infinityhedge

19 May 2025 00:05

The Week Ahead | infinityhedge

Mon/19:
*Trump will speak to Putin
*Coinbase to Join S&P 500
*Saylor expected to announce another BTC purchase
*US Senate to vote on the Stablecoin bill “GENIUS Act”
*CME to launch XRP futures
*$PYTH Token unlock: $330M (57.8%)

Tue/20: Google I/O, Google’s biggest developer conference: updates to AI Models, Android 16

Wed/21: Baidu Earnings

Thu/22: Trump dinner with top 220 $TRUMP Token holders

Sun/25: Fed Chair Powell Speaks

TBA/Whole Week: Trump's 'big, beautiful' tax bill, U.S. debt and deficit, Trade deals?

ICYMI: UK overtook China to become the second-largest U.S. Treasury holder for the first time ever; Moody’s lowered the US credit score to Aa1 from Aaa on Friday; Bessent said on Sunday that U.S. may impose some tariffs by region rather than on individual countries, as time runs out to negotiate a laundry list of trade deals globally. Bessent told NBC that if they’re not negotiating in good faith, they are going to get a letter saying here is the rate, so I would expect that everyone would come and negotiate in good faith, Those that get the letter will face the tariff rate that the White House announced on April 2.

*More about the week Ahead and What Happened last week: https://open.substack.com/pub/infinityhedge/p/the-7-days-160

infinityhedge

15 May 2025 21:44

COINBASE SUED AFTER SCAMMERS BRIBED WORKERS TO REVEAL USER DATA: BBG

infinityhedge

13 May 2025 16:29

MICROSOFT CUTTING 3% OF ALL WORKERS - CNBC

*Microsoft had 228,000 employees as of last June.

infinityhedge

06 May 2025 15:34

Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2

https://youtu.be/VQRLujxTm3c

infinityhedge

01 May 2025 18:43

TRUMP: PUT SANCTIONS ON IRANIAN OIL YESTERDAY, WHOEVER TAKES OIL FROM IRAN CANNOT DO BUSINESS WITH US

infinityhedge

16 April 2025 19:31

POWELL: MAY FIND OURSELVES IN SCENARIO WITH MANDATES IN TENSION

POWELL: WELL POSITIONED TO WAIT FOR MORE CLARITY FOR TIME BEING

POWELL: CAN’T HAVE STRONG LABOR MARKET WITHOUT PRICE STABILITY

infinityhedge

09 April 2025 13:00

CHINA FINANCE MINISTRY: TO IMPOSE ADDITIONAL TARIFFS OF 84% ON U.S. GOODS FROM APRIL 10

infinityhedge

08 April 2025 14:00

RIPPLE: ACQUIRES PRIME BROKER HIDDEN ROAD FOR $1.25B

infinityhedge

07 April 2025 21:33

Trump says we’re not looking at a potential pause in tariffs

“We have many, many countries that are coming to negotiate deals with us, and they’re going to be fair deals, and in certain cases, they’re going to be paying substantial tariffs.”

“There can be permanent tariffs and there can also be negotiations because there are things that we need beyond tariffs.”

“We have a great relationship with Japan. We’re going to keep it that way, but they’re coming in to meet.”

infinityhedge

02 April 2025 22:26

*TRUMP: RECIPROCAL RATE WILL BE HALF THEIR TARIFF RATE

infinityhedge

25 March 2025 21:06

GAMESTOP ANNOUNCES UPDATE TO ITS INVESTMENT POLICY TO ADD BITCOIN AS A TREASURY RESERVE ASSET

infinityhedge

07 March 2025 18:05

*TRUMP ON CANADA: MAY DO RECIPROCAL TARIFFS AS EARLY AS TODAY OR MONDAY

infinityhedge

28 February 2025 18:57

TRUMP, ZELENSKIY, VANCE ARGUE IN THE OVAL OFFICE

More Updates After This Heated Exchange:

TRUMP: ZELENSKIY NOT READY FOR PEACE

TRUMP: ZELENSKIY CAN COME BACK WHEN HE IS READY FOR PEACE

TRUMP: ZELENSKYY 'DISRESPECTED' U.S. IN OVAL OFFICE

TRUMP & ZELENSKIY PRESS CONFERENCE CANCELED

US, UKRAINE MINERALS DEAL WAS NOT SIGNED

infinityhedge

28 February 2025 15:00

CME GROUP TO LAUNCH SOLANA (SOL) FUTURES ON MARCH 17

infinityhedge

27 February 2025 14:50

*TRUMP: MEXICO, CANADA TARIFFS ON MARCH 4

*TRUMP: CHINA TO ALSO BE CHARGED ADDITIONAL 10% TARIFF THAT DATE

*TRUMP: APRIL 2 RECIPROCAL TARIFF DATE REMAINS IN FULL FORCE

infinityhedge

16 May 2025 14:55

ICYMI: Trump said on Friday that he’d set new tariff rates for trading partners "over the next two to three weeks," saying his administration lacks the capacity to negotiate deals with all of its trading partners. Bessent and Lutnick “will be sending letters out essentially telling people” what “they’ll be paying to do business in the United States.” Trump added “I think we’re going to be very fair. But it’s not possible to meet the number of people that want to see us.”

