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📈We track everything that moves the markets: fast news, clear context, real narratives. 📩 Reach out: @strategy
JUST IN: President Trump stated that India's Prime Minister Modi assured him that India will cease buying Russian oil. This comes after Trump imposed a 50% tariff on India on August 27 as punishment for those purchases, hinting at a possible US-India trade deal.
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🧠 Trading Psychology: 10 Lessons That Separate Winners from Losers
You can have the best strategy and perfect risk management, but without the right mindset you’ll still fail. Trading success comes down to consistency, discipline, and emotional control.
🟡 Stop searching for the Holy Grail
There’s no perfect system that always wins. Focus on building one that fits your own risk and goals.
🟡 Accept losing trades
Losses are part of the game. Trying to avoid them completely means you’ll miss real opportunities.
🟡 Ignore other people’s predictions
Trade what you see, not what others think. The market doesn’t care about opinions.
🟡 Know when to enter
Follow your signals and take trades only when the risk-to-reward makes sense.
🟡 Know when to exit
Plan your exits before you enter. Protect profits instead of hoping they grow forever.
🟡 Cut losers fast
When a trade fails, close it. Small losses are tuition, big ones are fatal.
🟡 Control your emotions
Trade the plan, not the fear, greed, or ego whispering in your head.
🟡 Stay positive
Focus on discipline and progress, not on past mistakes. Energy follows attention.
🟡 Overcome fear of real money
At some point, you must execute. If you’ve done your homework, trust your system and take the shot.
🟡 Think long term
Success comes to those who endure. Focus on the bigger goal, not the bumps along the way.
Trading is as much mental as it is technical. The system gives you an edge — but your psychology decides whether you keep it.
⚙️ China is a paradox
China is both modern and poor.
High-speed trains cut across futuristic cities and endless countryside, past homes where hundreds of millions still earn under $7 a day.
Its rise is unmatched, yet its society remains anxious. Decades of rapid growth can’t erase a century of hardship from its collective memory. Even as its middle class grows, confidence lags behind.
🟡 A system of contradictions
The government follows Marxist-Leninist doctrine, yet the economy thrives on state-led capitalism and fierce competition.
Western critics claim China only advances through IP theft and subsidies, but its industries tell another story — dominance in EVs, renewables, drones, robotics, biotech, and now AI.
Still, cracks show. The property market remains weak, local debt is heavy, and youth unemployment data quietly disappeared. China is digesting its boom years and facing the cost of overbuilding and overborrowing.
🟡 Both inefficient and unbeatable
Western analysts say China’s economy is “too inefficient” because of state control and “too competitive” because its surviving companies are battle-hardened.
Its internet sits behind the Great Firewall, yet its AI labs release world-class open models faster than anyone else.
Every few years, someone predicts China will implode or democratize. Decades later, neither has happened. The system keeps adapting, often succeeding where others expect failure.
🟡 A civilization of contradictions
It’s 5,000 years old with a 76-year-old communist government.
It’s both spiritual and materialistic, both traditional and technocratic.
The same society that prizes family and order also fuels one of the most cutthroat, innovative economies on Earth.
Even its biggest challenge — demographics — is a product of success. Rapid industrialization, urbanization, and education have reduced birth rates faster than any policy ever could.
🟡 Why it matters
China’s paradoxes make it impossible to define with one lens.
It’s both competitor and teacher, fragile and unstoppable, repressive and visionary.
Its contradictions are not signs of weakness but sources of resilience.
As Dan Wang said:
“The best hedge against rising tensions between the two superpowers is mutual curiosity”
JUST IN: Bessent might request US defense companies to conduct fewer share buybacks.
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JUST IN: Scott Bessent claims he has reviewed data showing that the shutdown is inflicting $15 billion in daily damage to the economy.
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⭕️ The Trade War cycle, Trump edition
It always starts the same: Trump gets tough on China, markets panic, and prices drop.
Then comes a hint of resolution, markets bounce, and the game resets.
Trump buys low on fear, sells high on relief and repeats the playbook.
Some cycles never die. They just rebrand as “policy.”
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JUST IN: Trump has accused China of an "economically hostile act" by refusing to buy US soybeans. He stated he is considering terminating business with China involving cooking oil and other trade aspects as retribution.
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📈 Turtle Soup Trading Strategy explained
The original Turtle Traders became famous for their breakout system, buying strength and selling weakness to ride long trends.
But every strategy has a weakness. When breakouts failed, they lost heavily.
Linda Bradford Raschke saw an opportunity in those failures and built her own version called Turtle Soup, a method that profits from false breakouts and price reversals.
🟡 How the idea works
Instead of chasing momentum, Turtle Soup looks for exhaustion.
When price breaks to a new high or low and quickly snaps back, it often traps trend followers.
Raschke designed this method to trade against those traps, entering at the point where momentum breaks down and price returns to its average.
🟡 Using the Donchian Channel
The Donchian channel tracks the highest and lowest prices over a set number of days, often 20.
It shows when price moves outside its normal range, giving clear signals for possible reversals.
Turtle Soup uses this channel to identify moments when a new breakout is likely to fail.
🟡 Buy setup
A long entry appears when price makes a new 20 day low that is at least four days apart from the previous one.
If the market then bounces back above that old low, it signals rejection of the breakdown.
A buy order is placed just above the previous low, with a stop slightly below the day’s low.
The goal is to capture the quick return to the mean rather than hold for a long trend.
🟡 Short setup
The short entry follows the same logic in reverse.
When price hits a new 20 day high and then falls back below the old high, it shows failed strength.
A short order is placed just below that old high, with a stop a few cents above the day’s top.
🟡 Managing trades
If the trade fails immediately, the same entry level can be reused once the signal appears again.
