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⭕️ The Trade War cycle, Trump edition
It always starts the same: Trump gets tough on China, markets panic, and prices drop.
Then comes a hint of resolution, markets bounce, and the game resets.
Trump buys low on fear, sells high on relief and repeats the playbook.
Some cycles never die. They just rebrand as “policy.”
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JUST IN: Trump has accused China of an "economically hostile act" by refusing to buy US soybeans. He stated he is considering terminating business with China involving cooking oil and other trade aspects as retribution.
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📈 Turtle Soup Trading Strategy explained
The original Turtle Traders became famous for their breakout system, buying strength and selling weakness to ride long trends.
But every strategy has a weakness. When breakouts failed, they lost heavily.
Linda Bradford Raschke saw an opportunity in those failures and built her own version called Turtle Soup, a method that profits from false breakouts and price reversals.
🟡 How the idea works
Instead of chasing momentum, Turtle Soup looks for exhaustion.
When price breaks to a new high or low and quickly snaps back, it often traps trend followers.
Raschke designed this method to trade against those traps, entering at the point where momentum breaks down and price returns to its average.
🟡 Using the Donchian Channel
The Donchian channel tracks the highest and lowest prices over a set number of days, often 20.
It shows when price moves outside its normal range, giving clear signals for possible reversals.
Turtle Soup uses this channel to identify moments when a new breakout is likely to fail.
🟡 Buy setup
A long entry appears when price makes a new 20 day low that is at least four days apart from the previous one.
If the market then bounces back above that old low, it signals rejection of the breakdown.
A buy order is placed just above the previous low, with a stop slightly below the day’s low.
The goal is to capture the quick return to the mean rather than hold for a long trend.
🟡 Short setup
The short entry follows the same logic in reverse.
When price hits a new 20 day high and then falls back below the old high, it shows failed strength.
A short order is placed just below that old high, with a stop a few cents above the day’s top.
🟡 Managing trades
If the trade fails immediately, the same entry level can be reused once the signal appears again.
If it moves in your favor, a trailing stop can protect profits, often set at one unit of risk (1R).
This way, losses stay small while winners have room to grow.
🟡 When it works best
Turtle Soup performs well in range bound or choppy markets where trends struggle to hold.
It thrives on the emotional swings that make traders chase breakouts too late.
Instead of fighting the market, it waits for the crowd to overreact and steps in the opposite direction.
Not every breakout is a new trend.
Sometimes the best trades come from knowing when the story has gone too far and the price just wants to return home.
JUST IN: The Dow has rebounded from a 600-point drop and turned positive, after US Trade Representative Greer announced a scheduled meeting between President Trump and China's President Xi.
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JUST IN: Greer indicates that the imposition of November 1 tariffs hinges on China's response, adding that a tariff on China could take effect sooner, aligning with Trump's statements.
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JUST IN: Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at the National Association for Business Economics annual meeting at 12:20 PM ET, marking his first major public appearance since the September rate cut. He will address the economic outlook and monetary policy.
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JUST IN: The S&P 500 has deepened its daily losses to -1.5%, driven by investor reactions to recent bank earnings and escalating trade tensions.
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💵 How the Repo Market Keeps the Dollar Alive
Every night, trillions of dollars quietly move through the U.S. repo system. It’s the hidden engine of dollar liquidity — where banks, hedge funds, and asset managers exchange cash for Treasuries to keep global markets running smoothly.
🟡 What a Repo Is
A repo is simply a short-term loan backed by collateral.
Cash lenders like Vanguard or insurance funds provide dollars.
Borrowers such as hedge funds give U.S. Treasuries as collateral.
After a day or two, the borrower buys them back at a slightly higher price.
That small difference is the interest — the cost of liquidity.
🟡 The Core System: DTCC
Everything runs through the DTCC, the central clearinghouse.
It stands between both sides, checks every trade, matches data, and guarantees settlement.
By taking both contracts — one with the lender and one with the borrower — DTCC removes most counterparty risk.
🟡 Where It Clears: BNY Mellon
BNY Mellon is the only clearing bank for U.S. repos.
