TRUMP AND MEXICO’S SHEINBAUM TO DISCUSS TARIFFS TODAY
President Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum are set to discuss trade and tariffs by phone on Thursday, ahead of Friday’s tariff deadline. Sheinbaum delayed her news conference to prepare for the call.
Mexican officials have been in Washington negotiating, with Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard saying Mexico has done its part and now it’s up to the U.S. to decide on tariffs. Trump warned earlier that tariffs could rise to 30% if Mexico doesn’t do more to combat drug cartels.
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$MSFT - *MICROSOFT JUMPS 8.2% TO SURPASS $4 TRILLION IN MARKET VALUE
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$TSLA - TESLA: AI AND ENERGY IN FOCUS AMID AUTO CHALLENGES
Wolfe Research says Tesla's investment story is shifting toward AI and autonomy, with upcoming catalysts like Full Self-Driving (FSD) expansion, robotaxis, and the Optimus robot entering scaled production by 2026.
Despite long-term potential, near-term fundamentals are weak. Wolfe's 2025–26 EPS estimates ($1.62 and $1.67) are below consensus, citing risk to Model 3/Y demand as U.S. tax credits expire in 2025.
On the bright side, Tesla’s Energy segment is expected to double revenue by 2026 ($18B), helping offset cash burn as AI investment grows.
Bottom line: Tesla trades more on future tech than current numbers.
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*SOUTH AFRICA CUTS BENCHMARK RATE BY 25BPS TO 7%; EST. 7.00%
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🚨CHINA PAUSES US-BOUND COMPANY INVESTMENT AMID TRADE WAR
China has stopped approving outbound investments for companies looking to set up or expand operations in the U.S., amid trade negotiations between the world's two largest economies, Nikkei Asia has learned.
Local Chinese governments and the state economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, have ceased such approvals since April, according to people familiar with the matter.
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*US JUNE CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US JUNE CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 2.8% Y/Y; EST. +2.7%
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US JOBLESS CLAIMS 218,000 IN JULY 26 WEEK; EST. 224K
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$RBLX - ROBLOX SHARES EXTEND GAIN TO MORE THAN 20%
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*GERMANY PRELIM JULY CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.2%
*GERMANY PRELIM JULY CONSUMER PRICES RISE 2% Y/Y; EST. +1.9%
*GERMANY PRELIM JULY HARMONIZED CPI RISES 0.4% M/M; EST. +0.4%
*GERMANY PRELIM JULY HARMONIZED CPI RISES 1.8% Y/Y; EST. +1.9%
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🚨 BESSENT ON FED: EXPECT ANNOUNCEMENT BY END OF YEAR
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BESSENT ON FED: WE ARE PUTTING TOGETHER VERY GOOD LIST OF FED CANDIDATES
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$F - BESSENT: ALUMINUM TARIFFS HIT FORD HARDER
BESSENT: WILL BE NEGOTIATING WITH CANADA ON THOSE
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BESSENT: STILL FEW TECHNICAL DETAILS TO WORK OUT WITH CHINA
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BESSENT ON CHINA: WE HAVE MAKINGS OF A DEAL
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🚨 BESSENT: INDIA HAS NOT BEEN A GREAT GLOBAL ACTOR
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$NVDA - NVIDIA SHARES HIT RECORD HIGH, UP 1.4%
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CORE PCE INFLATION SLIGHTLY HIGHER, REDUCING CHANCES OF SEPTEMBER RATE CUT
The Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 0.3% in June and 2.8% year-over-year—slightly above expectations. Headline PCE also increased 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually, the highest since February.
This stronger inflation reading makes it less likely the Fed will cut interest rates in September, as officials want clearer signs that inflation is moving toward their 2% target. Investors now see only a 39% chance of a rate cut, down from earlier estimates.
The robust inflation report follows strong U.S. economic growth of 3% annualized in Q2, recovering from a dip caused by trade disruptions earlier this year.
Experts say this data supports the Fed’s recent decision to hold rates steady and suggests inflation remains stubborn.
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U.S. DOLLAR INDEX DXY HITS 100 FOR FIRST TIME SINCE MAY 29
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KALSHI TRADERS ARE NOW PRICING IN RISING ODDS OF ZERO CUTS IN 2025 — JUMPING TO 29%
“WSJ’s Timiraos: Core PCE inflation is beginning to look no better — and by some measures worse — than when the Fed started to cut last year.”
Powell stayed cautious at yesterday’s FOMC
https://t.co/FFxkIZrigw
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US JOBLESS CLAIMS +1K TO 218K IN JUL-26 WK; SURVEY 222K
US JUL-19 WEEK CONTINUING CLAIMS UNCHANGED AT 1,946,000
US JUL-19 WEEK JOBLESS CLAIMS UNREVISED AT 217K
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*US 2Q EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX RISES 0.9% Q/Q; EST. +0.8%
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*US JUNE PERSONAL SPENDING RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.4%
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VISA EXPANDS STABLECOIN SETTLEMENT SUPPORT
VISA INC - ADDS SUPPORT FOR TWO USD-BACKED STABLECOINS AND EURC
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BESSENT ON FED: THERE IS SCHISM IN FED BOARD
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BESSENT: NOT SURE WHAT THE CASE IS FOR NOT CUTTING RATES
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BESSENT: WE'RE SEEING A CAPEX BOOM
BESSENT: BOOM WILL ACCELERATE
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BESSENT ON CHINA: THIS IS THREE DIMENSIONAL CHESS
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BESSENT ON CHINA: WILL SPEAK TO TRUMP THURSDAY ABOUT AUG 12 DEADLINE WITH CHINA
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🚨BESSENT ON CHINA: CHINESE ARE TOUGH NEGOTIATORS
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BESSENT ON INDIA TRADE DEAL: I DON'T KNOW WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN
BESSENT ON INDIA TRADE DEAL: IT WILL BE UP TO INDIA
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