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Trade Watcher

You keep blowing accounts because you keep tilting.

No profitable system will ever blow your account, it’s always your self-destructive behavior when something triggers tilt.

Your number one goal in trading is to avoid tilting as much as possible.


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📉 How to Unf*ck Your Trading

Every trader knows the feeling — you start with a plan, then emotion takes over. You overtrade, chase entries, check PnL every five minutes, and somehow end up repeating the same mistakes. The truth is, most trading problems come from behavior, not charts. Here’s how to fix the most common ones.

➡️ Overtrading
The more you trade, the more noise you create. Pick one asset and master its rhythm. Focus on understanding how it moves instead of trying to catch every wave across the market. Depth beats breadth.

➡️ Impatience
You don’t need more trades, you need more data. Track setups, results, and patterns over time. When you shift your focus from “profit now” to “learn forever,” patience becomes easier.

➡️ Lack of Discipline
Rules mean nothing without accountability. Create structure that forces you to check yourself — a trading partner, a private journal, or even public reporting. Discipline grows when your actions are visible to someone, even if it’s just you reviewing your own stats.

➡️ FOMO
The fastest way to lose focus is to scroll through other people’s wins. Social media feeds on envy and false urgency. Mute the noise. Real opportunities don’t need hype to exist.

➡️ Indecision
Unclear setups lead to hesitation. Define exactly what your entry, invalidation, and exit look like before the trade. Clarity removes doubt and keeps you calm under pressure.

➡️ Hesitation
When you hesitate, it’s usually because you don’t trust your data. Review your past trades and build conviction through numbers, not emotion. Confidence grows when your strategy is backed by evidence.

➡️ No Structure
Trading is not random clicking. End every session with a report card — what went well, what didn’t, what you’ll improve tomorrow. A five-minute review compounds faster than any signal.

➡️ Poor Sizing
Emotional swings often come from oversized positions. If you can’t sleep at night, your size is wrong. Turn off the PnL display in dollars and think only in terms of process and execution.

Trading mastery starts when you stop trying to outsmart the market and start managing yourself. The edge isn’t in the chart — it’s in your behavior.


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JUST IN: A Trump pharmaceutical event was interrupted after an attendee fell down.

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JUST IN: Kalshi has partnered with Google Finance to incorporate prediction markets into the platform.

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JUST IN: Losses in the US stock market are accelerating, with the Nasdaq 100 now down nearly 2% on the day.

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📉 The Market That Forgot How to Feel

Why record earnings barely move stocks anymore

Corporate America just had one of its best earnings seasons in years. About 70% of S&P 500 companies have reported results, and nearly two-thirds beat expectations by wide margins. Profits rose 8%, margins expanded, and balance sheets look strong.

But the market barely reacted. The average stock that beat earnings outperformed the index by just 0.3% the next day, far below the usual response.

🟡 Investors Are Numb
The S&P 500 trades around 22.8 times forward earnings, one of the most expensive levels in history. At these valuations, good news no longer excites anyone. Investors already expect strong results, so even record profits feel routine. The market is bored with excellence.

🟡 Michael Burry Steps In
While traders yawn, Michael Burry is once again betting against the crowd. His fund Scion Asset Management filed early, revealing put options on Palantir worth $912 million in notional value and another $187 million against Nvidia. On paper it looked huge, but these are options, not cash. He likely spent only a few million to buy downside protection.

Financial media ran wild with headlines about “Burry shorting AI,” even though 13F filings show positions from weeks ago. Burry mocked the coverage himself, posting that journalists were missing the point.

🟡 A Market Without Emotion
For years Burry has called tops that never came. He shorted Tesla before it soared, called crashes that didn’t happen, and has mostly been fighting a one-way bull market. But his timing aside, his warning fits the moment.

Investors are no longer reacting to growth or profits. The bar is too high, the market too priced in, and excitement has turned to indifference.

Wall Street hasn’t lost its mind — it has lost its curiosity. The show is still on, but the crowd has stopped clapping.


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JUST IN: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has released a statement.

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JUST IN: Donald Trump stated that they will observe Mamdani's performance in New York and provide assistance to him.

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JUST IN: Oil prices are continuing their decline toward $59 per barrel, driven by President Trump's renewed push for $2.00 per gallon gasoline.

