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Fastest Breaking Markets Updates Crypto • Finance • Technology • War
*TRADERS PRICE IN LESS FED EASING THIS YEAR AFTER FOMC STATEMENT
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Anthropic CEO on DeepSeek: LINK
*DeepSeek produced a model close to the performance of US models 7-10 months older, for a good deal less cost (but not anywhere near the ratios people have suggested.
*DeepSeek-V3 is not a unique breakthrough or something that fundamentally changes the economics of LLM’s; it’s an expected point on an ongoing cost reduction curve. What’s different this time is that the company that was first to demonstrate the expected cost reductions was Chinese. US companies will soon follow suit — and they won’t do this by copying DeepSeek, but because they too are achieving the usual trend in cost reduction.
*It's been reported DeepSeek actually had 50k Hopper generation chips6, which I'd guess is within a factor ~2-3x of what the major US AI companies have. Those 50k Hopper chips cost on the order of ~$1B. Thus, DeepSeek's total spend as a company (as distinct from spend to train an individual model) is not vastly different from US AI labs.
*R1, which is the model that was released last week and which triggered an explosion of public attention (including a ~17% decrease in Nvidia's stock price), is much less interesting from an innovation or engineering perspective than V3.
*Making AI that is smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will require millions of chips, tens of billions of dollars (at least), and is most likely to happen in 2026-2027. (AGI prediction?👀)
Cardano Roadmap for 2025: Link
*Cardano plans transition to 'full decentralized governance' after Wednesday's Plomin hard fork: LINK
TRUMP MEDIA (DJT) TO EXPAND INTO FINANCIAL SERVICES WITH CHARLES SCHWAB
TRUMP MEDIA GROUP TO INVEST $250M INTO SMAS, ETFS, CRYPTO
🚨⚠️ Apple CPUs hit by 2 new vulnerabilities: SLAP & FLOP
*Apple chips can be hacked to leak credit card info, inbox content from Gmail, Proton Mail, and sensitive login-protected data from target webpages.
*Attacks executed remotely through a web browser using a malicious webpage containing JavaScript or WebAssembly code. A victim would just need to visit a malicious website for the secrets to leak, bypassing browser sandboxing, ASLR, and traditional memory protections.
*Apple Devices affected: All devices dating back as far as 2021. Older devices with M1 or earlier chips not impacted by these particular vulnerabilities. @infinityhedge
*Avoid untrusted websites, disable JavaScript when not needed. Use Browser extensions that block scripts like uBlock Origin.
*Apple stated it plans to address the issues. But said "Based on our analysis, we do not believe this issue poses an immediate risk to our users."
*Again for the 1000th time: IF YOU HOLD CRYPTO, DO NOT VISIT UNKNOWN WEBSITES
NVIDIA SHORT SELLERS RAKE IN $6.7 BILLION IN PROFIT AFTER STOCK'S NEAR 17% DROP ON MONDAY IN RECORD SINGLE-DAY GAIN: ORTEX DATA
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RETAIL INVESTORS BOUGHT RECORD $562M NVIDIA STOCK DURING MONDAY'S DEEPSEEK-LED ROUT: VANDA RESEARCH
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Nvidia statement on DeepSeek:
"DeepSeek is an excellent AI advancement and a perfect example of Test Time Scaling. DeepSeek’s work illustrates how new models can be created using that technique, leveraging widely-available models and compute that is fully export control compliant. Inference requires significant numbers of NVIDIA GPUs and high-performance networking. We now have three scaling laws: pre-training and post-training, which continue, and new test-time scaling"
*Nvidia’s statement indicates that it believes that the Chinese company didn’t violate US restrictions that limit access to advanced US chips in the creation of its technology. Most of Nvidia’s best products can’t be sold to Chinese companies without licenses from Washington — permits that are not typically granted.
DEEPSEEK: DUE TO LARGE-SCALE MALICIOUS ATTACKS ON DEEPSEEK'S SERVICES, REGISTRATION IS TEMPORARILY LIMITED TO +86 PHONE NUMBERS. EXISTING USERS CAN LOG IN AS USUAL.
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*DEEPSEEK AI BUZZ WIPES OUT $1TRILLION FROM US TECH STOCKS
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The Week Ahead | @infinityhedge | Major Earnings
WEEKLY US SPOT ETF FLOWS:
*BTC: +$1.76B
*ETH: +$140M
US BTC SPOT ETF Options:
*Total OI Call/Put Ratio(Nominal): 2.13
*Total OI Call/Put Ratio(Delta): 5.77
Macro:
*Chinese New Year on 28
*Fed Interest Rate Decision on 29, All eyes will instead be on Powell's subsequent press conference for clues as to what comes next. Market will get relief if Powell underscores his typical data-dependent approach and leaves the market’s now modest rate-cut expectations intact.
*BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino speaks on 30
*US GDP (QoQ) (Q4) on 30
*US Core PCE on 31
Earnings:
*Profits for the MAG7 are projected to increase by 22% in the Q4 from a year earlier, the smallest jump since the Q1 of 2023. While that’s still well above the 8% increase anticipated for the S&P 500 Index, it’s down from the 51% increase seen in the Q1 and shrinking for a 4th straight Q.
*Options on most of the biggest companies reporting this week imply smaller than usual share moves. The average implied moves are the lowest going into earnings since the 4Q23 earnings season: JPMorgan
*Microsoft, Meta, Tesla Earnings on 29
*Apple, Intel Earnings on 30
Crypto:
*Uniswap v4 launch this week expected
*Abstract Chain mainnet on 27
*Major Token Unlocks: $SUI: $230M on Feb1
Post will be refreshed w/ new info and Graphics/Articles are in the group⬎
DeepSeek founder when asked about GPT5 has still not been released:
“OpenAI is not a god, they won’t necessarily always be at the forefront.”
“Right now I don’t see any new approaches, but big firms do not have a clear upper hand. Big firms have existing customers, but their cash-flow businesses are also their burden, and this makes them vulnerable to disruption at any time.
^Markets getting deep-seeked by quant hedge fund's AI
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There’s been talk of using a blockchain to track federal spending, secure data, make payments and even manage buildings, the people said: Bloomberg
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*FED REMOVES REFERENCE TO INFLATION MAKING PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL
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TRUMP OFFICIALS DISCUSS TIGHTENING CURBS ON NVIDIA CHINA SALES
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LUTNICK: TETHER DID NO BUSINESS WITH ANYONE WHO WASN’T KYC-APPROPRIATE
LUTNICK: US DOLLAR STABLECOINS SHOULD BE AUDITED
ROBINHOOD HAS "BEGUN ROLLING OUT" FUTURES TRADING INCLUDING BTC, FX AND STOCKS
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Banks expect Fed will take longer than they previously anticipated to end QT.
*Powell last referenced QT at the Nov. press conference when he compared decisions about slowing the asset runoff to deciding to pause rate cuts. With the Fed widely expected to keep rates on hold Wednesday, that’s heightened focus on any comments on its QT outlook.
Coming Today:
*Fed Rate Decision: no change in rates
*Chair Powell Speaks: market will be watching powell how he responds to questions related to "risks of tariffs/inflation", "trump wants lower rates/FED independence", "restrictiveness of rates/guidance about future rate cuts", "path of QT"...
Earnings Estimates:
*META: EPS: $6.74, Rev. $47B
*MSFT: EPS: $3.12, Rev. $68.8B
*TSLA: EPS: $0.77, Rev. $27.1B
*Market will be looking at mark Zuckerberg's & others response to Deepseek and Capex commitments
FRENCH INVESTIGATORS HAVE OPENED JUDICIAL PROBE INTO MONEY LAUNDERING, TAX FRAUD, DRUG TRAFFICKING, OTHER CHARGES AGAINST CRYPO PLATFORM BINANCE: RTRS
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*NVIDIA HAS LOST $590 BILLION IN MARKET VALUE, THE LARGEST SINGLE-DAY DECLINE IN MARKET HISTORY
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DEEPSEEK DROPPED NEW JANUS 7B MODEL, CAPABLE OF GENERATING IMAGES: LINK
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DEEPSEEK: CURRENTLY, ONLY REGISTRATION WITH A MAINLAND CHINA MOBILE PHONE NUMBER IS SUPPORTED.
*DEEPSEEK: TO ENSURE CONTINUED SERVICE, REGISTRATION IS TEMPORARILY LIMITED TO +86 PHONE NUMBERS.
*S&P 500 OPENS DOWN 2.1%, NASDAQ DECLINES 3.5%
*NVIDIA SHARES SINK 13% IN BIGGEST DROP SINCE 2020
*MICROSTRATEGY BOUGHT 10.1K BTC FOR $1.1B AT AVG PRICE OF $105,596
*Total Holdings: 471,107 BTC
*Average Price: $64,511/BTC
U.S. STOCK INDEX FUTURES EXTEND LOSSES; S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES DOWN 2.3%, NASDAQ FUTURES SLIDE 4%, DOW FUTURES FALL 1%
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*BTC DOWN 7%
*GOLD DOWN 1%
*PRE-MARKET MOVES:
META DOWN 4.5%
TESLA DOWN 3.5%
NVIDIA DOWN 8%
GOOGLE DOWN 3.2%
AMAZON DOWN 3.5%
MICROSOFT DOWN 3.5%
BROADCOM DOWN 8%
Likely Reasons:
*China's AI Fear, China developing AI despite huge sanctions by US on GPUs
*China's deepseek has surpassed ChatGPT in App store rankings, Meta in panic mode, fear deepseek is better than upcoming Llama 4..
*BOJ raised interest rates to 17 years high
*First FOMC meeting under Trump & Major Tech Earnings coming this week....
MUSK EXPLORING BLOCKCHAIN USE IN US GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY PUSH: BBG
*People affiliated with DOGE have met with representatives of various public blockchains to evaluate their technology