*Trump has held out the prospect that the US will set new tariff rates on many of its trading partners unilaterally, rather than striking deals with all of them.

infinityhedge

15 May 2025 12:58

COINBASE DATA LEAK ⚠️🚨

Coinbase: Cyber criminals bribed and recruited a group of rogue overseas support agents to steal Coinbase customer data to facilitate social engineering attacks. These insiders abused their access to customer support systems to steal the account data for a small subset of customers. We will reimburse customers who were tricked into sending funds to the attacker.

*Coinbase: We will not pay the $20M ransom demand we received. Instead we are establishing a $20M reward fund for information leading to the arrest and conviction of the criminals.

*Coinbase expects up to $400 million hit from cyber attack

infinityhedge

10 May 2025 02:10

PAKISTAN LAUNCHED RETALIATORY MILITARY ACTION AGAINST INDIA: PAKISTAN

infinityhedge

02 May 2025 13:08

S&P 500 AND NASDAQ ERASED ALMOST ALL LOSSES SINCE RECIPROCAL TARIFF ANNOUNCEMENT

So what's changed, developments so far:

*April 2: Trump announced reciprocal Tariffs all nations
*April 3: Lutnick said no chance trump will back off tariffs
*April 4: China announced retaliatory tariffs on US and imposed more export controls on rare earths
*April 7: Trump said their is no inflation FED should cut rates
*April 8: Trump on reducing tariffs on israel: maybe not
*April 9: China and the EU agreed to restart talks
*April 9: Trump announced tariff pause for 90 days with 10% Tariffs during this period (China was excluded from pause)
*April 10: China and EU discuss trade in response to U.S. tariffs
*April 10: Trump said Sectoral tariffs still coming, going to put tariffs on pharma companies (not announced yet)
*April 11: Trump exempted many electronics including smartphones, computers, semiconductors from reciprocal tariffs (China was included)
*April 13: Trump said electronics Exclusions are temporary & new more targeted tariffs are coming (sectoral tariffs)
*April 14: Bessent said prioritizing trade deals with the UK, Australia, South Korea, India, and Japan: infinityhedge
*April 15: Bessent said VIX likely peaked
*April 15: US announced it will impose 21% tariffs on Mexico tomatoes starting july 14
*April 15: EU Source said US tariffs to remain as talks make little progress
*April 16: Powell said economic impact of tariffs likely larger than expected; inflationary effects of tariffs may be more persistent; tariffs larger than we expected
*April 16: China pivots from US to Canada for more Oil
*April 17: Trump said powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!: infinityhedge
*April 18: US banned nvidia from exporting H20 chips to China, at $5.5B cost to Nvidia
*April 23: Trump said NO intention of firing powell
*April 23: Trump said US and China are actively talking about a trade deal, Trump said he will not call China's President XI first but XI called him but didn't share exactly when they talked
*April 24: China said China-US are not engaged in any negotiations over tariffs
*April 25: China quietly exempted some US made products ($40B) from Tariffs, strategic move mirrors to that electronic exemption by US
*April 25-28: US keep saying we are talking to China and China was keep saying we are not talking
*April 27: South Korea ruled out tariff deal with US before June 3 election
*April 28: Bessent said India might be one of first trade deals we'll sign
*April 29: US said EU not engaging well on tariff talks
*April 29: Trump walked back some Auto tariffs: 25% tariffs on vehicles will not be subject to other levies like 25% steel & aluminum tariffs & Carmakers will be able to qualify for some relief on imported components for the next two years.
*April 30: China to lift sanctions on EU lawmakers to unlock trade talks
*April 30: China Media said US reached out to China recently for tariff talk but China will not talk unless US do something meaningful first
*May 1: Trump threatened sanctions on anyone who buys Iranian oil (largest buyer is china), a warning after Tehran’s nuclear talks postponed
*May 1: BOJ's Uedo expects tarriffs to remain above 10% baseline and later that day Japanese finance minister said Japan’s US Treasury holdings a card in trade negotiation
*May 2: China said US reached out for talk via various channels, China is assessing the situation and reiterated that US should show sincerity & cancel the unilateral tariff first
*May 2: Japan firmly opposed US trade proposal. Japan to take stance that negotiations on reducing US trade deficit are difficult unless tariffs on autos, steel, aluminium are on negotiating table, US proposal included reluctance to exempt Japan from 10% tariffs & lowering tariffs on autos, steel, aluminium
*May 2: “de minimis” exemption from tariffs will end

