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📈We track everything that moves the markets: fast news, clear context, real narratives. 📩 Reach out: @strategy
JUST IN: Trump expressed confidence in achieving a favorable outcome in the ongoing negotiation, stating, "We're going to do well in that negotiation." He also noted that China is interested in discussing tariffs.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump announced that he will discuss numerous topics with China's President Xi Jinping in two weeks.
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⏫ The Longer You Hold, The Higher Your Investing Win Rate
Trying to time the market?
The data says you’re better off simply extending your holding period.
Warren Buffet wasn’t joking - patience pays off for S&P 500 investors.
🟡 Over just 1 day, your odds are close to 50/50, almost a coin flip for gains or losses.
🟡 Hold for 1 year, and your chances of making money jump far above the average.
🟡 Stretch that to 10 years: more than 90% of all periods end profitably.
🟡 Stick with it for 20 years? Historically, every single holding period finishes in the green.
Forget chasing the perfect entry. Investing success isn’t about luck - it’s about time in the market, not timing the market.
💰 Gold Miners Are Quietly Printing Cash
When everyone’s busy chasing tech stocks, gold miners are quietly stacking record profits. The market might be underestimating just how much cash these companies are churning out while gold prices hover near all-time highs.
🟡 Free cash flow of the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index surged 11x
🟡 Stock prices moved up, but not nearly enough to match the fundamentals
🟡 At current prices, miners are essentially “printing money”
The rally barely scratches the surface. The real gold rush might just be in the miners themselves.
Just For One Month Try This:
🟡 Only one strategy.
🟡 Take only carefully calculated risks.
🟡 Journal all trades fully.
🟡 Focus on 1 quality trade per day.
Trust me, Your whole trading will change.
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JUST IN: US natural gas prices have surged more than 12% today, setting up for their biggest daily gain since July 2022, amid rebounding energy costs fueled by heightened winter demand expectations.
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JUST IN: Trump stated that he could threaten China on additional matters beyond current issues, including airplanes.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump stated that China has been respectful of the US and is paying significant money through tariffs. He mentioned planning to meet Chinese President Xi in South Korea in a couple of weeks to work out a fair trade deal, adding that China could face a 155% tariff if no agreement is reached by November 1.
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JUST IN: The US federal deficit for FY2025 reached $1.8 trillion, based on CBO projections.
• Equals 6.0% of GDP, one of the highest levels excluding WWII, the 2008 Financial Crisis, and the 2020 Pandemic.
• Ranks as the fourth-largest budget shortfall on record, after a $3.1 trillion gap.
This substantial deficit could fuel worries about long-term fiscal health, potentially driving up Treasury yields as borrowing demand rises and weighing on investor confidence in US economic stability.
JUST IN: Kevin Hassett warns that if the government shutdown persists, the White House will consider implementing stronger measures.
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JUST IN: President Trump stated that India's Prime Minister Modi assured him that India will cease buying Russian oil. This comes after Trump imposed a 50% tariff on India on August 27 as punishment for those purchases, hinting at a possible US-India trade deal.
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🧠 Trading Psychology: 10 Lessons That Separate Winners from Losers
You can have the best strategy and perfect risk management, but without the right mindset you’ll still fail. Trading success comes down to consistency, discipline, and emotional control.
🟡 Stop searching for the Holy Grail
There’s no perfect system that always wins. Focus on building one that fits your own risk and goals.
🟡 Accept losing trades
Losses are part of the game. Trying to avoid them completely means you’ll miss real opportunities.
🟡 Ignore other people’s predictions
Trade what you see, not what others think. The market doesn’t care about opinions.
🟡 Know when to enter
Follow your signals and take trades only when the risk-to-reward makes sense.
🟡 Know when to exit
Plan your exits before you enter. Protect profits instead of hoping they grow forever.
🟡 Cut losers fast
When a trade fails, close it. Small losses are tuition, big ones are fatal.
🟡 Control your emotions
Trade the plan, not the fear, greed, or ego whispering in your head.
🟡 Stay positive
Focus on discipline and progress, not on past mistakes. Energy follows attention.
🟡 Overcome fear of real money
At some point, you must execute. If you’ve done your homework, trust your system and take the shot.
🟡 Think long term
Success comes to those who endure. Focus on the bigger goal, not the bumps along the way.
Trading is as much mental as it is technical. The system gives you an edge — but your psychology decides whether you keep it.
⚙️ China is a paradox
China is both modern and poor.
High-speed trains cut across futuristic cities and endless countryside, past homes where hundreds of millions still earn under $7 a day.
Its rise is unmatched, yet its society remains anxious. Decades of rapid growth can’t erase a century of hardship from its collective memory. Even as its middle class grows, confidence lags behind.
🟡 A system of contradictions
The government follows Marxist-Leninist doctrine, yet the economy thrives on state-led capitalism and fierce competition.
Western critics claim China only advances through IP theft and subsidies, but its industries tell another story — dominance in EVs, renewables, drones, robotics, biotech, and now AI.
Still, cracks show. The property market remains weak, local debt is heavy, and youth unemployment data quietly disappeared. China is digesting its boom years and facing the cost of overbuilding and overborrowing.
🟡 Both inefficient and unbeatable
Western analysts say China’s economy is “too inefficient” because of state control and “too competitive” because its surviving companies are battle-hardened.
Its internet sits behind the Great Firewall, yet its AI labs release world-class open models faster than anyone else.
Every few years, someone predicts China will implode or democratize. Decades later, neither has happened. The system keeps adapting, often succeeding where others expect failure.
🟡 A civilization of contradictions
It’s 5,000 years old with a 76-year-old communist government.
It’s both spiritual and materialistic, both traditional and technocratic.
