 Q's (through Q4 2026)
⊷ There will not be "nuclear explosions," energy secretary says on Trump's call to test weapons
⊷ OpenAI May Target $1 Trillion Valuation in IPO; OpenAI is giving Microsoft a 27% ownership stake worth about $135B, It will also continue to receive 20% of OpenAI’s revenue; OpenAI Made a $12 Billion Loss Last Quarter.
⊷ On Oct. 28, three new crypto spot ETFs began trading in the U.S. markets, In the coming months, more ETFs are expected to target assets that meet the new generic listing standards, potential candidates could include DOGE, BCH, LINK, XLM, AVAX, SHIB, DOT and ADA.
⊷ Bank of Korea May Buy Gold from a medium- to long-term perspective, for the first time in more than a decade
⊷ Buffett’s Berkshire Cash Hits $382 Billion.
⊷ Balancer Hit by $110M Exploit (hacked for 3rd time now); Berachain validators purposefully halt the Berachain network as the core team performs an emergency hard fork to address Balancer V2 related exploits.
⊷ MSFT CEO says "the biggest issue we are now having is not a compute glut, but it's a power. And it's sort of the ability to get the builds done fast enough, close to power. So if you can't do that, you may actually have a bunch of chips sitting in inventory that I can't plug in. And in fact, that is my problem today, right? It's not a supply issue of chips. It's actually the fact that I don't have warm shells to plug into": Source in substack
https://infinityhedge.substack.com/p/the-7-days-2cf
COINBASE 3Q EARNINGS:
*REV. $1.87B, EST. $1.8B
*EPS $1.5, EST. $1.2
*SUBSCRIPTION, SERVICES REV. $747M, EST. $734M
*ADJUSTED EBITDA $801M, EST. $695.7M
*TXN REV. $1.04B VS 764M (Q2'25)
*TRADING VOL $295B VS 237B (Q2'25)
*COINBASE SEES 4Q SUBSCRIPTION & SERVICES REV. $710M TO $790M
AMAZON 3Q:
*NET SALES $180.17B, EST. $177.82B
*EPS $1.95, EST. $1.58
*AWS NET SALES $33B, EST. $32.39B
*AMAZON SEES 4Q NET SALES $206.0B TO $213.0B, EST. $208.45B
*AMAZON SEES 4Q OPER INCOME $21.0B TO $26.0B, EST. $23.78B
*AMAZON'S JASSY: AWS GROWING AT PACE WE HAVEN'T SEEN SINCE 2022
APPLE 4Q:
*EPS $1.85, EST. $1.77
*REV. $102.47B, EST. $102.19B
*SERVICES REV $28.75B, EST. $28.18B
*APPLE 4Q IPHONE REVENUE $49.03B, EST. $49.33B
*GREATER CHINA REV. $14.49B, EST. $16.43B
META LOOKS TO RAISE AT LEAST $25 BILLION FROM BOND SALE
Meta has begun marketing a dollar-bond sale in as many as six parts, ranging from 5 to 40 years in length.
Initial price talk of the 40-year note is for a premium of about 1.4 % points above Treasuries.
INFINITYHEDGE:
CHINA AND THE US TO EXTEND SOME TARIFF EXCLUSIONS
CHINA TO SUSPEND SHIPPING CURBS AGAINST US FOR A YEAR
US TO SUSPEND 50% ENTITY LIST EXPORT CONTROLS FOR A YEAR
CHINA WILL SUSPEND RARE EARTH EXPORT CONTROLS AND OTHER MEASURES ANNOUNCED ON OCT. 9 FOR ONE YEAR
CHINA: US WILL SUSPEND SECTION 301 INVESTIGATION; CHINA WILL PAUSE COUNTERMEASURES RELATED TO 301 INVESTIGATION FOR A YEAR
US EXTENDS SUSPENSION OF 24% RECIPROCAL TARIFF FOR ONE YEAR
MORE THAN $2 BILLION IN CRYPTO POSITIONS LIQUIDATED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS: INFINITYHEDGE
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US SEPT. NFP: 119K
US SEPT. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.4%
US JULY PAYROLLS REVISED TO 72K FROM 79K
US AUG. PAYROLLS REVISED TO -4K FROM 22K
US SEPT. TWO-MONTH PAYROLL NET REVISION SUBTRACTS 33K
FED SWAPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DECEMBER RATE CUT UNLIKELY: INFINITYHEDGE
BE: “Sept. NFP didn’t strengthen the case for a Dec. rate cut...Hiring likely slid in Oct. and Nov. – but those data won’t be released until Dec. 16, so the Sept. report is the only official jobs data FED will have at the Dec. 9-10 FOMC meeting. Based on the strength of September’s payrolls and the delays to subsequent data, we see increasing risks of a rate hold in December.”....."the Beige Book may once again be the determining factor for December cut."
*NVIDIA 3Q ADJ EPS $1.30
*NVIDIA 3Q REV. $57.01B, EST. $55.19B
*NVIDIA 3Q ADJ GROSS MARGIN 73.6%
*NVIDIA 3Q DATA CENTER REVENUE $51.2B, EST. $49.34B
*NVIDIA SEES 4Q REV. $63.70B TO $66.30B, EST. $61.98B
NVIDIA 3Q EARNINGS PREVIEW: INFINITYHEDGE
*Consensus: Beat & Raise
*Rev. EST.: $54.92B
*EPS EST.: $1.26
*7.2% Implied move in either direction for stock, the options-implied move would represent the largest one-day market value change for Nvidia (~$320 billion price swing).