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📝 Core Lessons from The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel

This book isn’t a crash-course in stock picking or rich-person tricks. It’s about how we think and behave with money and why that matters more than how smart we are. Here are the key ideas every trader, investor or everyday saver should keep in mind.

➡️ Behavior Beats IQ

Success with money has less to do with fancy formulas and much more to do with habits, mindset and consistency. Being really smart doesn’t guarantee you’ll make smart money decisions. Your behaviour does.

“Doing well with money has little to do with how smart you are and a lot to do with how you behave.”

-Morgan Housel

➡️ Luck & Risk Always Play a Role

When you see someone doing extremely well (or badly) financially, don’t assume it’s all skill. Luck and unexpected risk matter a lot. Recognise that many outcomes are shaped by forces outside your immediate control.

This means: don’t equate “big success = great skill” without considering the hidden side.


➡️ Know Enough When It’s Enough

One of the hardest skills: deciding what “enough” means for you. Constantly chasing “just one more trade”, “just one more moonshot” can put you in danger. Housel argues that comparing yourself to others, or always raising the goal-post, is a sure way to take reckless risks.

If you have what you need — protect it.


➡️ Time is the Secret Engine (Not Just Big Gains)

Big returns are nice. But time + consistency + patience beat most flashy moves. Compounding works when you stay in the game long enough. Avoid the “all or nothing” mindset.

In investing and trading: surviving wins first. Profiting comes second.


➡️ Play Your Own Game

Your financial journey is yours. Others may have different goals, risk tolerance, timelines. Don’t copy someone else’s strategy without checking if it matches your life.

This especially applies in volatile fields like crypto/trading where others might take huge risks that you shouldn’t.


➡️ Wealth Isn’t Just What You See

Too often people equate flashy stuff (big car, big house) with “I’m wealthy”. But Housel makes a sharp point: true wealth is what you haven’t spent, the freedom you have, the options you keep.

In trading context: keeping risk low, avoiding ruin, not swinging for home runs every time.


➡️ Guard Against Ruin & Build Margin

You don’t just want gains. You want to avoid losses that ruin you. This means knowing your limits, avoiding extreme leverage or bets beyond your control, and having a margin for error.

In practice: If one blow-up can destroy your portfolio, you’re playing too risky.


➡️ Focus on What You Control

You can’t control the market, or sudden headwinds. But you can control your savings rate, your expenses, how you respond under stress, how you stick to a plan. Housel emphasises those as the real levers.

In trading: control your psychology, risk, money management. The rest you accept



➡️ TL;DR – The Takeaway

If you absorb one thing: Money isn’t only math, it’s psychology.

Being disciplined, patient, avoiding big mistakes, defining your own game and managing behavior will get you farther than chasing big trade setups alone.

The mind-game matters as much as the chart-game. Stay humble. Stay in the game. And make your money work for you, not vice-versa.

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$TWT Long
Entry: market
Stop: 1.065
Target: 1.8

Crypto looks rough overall, but this setup stands out and is worth a try. Given the sentiment, taking it with reduced risk.

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'The Big Short' Bet Against Palantir & NVIDIA

Michael Burry's Scion Asset Management's latest 13F disclosure shows an extreme bearish concentration. The hedge fund has concentrated 80% of its $1.38B portfolio into put options on Palantir and Nvidia.

🟡 Portfolio Breakdown:
Total notional value: $1.38 billion (↑139% from Q2's $578M)

🟡 $PLTR Puts:
• $912 million (66% of portfolio)
• 5 million put contracts

🟡 $NVDA Puts:
• $187 million (13.5% of portfolio)
• 1 million put contracts

🟡 Combined: $1.1B (~80%) betting both stocks fall.

Both companies are positioned to benefit from current administration priorities. Yet Burry's thesis appears to be: valuations are so extreme that even favorable policies can't justify current prices.


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JUST IN: Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu states that the United States is planning to conduct underground nuclear tests.

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JUST IN: Trump stated that he does not expect Democrats to act soon on the government shutdown and believes it will not be resolved anytime soon.

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JUST IN: The FAA has announced flight reductions at 40 major airports due to the ongoing government shutdown, with impacted locations including Anchorage, Atlanta, Boston, Baltimore, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Dallas Love, and Washington Reagan National.

