Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 21:11

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇶🇦🇮🇱🇱🇧🇱🇧🇵🇰- Immediately following his Situation Room meeting, Donald Trump began a policy meeting.

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 20:30

🇮🇷❌⁉️- Tasnim News Agency reports that the Iranian Army Air Defense Forces detected and destroyed a hostile drone near Qeshm Island in a successful operation. Further details are expected to be announced shortly.

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 20:14

🇷🇺❌🇺🇦 — A couple cruise missiles made impact in Bila Tserkva, Kiev Oblast.

This was supposed to be posted earlier but I forgor to hit send 😭

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 20:06

🇮🇷- Air defenses have been activated on southern Iran's Qeshm Island; a significant amount of firing was reported, according to local sources.

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 19:58

🇺🇸🇺🇸🇮🇶- The U.S. Air Force Bombardier E-11A BACN aircraft is once again back over Anbar governorate in southwest Iraq. It is currently circling approximately 180 kilometers north of the area where the first covert Israeli forward operating base was established, above Iraq's International Highway 1.

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 19:30

🇮🇷🇺🇸🇶🇦🇮🇱🇱🇧🇱🇧🇵🇰- According to IRIB, Trump's alleged agreement text is one-sided, and no agreement has been reached on any of its clauses.

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 19:16

🇮🇷🇺🇸🇶🇦🇮🇱🇱🇧🇱🇧🇵🇰- Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei confirmed that the exchange of messages with the US is ongoing but that the memorandum of understanding has not yet been finalized. Baghaei stated that Iran needs to see whether the lifting of the naval blockade is genuine or merely a media statement.

➡️He stressed that Iran acts in accordance with its own national interests rather than American directives and that enemy vessels remain prohibited from crossing the Strait of Hormuz, while commercial ships have been crossing in coordination with Iranian forces.

➡️ On the future management of the strait, Baghaei stated that this is a matter exclusively between Iran and Oman as the two bordering states. He also confirmed that uranium enrichment and nuclear materials are not being discussed at this stage.

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 19:06

According to unconfirmed information, Ukraine has received additional PAC-3 interceptors and missiles for IRIS-T systems, ahead of the upcoming combined Russian missile and drone attack.

As I mentioned before, the attack will likely take place tonight, so we will see if this is true or not based on the interception rate and patterns.

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 18:55

🇦🇪🇮🇱🇺🇸❌🇮🇷 — BREAKING: The UAE carried out dozens of airstrikes against Iran during the war, including strikes after the ceasefire announcement, in a deeper role than previously known alongside the U.S. and Israel, according to WSJ.

The strikes were coordinated with U.S. and Israeli intelligence support and targeted sites including Qeshm Island, Abu Musa, Bandar Abbas, energy facilities on Lavan Island, and the Asaluyeh Petrochemical Complex.

Some attacks targeted Iranian energy infrastructure in retaliation for Iranian strikes on Emirati oil and gas facilities.

The strike on the Asaluyeh Petrochemical Complex, carried out with Israel, triggered international criticism and prompted Washington to ask Israel to stop targeting Iranian energy sites.

The operations also exposed divisions among Gulf states: Saudi Arabia urged the U.S. to pressure the UAE to halt the attacks, warning they risked wider retaliation against regional energy infrastructure and global oil markets.

UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan became frustrated with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman earlier in the war for refusing to join coordinated military action against Iran.

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 18:34

🇮🇷🇺🇸- TankerTrackers reports that, in recent days, tankers have been loading crude oil and refined products across Iran's coastline and offshore installations. Today, a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) was observed loading two million barrels of crude oil.

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 18:25

🇮🇷🇺🇸🇶🇦🇮🇱🇱🇧🇱🇧🇵🇰- An Iranian official told Mehr News Agency that disagreements on several issues continue and that Donald Trump's recent post merely reflects his wishes rather than the reality of the negotiations.

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 18:04

⚡️🇮🇱❌🇵🇸 - Presumably, the IDF is to achieve that goal through the already ongoing and gradual expansion of the yellow line, utilizing artillery fire and bulldozing the areas of advancements whilst avoid direct engagements, but is to do so in a more rapid pace.

This push serves as adding yet more pressure onto Hamas and the AlQassam Brigades, by further displacing the populations and expanding it's "security zones", to force them into completely disarming and dissolving it's apparatuses, since the designated deadline had already expired.

Moreover, this is paired with the pressure of security collapse through high-ranking assassinations and continuous escalations that destabilize the strip.

Attached [1] is the estimated extent of expansion to occur. Do note that occupying the entire northern sector of Gaza [2] would also increase the extent of control to ~70%.