If it moves in your favor, a trailing stop can protect profits, often set at one unit of risk (1R).
This way, losses stay small while winners have room to grow.
🟡 When it works best
Turtle Soup performs well in range bound or choppy markets where trends struggle to hold.
It thrives on the emotional swings that make traders chase breakouts too late.
Instead of fighting the market, it waits for the crowd to overreact and steps in the opposite direction.
Not every breakout is a new trend.
Sometimes the best trades come from knowing when the story has gone too far and the price just wants to return home.
JUST IN: The Dow has rebounded from a 600-point drop and turned positive, after US Trade Representative Greer announced a scheduled meeting between President Trump and China's President Xi.
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JUST IN: Greer indicates that the imposition of November 1 tariffs hinges on China's response, adding that a tariff on China could take effect sooner, aligning with Trump's statements.
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JUST IN: Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at the National Association for Business Economics annual meeting at 12:20 PM ET, marking his first major public appearance since the September rate cut. He will address the economic outlook and monetary policy.
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JUST IN: The S&P 500 has deepened its daily losses to -1.5%, driven by investor reactions to recent bank earnings and escalating trade tensions.
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💵 How the Repo Market Keeps the Dollar Alive
Every night, trillions of dollars quietly move through the U.S. repo system. It’s the hidden engine of dollar liquidity — where banks, hedge funds, and asset managers exchange cash for Treasuries to keep global markets running smoothly.
🟡 What a Repo Is
A repo is simply a short-term loan backed by collateral.
Cash lenders like Vanguard or insurance funds provide dollars.
Borrowers such as hedge funds give U.S. Treasuries as collateral.
After a day or two, the borrower buys them back at a slightly higher price.
That small difference is the interest — the cost of liquidity.
🟡 The Core System: DTCC
Everything runs through the DTCC, the central clearinghouse.
It stands between both sides, checks every trade, matches data, and guarantees settlement.
By taking both contracts — one with the lender and one with the borrower — DTCC removes most counterparty risk.
🟡 Where It Clears: BNY Mellon
BNY Mellon is the only clearing bank for U.S. repos.
It manages accounts for both sides and moves assets back and forth.
Cash flows to the borrower, Treasuries flow to the lender.
When the deal ends, both return to their original owners.
BNY updates the balances in real time as prices move.
🟡 The Fed’s Role
All of this happens inside the Fed’s digital system — the Commercial Book-Entry System (CBES) — the official ledger that records ownership of Treasuries.
The Fed doesn’t trade, but without this infrastructure, the system would stop.
🟡 Why It Matters
The repo market is the bloodstream of the dollar.
It gives banks and funds the short-term liquidity they need to function.
When repo funding dries up, everything slows — credit, markets, even Treasury auctions.
You don’t see it on a chart, but this is where the real dollar system lives.
Find the gems before they blow!
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JUST IN: President Trump is considering deploying National Guard troops to San Francisco as part of his crime crackdown initiative.
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JUST IN: The chief of India's central bank has stated that the country intends to promote CBDC while discouraging cryptocurrencies and stablecoins.
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JUST IN: The Global Times describes Donald Trump's threat targeting China's cooking oil as ineffective.
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JUST IN: Bessent states that the stock market will not impact negotiations with China.
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JUST IN: Nasdaq 100 futures have climbed more than +1%, with investors downplaying trade frictions between the US and China.
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📈 75 years of S&P 500 pain and gain
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged 11% annual returns while enduring an average 14% drawdown each year.
The chart shows how often deep pullbacks still ended with strong yearly gains.
The lesson? Volatility doesn’t equal a permanent financial loss unless you sell.
Every blown account was built on the same foundation:
Impatience, ego, and denial.
You don’t fix that with more setups.
You fix it by facing the truth you’ve been avoiding.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump stated that Argentina should avoid any military cooperation with China.
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JUST IN: Global gold ETFs recorded net inflows of $2.1 billion last week, their seventh consecutive weekly gain, following a record $5.3 billion in the prior week. Year-to-date, these funds have attracted $68 billion in inflows, the highest for any year on record.
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JUST IN: Greer reports that a scheduled time has been set for a meeting between Trump and Xi.
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JUST IN: Binance will distribute $300 million to users liquidated during the October 10th market crash.
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🥈 Silver entering its comeback cycle
The Silver-to-S&P 500 ratio is showing early signs of a reversal — suggesting silver could start outperforming U.S. equities again.
🟡 The last major uptrend ran from 2003 to 2011, when silver crushed stocks
🟡 The ratio is now rebounding from levels where silver was deeply undervalued
🟡 Signals growing rotation from financial assets into hard assets
If history rhymes, the next few years might favor metal over multiple expansion.
JUST IN: Key U.S. economic indicators face delays or cancellations due to the ongoing government shutdown.
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) release is not expected.
• Producer Price Index (PPI) release is not expected.
• Jobless Claims data is not expected to be published.
• Retail Sales figures are unlikely to be released.
• Import/Export Price Index is at risk of delay.
• Energy reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration have uncertain release status.
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🏆 Gold Demand at Record Levels
The largest gold ETF, $GLD, saw an explosive surge in trading — one of the biggest single-day spikes in years. Such volumes were last seen more than a decade ago, highlighting a growing shift of capital into defensive assets.
🟡 $12.5B daily volume — 2nd highest on record
🟡 Previous peak: 2013
🟡 Outperformed most top tech stocks by trading activity
Money is moving from speculation to preservation. Gold is in demand, and the signal couldn’t be clearer.
Trading isn’t supposed to be exciting — it’s supposed to be profitable.
If you’re constantly looking for action, you’ll find yourself overtrading.
Take that energy somewhere else and let your trading stay boring.
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