The same society that prizes family and order also fuels one of the most cutthroat, innovative economies on Earth.
Even its biggest challenge — demographics — is a product of success. Rapid industrialization, urbanization, and education have reduced birth rates faster than any policy ever could.
🟡 Why it matters
China’s paradoxes make it impossible to define with one lens.
It’s both competitor and teacher, fragile and unstoppable, repressive and visionary.
Its contradictions are not signs of weakness but sources of resilience.
As Dan Wang said:
“The best hedge against rising tensions between the two superpowers is mutual curiosity”
JUST IN: Bessent might request US defense companies to conduct fewer share buybacks.
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JUST IN: Scott Bessent claims he has reviewed data showing that the shutdown is inflicting $15 billion in daily damage to the economy.
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JUST IN: OpenAI plans to announce a new browser called ChatGPT Atlas.
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JUST IN: A White House official confirms there are no plans for a meeting between Trump and Putin in the immediate future.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump stated that an end to Hamas will be fast, furious, and brutal if not otherwise achieved.
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❕ Hold Onto Your Helmets - Markets Are In Trader Territory
The current equities bull market is still young compared to historical cycles, but long-term investment prospects don’t look enticing just yet. The market could be due for a deeper pullback, and major events like a looming Fed policy shift, China’s foggy outlook, and ongoing government shutdowns are keeping long-term positions risky.
🟡 Gold and precious metals: parabolic surge based on fundamentals, but prone to sudden, massive drawdowns. These are now considered “trader territory”, expect volatility and big swings.
🟡 Equities: Rally is fueled by short-term opportunity, not by sustainable long-term value. Room for more upside, but caution is key.
🟡 Crypto: Shifted into investor territory after the recent leveraged wipe-out. With Bitcoin near historic highs and broad crypto strength, long-term conviction is building again.
🟡 Macro: The next major liquidity event may hit in 2026. A dovish Trump Fed is anticipated, possibly lifting all asset classes higher.
Fundamentals and sentiment are diverging. Trade tactically; investing passively might lead you straight into a drawdown. The fog will lift, but be ready for sudden weather changes.
🚨 Black Monday: 38 years since the largest one-day market crash
Today marks 38 years since Black Monday, the biggest one-day stock market crash in history. On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 508 points, a massive 22.6% drop, while the S&P 500 declined by 20.5%. In just a few hours, over $500 billion in U.S. market value vanished, triggering a global panic and wiping out roughly $1.7 trillion worldwide.
🟡 What led to Black Monday?
This crash didn’t come without warning. After the 1982 recession, the stock market had been rapidly rising - the Dow had tripled, and in the seven months before the crash, surged another 44%. But by late 1987, valuations were extremely high, trade deficits were growing, inflation was rising, and the U.S. dollar was weakening. The Federal Reserve was raising interest rates, and Treasury Secretary James Baker hinted at devaluing the dollar, further eroding investor confidence. Markets had already fallen almost 10% in the days leading up to the crash.
🟡 The role of technology
One crucial factor was the rise of automated program trading, especially a strategy called portfolio insurance. Designed to limit losses by automatically selling futures as markets declined, it instead created a feedback loop of selling panic. This cascade overwhelmed the New York Stock Exchange’s systems, causing trading halts and outages. Panic spread rapidly, especially in the final hour and a half of trading.
🟡 The Federal Reserve’s response and recovery
The Federal Reserve acted swiftly. Chair Alan Greenspan promised liquidity support, encouraged banks to maintain lending, lowered interest rates slightly, and helped rescue critical financial firms. These quick actions stabilized markets and restored confidence. Remarkably, within two trading days, the Dow had regained more than half its losses, and by mid-1989, markets reached new highs fueled by strong economic fundamentals.
🟡 The lasting legacy
Black Monday changed market structure, the crash led to the introduction of circuit breakers to pause trading during rapid declines. It established investor expectations that the Federal Reserve would intervene during crises, what became known as the “Greenspan put.” Though a dark day in Wall Street history, it proved that resolute policy and solid economic foundations can convert panic into recovery.
Lessons from Black Monday remain highly relevant to today's markets with heightened risks and technological impacts influencing trading dynamics.
JUST IN: Trump has announced plans to visit China sometime fairly early next year.
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JUST IN: Trump warns that there will be a big price to pay if no deal is reached to end the war in Ukraine.
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❕ Hedge funds are sitting on $1.85T in hidden Treasuries
The Fed just discovered that hedge funds in the Cayman Islands hold roughly $1.85 trillion worth of U.S. Treasuries — over four times more than official data suggested.
🟡 The gap comes from the basis trade, where funds buy Treasuries and short futures to profit from tiny price gaps.
🟡 They borrow heavily via the repo market, using those Treasuries as collateral.
🟡 As bonds get rehypothecated (reused multiple times), tracking true ownership becomes nearly impossible.
This hidden leverage means the Treasury market might be far riskier than it looks. If these trades unwind at once, liquidity could vanish and the Fed would be flying blind into the next shock.
JUST IN: Kevin Hassett expects that Scott Bessent's meetings on China will resolve misunderstandings, according to CNBC.
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JUST IN: Hassett believes the government shutdown is likely to end sometime this week, according to CNBC.
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JUST IN: President Trump is considering deploying National Guard troops to San Francisco as part of his crime crackdown initiative.
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JUST IN: The chief of India's central bank has stated that the country intends to promote CBDC while discouraging cryptocurrencies and stablecoins.
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JUST IN: The Global Times describes Donald Trump's threat targeting China's cooking oil as ineffective.
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JUST IN: Bessent states that the stock market will not impact negotiations with China.
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JUST IN: Nasdaq 100 futures have climbed more than +1%, with investors downplaying trade frictions between the US and China.
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