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 17:45

🇮🇷🇺🇸🇶🇦🇮🇱🇱🇧🇱🇧🇵🇰- According to Fars News Agency, informed sources have dismissed Donald Trump's recent claims about a deal with Iran as "a mix of truth and lies" and an attempt to stage a fake victory. The sources say the agreement text is still in its final stages of ratification in Iran, and no final decision has been made.

➡️ Fars identified two key distortions in Trump's account: first, that Iran is obliged to open the Strait of Hormuz without fees, something sources say is not in the text, with Iran planning its own arrangements for managing the strait; and second, that Iran will dismantle its nuclear materials, which sources describe as "fundamentally baseless" and absent from the memorandum entirely.

➡️ Two key clauses Trump reportedly omitted include the immediate payment of $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets, which must be paid before Iran enters any further negotiations, and a complete ceasefire in Lebanon in line with Hezbollah's position.

➡️ Iranian officials stressed that any final agreement will be based on Iran's red lines and approached with "complete distrust" of the US, with immediate countermeasures planned in the event of any breach.

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 17:41

🇮🇷🇺🇸🇶🇦🇮🇱🇵🇰- Axios reports that the memorandum of understanding involves a 60-day ceasefire extension, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and commits Iran to negotiate on its nuclear program but includes no specific concessions, with U.S. officials saying they have verbal commitments from Iran on nuclear materials.

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 16:53

🇺🇸❌🇮🇷- Donald Trump has posted on Truth Social:

Iran must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb. The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions. All water mines (bombs), if any, will be terminated (we have removed, through detonation, numerous such mines with our great underwater mine sweepers. Iran will complete the immediate removal and/or detonation of any mines that are left, which will not be many!). Ships caught in the Strait due to our amazing and unprecedented Naval Blockade, which will now be lifted, may start the process of “heading home!” Say HELLO to your wives, husbands, parents, and families from me, your favorite President! The enriched material, sometimes referred to as “Nuclear Dust,” which is buried deep underground with virtually collapsed mountains, caused by our powerful B2 Bomber attack 11 months ago, sitting on top of it, will be unearthed by the United States (which, it is agreed, is the only Country, along with China, with the mechanical capability of doing so!), in close coordination and conjunction with the Islamic Republic of Iran, plus the International Atomic Energy Agency, and DESTROYED. No money will be exchanged, until further notice. Other items, of far less importance, have been agreed to. I will be meeting now, in the Situation Room, to make a final determination. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 20:59

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇶🇦🇮🇱🇱🇧🇱🇧🇵🇰- According to the New York Times, Donald Trump's Situation Room meeting lasted approximately two hours but concluded without a decision on any new deal with Iran, according to a senior administration official.

➡️ The administration believes it is close to an agreement, though certain matters remain under debate, including the unfreezing of Iranian funds.

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 20:16

🇮🇷❌⁉️- Alleged footage of the air defenses on Qeshm Island.

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 20:09

🇮🇷❌⁉️- Mehr News Agency has confirmed our report of air defense activity on Qeshm Island; the reason is currently unknown.

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 20:03

🇮🇷❌🇺🇸- The head of the national security commission of the Iranian parliament, Ebrahim Azizi:

Trump must know that Iran, as the victor and conqueror of the field, sets the terms:
Criticism for criticism
Credit for credit
Nothing for nothing
Of course, for the matters under negotiation, not his wishes!

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 19:34

🇮🇷🇺🇸🇶🇦🇮🇱🇱🇧🇱🇧🇵🇰- IRIB has also stated that Iran has not yet sent its response to the text of the 14-point memorandum to the US.

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 19:24

🇷🇺❌🇺🇦 — Repeated cruise missile launches from Russia towards Ukraine. They have came in from multiple oblasts and have been flying in singles. This is separate from the expected combined missile and drone attack later.

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 19:10

🇺🇸🇮🇷- Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, has exited the White House; the Situation Room meeting has likely concluded.

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 19:05

❗️Russia likely plans to launch a large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine tonight, between 11pm and 6am.

6 Tu-95MS strategic bombers are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at OIenya and Engels-2 Airbases. The ones at Engels-2 will likely fly back to Olenya this afternoon ahead of the attack.

2 Tu-160M strategic bombers are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at Ukrainka Airbase in the far east.

The Tu-160s would likely take off at around 9:30pm tonight (around 10 hours from now), while the Tu-95MS would likely take off at around 11:30pm (around 12 hours from now).