*1.7% Implied Move in either direction for SPX
*SPX realized moves have been below the options implied moves in 7 of the past 10 NVDA earnings events (very muted reaction in the last two earnings)
*According to JPMorgan the so-called whisper rev. numbers are even higher. "Survey says $56.32b (Q3) & $63.02b (Q4)": INFINITYHEDGE
Key focus:
*guidance for next quarter and beyond next quarter
*any note on health of the cash flow
*insights into the $500B Datacenter rev. forecast in combined orders for 2025 & 2026
*details about OpenAI deployments in terms of timing, rev. in CY26; Blackwell, Rubin ramp in CY26; about deal with Nokia, Intel investment and China licenses
AMAZON SEEKS TO RAISE ABOUT $12
BILLION FROM US BOND OFFERING
AMAZON SELLS BONDS FOR FIRST TIME IN 3 YEARS WITH 6-PART OFFERING, 40-YEAR BOND PRICED AT 1.15% OVER TREASURIES
DECEMBER RATE CUT ODDS DROPS TO 50% VS 65% BEFORE THE LEAVITT COMMENT: INFINITYHEDGE
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WORLD’S BIGGEST STABLECOIN COMPANY TETHER HIRES TOP HSBC GOLD TRADERS TO TAKE ON BULLION MARKET
Tether holds more than $12B in gold reserves, added gold holdings at an avg. rate of more than one ton/week in the year through september.
Tether earned $13B in profits last year from reserve assets, expects $15B in 2025.
FYI: Tether also held talks about investing in the entire gold supply chain, from mining and refining to trading and royalty companies according to FT.
ZCASH SURPASSES HYPE IN MARKET CAP: INFINITYHEDGE
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OCTOVER STATS: INFINITYHEDGE
*BTC CLOSED OCTOBER RED FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 7 YEARS
*MORE THAN $45B LIQUIDATED IN CRYPTO POSITIONS
*INVESTORS LOST $10B+ IN DAT'S
*~$100M LOST IN CRYPTO EXPLOITS
*CRYPTO MARKET LOST $1T, DOWN 25% FROM RECORD HIGH
*MSTR DOWN 32%, CRCL DOWN 30%, COIN DOWN 20%, GLXY DOWN 27%
*DAT'S: BMNR DOWN 40%, SBET DOWN 40%, FORD DOWN 60% (SOL)
*ETF FLOWS: BTC +$0.2B; ETH -$0.5B
*ALMOST ALL DAT'S MNAV DROPPED BELOW 1, MSTR MNAV DROPPED TO ALMOST 1
*BTC DOWN 19%, ETH DOWN 29%, SOL DOWN 33%, XRP DOWN 27%, BNB DOWN 29%
*MOST OCT. U.S. LAYOFFS SINCE 2003
*LONGEST U.S. GOV SHUTDOWN
*S&P 500 +0.7%, GOLD +1.7%, DOLLAR INDEX +1.7%, NVDA +6%, GOOGL +16%, META -10%
DXY DOLLAR INDEX RISES TO 5-MONTH HIGH OF 100.36
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ALPHABET LOOKING TO RAISE $15 BILLION FROM US DOLLAR BOND SALE
ALPHABET LAUNCHES EIGHT-PART DOLLAR BOND SALE RANGING FROM 3 TO 50 YEARS, TARGETING 1.35% PREMIUM OVER TREASURIES FOR LONGEST MATURITY
ALPHABET ALSO SEEKING TO RAISE €6.25 BILLION IN EUROPE'S DEBT MARKET
AFTER META NOW ALPHABET RAISING BILLIONS THROUGH BOND SALES TO FUND AI EXPANSION
ALPHABET'S US DOLLAR BOND SALE DRAWS ABOUT $90B DEMAND
ALPHABET BOOSTED THE SIZE OF ITS US DOLLAR CORPORATE BOND SALE TO $17.5 BILLION
THE OFFERING MARKS THE BIGGEST EVER BOND SALE SOLD BY ALPHABET
ZCASH SURPASSES MONERO IN MARKET CAP
ZCASH HITS EIGHT-YEAR HIGH
META'S BIGGEST BOND SALE DRAWS RECORD $125 BILLION OF DEMAND
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JPMORGAN TOKENIZES PRIVATE EQUITY FUND ON BANK'S OWN BLOCKCHAIN: WSJ
The move comes ahead of JPMorgan's broader rollout next year of its fund tokenization platform, Kinexys Fund Flow.
JPMorgan's Kinexys Fund Flow platform collects data from fund managers, distributors and administrators, creates smart contracts representing fund ownership, and facilitates the near-instant exchanging of cash and assets on the blockchain.
JPMorgan expects to tokenize additional alternative investment strategies, including private credit, real estate, and hedge funds, in the future. The bank is also exploring the possibility of allowing clients to use fund tokens as collateral for borrowing or constructing a portfolio of tokenized assets.
TRUMP: WILL REDUCE CHINA FENTANYL TARIFF TO 10%
TRUMP: TARIFFS ON CHINA WILL BE 47% DOWN FROM 57%
CHINA TO BUY SOYBEANS IMMEDIATELY
ALL THE RARE EARTH ISSUE HAS BEEN SETTLED
IT'S A ONE-YEAR AGREEMENT THAT WILL BE EXTENDED
GOING TO CHINA IN APRIL