It manages accounts for both sides and moves assets back and forth.
Cash flows to the borrower, Treasuries flow to the lender.
When the deal ends, both return to their original owners.
BNY updates the balances in real time as prices move.
🟡 The Fed’s Role
All of this happens inside the Fed’s digital system — the Commercial Book-Entry System (CBES) — the official ledger that records ownership of Treasuries.
The Fed doesn’t trade, but without this infrastructure, the system would stop.
🟡 Why It Matters
The repo market is the bloodstream of the dollar.
It gives banks and funds the short-term liquidity they need to function.
When repo funding dries up, everything slows — credit, markets, even Treasury auctions.
You don’t see it on a chart, but this is where the real dollar system lives.
Find the gems before they blow!
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JUST IN: Stock market futures are extending gains after China confirmed "working level talks" with the US. S&P 500 futures have risen 160 points from their Friday low.
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JUST IN: Gold prices, when adjusted for US money supply, are breaking out of a 50+ year downtrend, according to this chart. This adjustment reveals that the 1970s peak was roughly four times higher than previously thought, suggesting the current phase still looks early in the bigger picture.
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JUST IN: US stocks are building on their advances, with the S&P 500 rising over 1.5% for the day and adding more than $850 billion in market capitalization. The index is set for its strongest daily performance since May 27.
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JUST IN: Broadcom's stock ($AVGO) has surged more than 13% after announcing a multi-billion dollar chip deal with OpenAI. Under the agreement, Broadcom will develop custom data center chips for OpenAI, supporting 10GW of compute capacity, resulting in a $200 billion increase in the company's market capitalization today.
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JUST IN: Bessent warns that the shutdown is starting to affect the economy.
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📈 75 years of S&P 500 pain and gain
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged 11% annual returns while enduring an average 14% drawdown each year.
The chart shows how often deep pullbacks still ended with strong yearly gains.
The lesson? Volatility doesn’t equal a permanent financial loss unless you sell.
Every blown account was built on the same foundation:
Impatience, ego, and denial.
You don’t fix that with more setups.
You fix it by facing the truth you’ve been avoiding.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump stated that Argentina should avoid any military cooperation with China.
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JUST IN: Global gold ETFs recorded net inflows of $2.1 billion last week, their seventh consecutive weekly gain, following a record $5.3 billion in the prior week. Year-to-date, these funds have attracted $68 billion in inflows, the highest for any year on record.
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JUST IN: Greer reports that a scheduled time has been set for a meeting between Trump and Xi.
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JUST IN: Binance will distribute $300 million to users liquidated during the October 10th market crash.
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🥈 Silver entering its comeback cycle
The Silver-to-S&P 500 ratio is showing early signs of a reversal — suggesting silver could start outperforming U.S. equities again.
🟡 The last major uptrend ran from 2003 to 2011, when silver crushed stocks
🟡 The ratio is now rebounding from levels where silver was deeply undervalued
🟡 Signals growing rotation from financial assets into hard assets
If history rhymes, the next few years might favor metal over multiple expansion.
JUST IN: Key U.S. economic indicators face delays or cancellations due to the ongoing government shutdown.
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) release is not expected.
• Producer Price Index (PPI) release is not expected.
• Jobless Claims data is not expected to be published.
• Retail Sales figures are unlikely to be released.
• Import/Export Price Index is at risk of delay.
• Energy reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration have uncertain release status.
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🏆 Gold Demand at Record Levels
The largest gold ETF, $GLD, saw an explosive surge in trading — one of the biggest single-day spikes in years. Such volumes were last seen more than a decade ago, highlighting a growing shift of capital into defensive assets.
🟡 $12.5B daily volume — 2nd highest on record
🟡 Previous peak: 2013
🟡 Outperformed most top tech stocks by trading activity
Money is moving from speculation to preservation. Gold is in demand, and the signal couldn’t be clearer.
Trading isn’t supposed to be exciting — it’s supposed to be profitable.
If you’re constantly looking for action, you’ll find yourself overtrading.
Take that energy somewhere else and let your trading stay boring.