In addition to this, the following could be used:

- Iskander-M ballistic missiles (from Voronezh, Bryansk, Kursk, and Rostov Oblasts, as well as Crimea).
- Iskander-K cruise missiles (from Kursk and Rostov Oblasts).
- Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles (from Kursk Oblast).
- Kh-22/32 cruise missiles from Tu-22m3 strategic bombers (from launch lines over Bryansk Oblast)
- Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles from MiG-31K fighters at Savasleika Airbase.
- Kalibr cruise missiles from one frigate and one corvette at Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai.

The highest threat is to Kyiv City, Kyiv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Zhytomyr Oblast, Rivne Oblast, Khmelnytskyi Oblast, Lviv Oblast, and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast.

In my opinion, the main target of this attack will be Ukraine's military-industrial complex, and possibly various airbase in Kyiv Oblast and western Ukraine. I personally doubt that major decision-making centres will be targeted, but we will see.

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 18:40

🇮🇷📞🇴🇲- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in a conversation with his Omani counterpart, stated that reaching a final agreement depends on the US abandoning an excessive approach and its changing and contradictory positions. Araghchi reaffirmed that Iran remains serious and steadfast in pursuing its legitimate rights and interests.

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 18:26

🇮🇷🇺🇸🇶🇦🇮🇱🇱🇧🇱🇧🇵🇰- According to Tasnim News Agency, no final understanding has been reached between Iran and the US, with the outlet describing Trump's post as consistent with his "usual pattern of expressing one-sided and egotistical opinions."

➡️ Tasnim stressed that any lifting of the naval blockade would merely mean ending a ceasefire violation that should never have existed in the first place. Claims by Trump and American media regarding the nuclear issue were dismissed as baseless, as no detailed nuclear discussions are taking place at this stage.

➡️ The outlet also noted that Trump's insistence on withholding Iran's frozen funds only deepens Iranian suspicions about US seriousness, reiterating that the status of frozen assets must be clarified before any initial understanding is reached.

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 18:10

🇮🇷🇺🇸🇶🇦🇮🇱🇱🇧🇱🇧🇵🇰- Al-Jazeera's Ali Hashem:

A well-informed source told me that Trump’s Truth Social post about lifting the blockade was, in fact, the first condition before moving to the next steps of the understanding.
According to the source, the Iranian side insisted on a formal public announcement first. Trump appears to have framed it as a secondary issue, while Tehran sees it as a key confidence-building measure before entering the more sensitive files.
So far, there has been no direct discussion of the nuclear file itself. The process is expected to move gradually through an MOU, where every step will be matched by a reciprocal step.
The same sources say a ceasefire announcement between Hezbollah and Israel is also expected as part of the broader framework currently taking shape.

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 18:04

#BREAKING
🇮🇱❌🇵🇸 - During a conference in the Ein Prat Leadership Academy in Israel yesterday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that his directive is to increase the occupation of Gaza onto 70% of It's territory, from the current 60%.

Following a comment by an audience member, Netanyahu expressed the will to steadily increase the occupation up to 100% of Gaza.
📝 Transcript [click to expand]:

Netanyahu: So, we are in a process where our power, we can leverage our power in several directions. If there is a need to crush Hezbollah. We are currently striking Hamas, yes. We are now at 60% of the territory of the Strip. You know, we were at 50%. We moved to 60%. My directive is to move to..."

The audience then calls out: "100! 100!"

He chuckles and responds: "Go in order. First of all, 70%. Let's start with that. We are striking them from all directions, and we will handle the rest."

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 17:43

🇺🇸🇵🇰⚡️ — Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar.

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 17:00

🇺🇸❌🇮🇷- Summary: Donald Trump has announced that the U.S. naval blockade will be lifted, allowing ships that had been held up to begin heading towards their destination.

➡️ Donald Trump outlined the key terms he is demanding in any agreement with Iran. Iran must commit to never possessing a nuclear weapon, the Strait of Hormuz must be immediately opened for unrestricted shipping in both directions with no tolls, and all remaining sea mines must be removed or detonated.

➡️ Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, "buried underground" following B-2 bomber strikes, will be excavated jointly by the US and Iran in coordination with the IAEA and destroyed.

➡️ Trump acknowledged that both the US and China are the only countries with the mechanical capability to carry out such an excavation operation. No money will be exchanged "until further notice," and Trump noted that other less significant issues have also been agreed upon. He concluded by announcing he would be meeting in the Situation Room to make a final determination on the deal.

Geopolitics Watch

29 May 2026 16:40

🇮🇱❌🇱🇧🇱🇧- The IDF has issued an evacuation notice for all residents in the southern Lebanese town of Zefta.