*No deal Announced so far 90 days gone & 67 days left for Reciprocal Tariffs pause to end (China excluded from pause)

*Apollo Chief Economist: It normally takes 18 months on average for the US to negotiate a trade deal

infinityhedge

21 April 2025 15:43

*TRUMP: THERE COULD BE SLOWING OF ECONOMY IF POWELL DOESN’T CUT RATES

infinityhedge

09 April 2025 22:12

WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL: 90-DAY 'PAUSE' ON TARIFFS DOES NOT APPLY TO TARIFFS ON CANADA AND MEXICO

infinityhedge

08 April 2025 14:24

ZELENSKIY SAYS ONE MORE COUNTRY HAS JOINED RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE AND THAT HE EXPECTS U.S. REACTION TO THIS

ZELENSKIY: ORDERED OFFICIALS TO OBTAIN EXPLANATION FROM CHINA REGARDING ITS SOLDIERS FIGHTING IN UKRAINE

ZELENSKIY: KYIV'S FORCES FOUGHT SIX CHINESE SOLDIERS IN EASTERN UKRAINE, TOOK TWO OF THEM PRISONER

infinityhedge

07 April 2025 21:50

BBG: TRUMP ON REDUCING TARIFFS ON ISRAEL: MAYBE NOT

infinityhedge

04 April 2025 17:25

POWELL SAYS TRUMP TARIFFS BIGGER THAN EXPECTED, RISKING HIGHER INFLATION, SLOWER GROWTH

POWELL: THE IMPACT OF TARIFFS ON THE ECONOMY MAY BE GREATER THAN EXPECTED.

infinityhedge

31 March 2025 15:13

The Week Ahead:

Mon/31:
*AI: Midjourney V7 release

Tue/01: April Fool’s Day
*GameStop’s $1.3B convertible notes sale expected to close

Wed/02:
*Trump’s Tariff ‘Liberation Day’ (reciprocal tariffs); Canada, China, EU is set to impose retaliatory tariffs; Options Market Focused on Jobs & Inflation Over Tariff Reveal
*House Financial Services to vote on STABLE Act (stablecoin bill)

Thu/03:
*Trump's 25% auto tariff will come into effect
*Crypto: BUIDL ($500M), Superstate ($300M), Centrifuge ($200M) Win Spark’s $1B Tokenization Grand Prix. Vote scheduled for final allocation

Fri/04:
*US Non-Farm Payrolls (est. 138k, prev. 151k)
*Fed Chair Powell Speech At 11:25 AM
*Fed's Waller speech At 12:45 AM

Sat/05:
*TikTok deal deadline

WHOLE WEEK:
*U.S. Senate is expected to vote on a budget resolution

infinityhedge

19 March 2025 19:02

*FOMC MEDIAN FORECAST SHOWS 50 BPS OF RATE CUTS IN 2025 TO 3.9%

infinityhedge

02 March 2025 18:11

Crypto Czar David Sacks: President Trump has announced a Crypto Strategic Reserve consisting of Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrencies. This is consistent with his week-one E.O. 14178. President Trump is keeping his promise to make the U.S. the “Crypto Capital of the World.” More to come at the Crypto Summit.

infinityhedge

28 February 2025 18:25

TRUMP, ZELENSKIY, VANCE ARGUE IN THE OVAL OFFICE

TRUMP TO ZELENSKIY: YOU EITHER MAKE A DEAL OR WE ARE OUT

TRUMP TELLS ZELENSKIY HIS COMMENTS WERE VERY DISRESPECTFUL

TRUMP TELLS ZELENSKIY HE HAS TO BE THANKFUL

TRUMP TO ZELENSKIY: YOU DON'T HAVE THE CARDS RIGHT NOW

TRUMP: GOING TO BE VERY HARD TO DO BUSINESS LIKE THIS

infinityhedge

28 February 2025 14:30

*US JAN. PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US JAN. PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 2.5% Y/Y; EST. +2.5%
*US JAN. CORE PCE RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US JAN. CORE PCE RISES 2.6% Y/Y; EST. +2.6%

*PERSONAL INCOME RISES 0.9% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*PERSONAL SPENDING FALLS 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.1% (biggest drop since Feb 2021)
*REAL PERSONAL SPENDING FALLS 0.5% M/M; EST. -0.1% (biggest monthly decline in ~4 years)

*PCE was the only one of the 'hard' inflation indices to drop in January

infinityhedge

26 February 2025 22:21

NVDA EARNINGS:

*NVIDIA 4Q ADJ EPS 89C, EST. 84C

*NVIDIA 4Q REV. $39.3B, EST. $38.25B

*NVIDIA 4Q ADJ GROSS MARGIN 73.5%, EST. 73.5%

*NVIDIA 4Q DATA CENTER REVENUE $35.6B, EST. $34.09B

*NVIDIA DELIVERED $11B OF BLACKWELL ARCHITECTURE REV. IN 4Q