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JUST IN: NVIDIA has suffered its sharpest three-day market value decline since the January DeepSeek selloff, losing roughly $440 billion since Monday. The stock is down almost 9% this week but remains up about 41% for the year.

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JUST IN: Fed's Hammack warns that the AI boom may parallel the massive infrastructure expansion seen during the internet build-out era.

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JUST IN: Senior officials from the Trump administration have announced two deals with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, which include lower prices for obesity drugs.

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💵 What’s Really Happening With US Liquidity

There’s a lot of confusion about whether the US is facing another banking or dollar funding crisis. The answer is no. The recent stress in money markets comes from a technical liquidity squeeze, not a systemic problem.

🟡 The Treasury’s Account at the Fed
The Treasury General Account (TGA) is basically the government’s bank account at the Federal Reserve. When the government collects taxes or sells new bonds, that money moves from private banks into the TGA. This temporarily drains liquidity from markets because the cash sits idle at the Fed.

Since the debt ceiling was raised in June, the Treasury has rebuilt this account to around 1 trillion dollars, overshooting its target of 850 billion. That extra 150 billion removed from circulation means fewer reserves for banks.

🟡 What Liquidity Tightening Looks Like
When reserves fall, short-term lending markets tighten. The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), which shows how much banks pay to borrow cash overnight, rose slightly. This is normal and far smaller than the 2019 “repo crisis.”

🟡 The Fed’s Repo Facility Is Doing Its Job
Some banks borrowed 50 billion dollars through the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility on October 31. This is just an overnight loan program that refreshes daily. It’s not QE and not cumulative. It simply ensures banks have access to short-term cash when reserves get tight.

🟡 Why This Happened at Month-End
Two things added pressure. The government slowed spending during the shutdown, keeping more cash in the TGA. At the same time, banks moved funds into the Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility to clean up their balance sheets before month-end. Both drained liquidity temporarily.

🟡 What’s Next
These effects are already fading as repo usage and SOFR levels fall. If the TGA remains high, brief squeezes could return at the end of November and December. The Fed is ending quantitative tightening on December 1, which should ease reserve pressure.

This isn’t a crisis, just normal plumbing stress. Liquidity is tighter, but the system is working and the Fed’s tools are handling it as designed.


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🧱 The Longest Government Shutdown in U.S. History

The current U.S. government shutdown has now set a record — lasting longer than the 35-day closure under Trump in 2019.

🟡 All non-essential federal services remain paused
🟡 Hundreds of thousands of workers are still without pay
🟡 Markets have stayed relatively calm so far, but prolonged gridlock risks hitting consumer spending and data releases

Washington has officially entered uncharted territory. Each extra day without a deal raises both political and economic costs.


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It always starts the same way.

One impulsive trade.

Just one click to “make it back.”

Then it turns into two.

And before you even realize it, you’re no longer following a system.

You watch yourself breaking rules you swore you’d never break again.

You move stops.

You double down.

You start fighting the market as if it owes you an apology.

That’s the meltdown.

Not on the chart, but in your mind.

And when it’s over, you sit there staring at the balance, trying to understand what happened.

It wasn’t the setup that failed.

It wasn’t the market that betrayed you.

It was your own state of mind hijacked by emotion, disguised as logic.

Every trader has lived that moment.

But only a few learn from it.


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JUST IN: DoorDash stock plunged more than 20% following weaker-than-expected Q3 2025 earnings results.

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JUST IN: Donald Trump may be developing a plan with China and Russia to denuclearize.

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JUST IN: Apple is finalizing a deal to integrate Google's Gemini AI model into Siri features starting in 2026, paying Google roughly $1B annually.

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JUST IN: Leavitt states that Trump will give a major speech on the economy at 1 PM EST.

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JUST IN: Supreme Court justices expressed skepticism about the legality of President Trump's tariffs, according to CNBC. Oral arguments in the case began at 10 AM ET, with Trump calling it a "life or death" matter for the US.

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JUST IN: The U.S. Supreme Court has begun hearing arguments on Donald Trump's proposed tariffs.

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JUST IN: The Russian Defence Minister has stated that the U.S. is increasing its stockpile of strategic weapons.

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JUST IN: Trump stated that the government shutdown played a major role in the election.

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