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Official and free Telegram channel of @CryptoCapo_ from Twitter. This is the only TG that I have. Beware of scammers. I will never DM you first.
To clarify some things:
- Am I wrong since the June 22, 2025 local bottom?
Yes, no doubt. I expected a DCB. Instead BTC printed a new ATH and alts squeezed. Happens.
- Am I liquidated?
No, low leverage. Also remember I didn't sell all my altcoins while taking profits in May, just 50% [/channel/CryptoCapoTG/1242]. Then I shorted more alts and went net short.
I’m now selling more spot alts to add margin.
- Is the idea invalidated?
Not yet. Capitulation event / black swan is still likely, even if right now it might sound crazy. Timing bad ≠ thesis dead.
- Am I worried?
Not really.
I’ve been right in public (recently, March/April local bottom; May local top. In the past: 2017 bull run, 2018 bear market, 2019 local top, 2020 covid crash, 2021 bull market, 2022 bear market including LUNA and FTX collapses...) and wrong in public (2020 after covid crash and 2023 bull market when I was bearish, part of 2024, now...).
That’s part of trading. Adapt and manage size.
– What actually worries me?
People copy trades me or any other analyst without context, no risk plan, high leverage. I manage leverage carefully (small size, margin adds, invalidation before liquidation). That doesn’t mean you should use leverage. I keep saying: avoid leverage if you don’t fully understand the risks.
Stay safe.
$BNB
Price is at range high resistance.
Mid-range support at $350-400.
Prices going higher than expected but buying here is a mistake imo.
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More and more people on CT are now talking about patience. Just a few years ago, it was barely mentioned, even when its importance stood out the most. Seeing it gain attention now is a good sign.
But mentioning it isn’t enough.
Patience must be practiced. And to do that, you need more than just time and concepts.
You need emotional and mental balance, as Warren Buffett wisely said.
That balance only comes through inner work.
That’s where the real secret lies — the secret to happiness, health, wealth, meaningful relationships...
What does “inner work” mean?
It means working harder on yourself than on your job. It means silencing external noise so you can look inward and face your shadows. It means reconnecting with your essence, your spirit, and what cannot be seen with your physical eyes.
Through this, you find a sense of purpose. And when you truly have purpose, your whole perspective shifts.
You start enjoying the journey, even your mistakes, because you love what you do.
And from there, patience comes naturally.
GM!
As you know, I’ve been bearish since May 9th [https://x.com/CryptoCapo_/status/1920812200735719459] and I’ve been building short positions since then. I'm now fully net short and still adding, especially on altcoins.
Most altcoins are 30%-50% down from the May local top, which was called perfectly. The only asset holding up well is $BTC, mainly due to the institutional strategic reserves being accumulated. This creates constant buying pressure.
However, all of this buying pressure and the price is still at 108k? Something feels off... There must be bigger whales distributing here. A few days ago, several Satoshi-era (2009-2011) wallets got activated after 14 years, for a total of 80,009 $BTC ($8.69B):
[https://x.com/lookonchain/status/1941152575514198214].
We still don’t know if that supply will be sold, but it gives you a hint about what big players might be doing above $100k. And it all points to distribution.
As I've said before, $100k is a key level. A clean break below it would take the price to the next support level which is $92k-93k. A clean break below that, and the main target of $60k-70k would be reached and altcoins would drop a further 50%-80% in a capitulation event.
What could trigger such a strong bearish move? Well, charts always speak first and then the news follows. But there are several narratives, and in my opinion, the most likely one is related to the China–Taiwan conflict:
The China–Taiwan situation has been quietly escalating for months, and it's now reaching a critical point, even if it’s not getting much mainstream attention.
A partial or temporary blockade of Taiwan would likely have severe consequences for global markets. Taiwan is the backbone of the global semiconductor supply chain, producing over 60% of all chips and more than 90% of the most advanced ones. Even a short disruption could trigger panic in tech, energy, and shipping sectors. Supply chains would collapse, shipping routes through the Taiwan Strait would be blocked, and inflation could spike again. Asian markets would take the biggest hit, but global equities would follow. Risk-off sentiment would dominate, and crypto wouldn’t be immune. If tensions escalate further, this could be the event that triggers the full bearish move.
Stay safe.
I keep adding to shorts.
https://x.com/CryptoCapo_/status/1939739204948214191
DCB probably over. Expecting bearish continuation soon.
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Every bounce looks like a dead-cat move to fade.
Alts are already down hard (30%-50%) from the May local top, but I don’t think the real capitulation has started yet.
Show me the charts and I’ll tell you the news...
And they don’t look good.
This isn’t over. And sadly, it's likely to get worse before it gets better.
We can't change what's happening, only adapt to it.
If it looks like a bull trap, and feels like a bull trap, then...
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In my opinion, this is far from over.
Yesterday was just the test dump, and this looks like a dead cat bounce.
Lower.
GM
Market update:
Bitcoin continues to show remarkable strength since June 22nd (Middle East ceasefire). Some alts are catching up, but most remain in clear downtrends and forming lower highs. Traditional markets are showing signs of weakness and a potential top formation.
Euphoria around BTC is evident, and a reversal remains just a matter of time in my opinion.
Currently, all my short positions are in a loss. Luckily, I use very low leverage, so to the disappointment of many, I'm not liquidated yet. And even if I were, these positions are far from representing my entire net worth. They're strategic positions supporting my thesis and hedging against a potential black swan event, which remains likely even if the idea sounds crazy right now.
Staying calm despite adversity. Not everything plays out immediately. Have a good week!
Despite $BTC reaching a new ATH, altcoins remain at a clear resistance.
Something feels very off. I don't trust this move.
Important Reminder
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You can find me only on:
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Stay safe and always verify information carefully.
Hope you all had a good weekend!
This week I'm going to be more active and share some interesting ideas.
Many altcoins have already retraced most of the dead cat bounce. Much lower prices are likely.
Stay safe.
$SOL update
-First chart: April's bottom at $100
-Second chart: May's top at $170-200
-Third chart: current situation, after dropping 20% from the resistance zone.
After the current DCB, it's now testing another important resistance, which was support before (S/R flip). Main target remains $60-80.
#USOIL (WTI CRUDE OIL)
One of the few assets I’m bullish on in the coming days.
Expecting trouble in the Strait of Hormuz.
#MEMECOINS
As previously mentioned, memecoins would likely be the most affected by the bearish scenario, with potential drops of around 60%–80%. The rest of the altcoins would likely see drops around 50%–70%.
In fact, since turning bearish in May, many altcoins have already dropped significantly, even with $BTC still trading at similar levels. Once $BTC breaks below $100k, the real bearish acceleration will begin.
Here are a few clear examples.
$ETH
Looks like a distribution range, so I've been building a short position for weeks.
For those asking what to expect in the potential event of a capitulation / black swan scenario:
🔸 $BTC could drop to the main support at $60k–70k (35%–45% from the current price of $109,300)
🔸 $ETH could fall around 45%–55%, potentially reaching the $1,000–1,200 zone
🔸 Altcoins: average drop of 50%–70%
🔸 Memecoins would be hit hardest, with average drawdowns of 60%–80%
I remain net short.
DCB probably over. Expecting bearish continuation soon.
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We haven’t seen anything yet...
If altcoins are already down significantly from the local top while $BTC is still above $100k, imagine what happens if it drops to $93k (first support) and later to the main support at $60k–70k.