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📈 How Markets Actually Move: Liquidity 101
Price does not move because time passes. It moves when orders meet. Learn how market and limit orders, liquidity, and liquidations interact and the tape stops looking random.
🟡 Market and limit orders
Market order is the taker: it crosses the spread and consumes resting liquidity.
Limit order is the maker: it sits in the book and gets hit.
Stops and trigger orders are just delayed market orders. They fire on events and often add fuel to breakouts or fakeouts.
🟡 Footprint charts
Footprints display executed market buys and sells at each price. They are ideal for reading absorption and exhaustion.
Many sells at one level with no further drop implies bids are absorbing.
Use them on volume, delta, or range bars, not only on time charts.
TLDR: footprints show trades that happened, while heatmaps show resting orders that can disappear.
🟡 Liquidity: spread and depth
In crypto the spread in majors is often tiny, so depth matters most.
Shallow books mean more slippage and easier pushes through thin zones.
If price rips through the same area with less volume than before, orders were likely pulled.
Price seeks the path of least resistance: thin books.
🟡 Depth of market
DOM shows resting limits on both sides and the market orders hitting them.
Pull and stack columns reveal live adds and cancels, useful for spotting iceberg orders that keep refilling at one level.
Because crypto is fragmented, watch the DOM across several top exchanges for a truer picture.
🟡 Heatmaps
Good for visualizing where liquidity used to sit and how pulls affect price.
Important caveat: orders can be pulled. Heatmaps are not gospel for live intent.
If you want a heatmap view, Bookmap is a strong option for real-time order book visualization.
🟡 How liquidations move price
When a trader is liquidated, the position becomes the exchange’s risk and must be flattened.
On DEXs like Hyperliquid, liquidations hit the market immediately as market orders.
If there are not enough opposing limits, forced executions create cascades.
Watch for violent spikes into thin areas: these often present favorable entries when absorption appears.
🟡 A practical checklist
🟢Identify the driver: are stops about to trigger or are limits absorbing
🟢 Check depth across venues: is liquidity thin ahead
🟢 Read the footprint: is a move accelerating or exhausting
🟢 Confirm with DOM: are levels pulling or stacking
🟢 Plan entries around absorption after a sweep, not into thin air
Markets move when takers meet makers, not on the clock. Learn where liquidity sits, when it disappears, and how forced flow like stops and liquidations hits the book. Once you see that tape, you stop chasing candles and start trading intent.
🌍 When the Dollar Turns, the World Turns
The dollar has always been more than a currency. It’s the world’s risk switch and when it flips, everything else follows.
Every major dollar top in the past 50 years has marked a turning point in global markets. When the dollar rises, U.S. assets dominate. When it weakens, capital escapes abroad, lifting global and emerging markets.
Key shifts now:
🟡 U.S. equities are near record valuations relative to the rest of the world.
🟡 The dollar is losing momentum as deficits and debt make its strength unsustainable.
A weaker dollar may soon become the implicit policy choice to stabilize the system. If that happens, it won’t just be a currency move — it will mark the start of a major capital rotation.
The next bull market might not be in America, but in the markets that have been forgotten for a decade.
JUST IN: Kalshi is now forecasting a record-long government shutdown, with the probability rising steadily over the past month amid stalled negotiations in Washington. Such an extended shutdown would exceed historical precedents and heighten risks to the economy and markets.
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JUST IN: Scott Bessent commented on China trade and tariffs, stating that imposing 100% tariffs is not inevitable.
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💥 Crypto’s $550B Comeback
After one of the worst crashes in recent memory, the crypto market has already recovered more than $550B in value. What looked like panic turned into one of the fastest reversals in years.
🟡 Massive liquidation event erased $800B in market cap after Trump’s tariff announcement.
🟡 Within 36 hours, buyers stepped in aggressively, pushing total market cap back above $3.8T.
🟡 Liquidity gaps across exchanges amplified both the fall and the rebound.
🟡 The move exposed how tightly crypto is now tied to global macro news.
Volatility like this defines cycles. Those who survive it often end up owning the next one.