💵 U.S. military personnel may stop receiving pay by November 15 if the government shutdown continues, Treasury Secretary Bessent warned.

@ukraine_watch

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🇨🇳🇺🇸 Absolutely extraordinary paper by RAND, the main think tank of the US military-industrial complex, and another key sign that the U.S. deep state - despite all the chaos and noise - is shifting away from deterring China, towards accepting coexistence (it's literally what they recommend in the paper).

These are the 3 most important recommendations in the paper:

1. Rejecting the false belief that a victory is possible in the China-US rivalry and accepting the legitimacy of the Communist Party:

They write that the U.S. should "clarify U.S. objectives in the rivalry with language that explicitly rejects absolute versions of victory and accepts the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party."

They explain that it's necessary because victory is objectively impossible ("the effective destruction of the other is not a feasible option"), rejecting it is imposed by hard realities and because continuing to try would be catastrophic (as it would "threaten [either side's] survival").

2. Accepting coexistence

They write that "each side [must] accept, in ways that are deeply ingrained and broadly shared among decision-making officials, that some degree of modus vivendi must necessarily be part of the relationship." They also write that "each side [must] accept the essential political legitimacy of the other."

3. On Taiwan, they recommend not only reassuring China that it can achieve its reunification objective but also using US leverage AGAINST Taiwan to prevent provocations

This is probably the most surprising aspect of the paper. They recommend that "the United States and China should exchange a mutual set of signals" where the US would make "statements that it does not support Taiwan independence, seek a permanent separation across the Straits, or oppose peaceful unification." They write that the US should be "creating the maximum incentive for Beijing to pursue gradual approaches to realizing its ultimate goal [i.e. reunification]."

More remarkably, they argue the US should "balance its commitments to Taiwan with leveraging its influence to ensure Taiwan's actions do not escalate tensions with China." The paper explicitly criticizes Taiwan's Lai Ching-te for statements asserting Taiwan is "sovereign" and says Washington should use its "potential leverage over Taiwan to limit its activities that upset the status quo" - essentially US leverage to pressure Taiwan into not provoking China.

When such a think tank as RAND makes recommendations this deferential to a strategic competitor, it's not out of kindness of heart, they're anything but peaceniks. It's because they realize that the material balance of power has dramatically shifted.

🔗 Arnaud Bertrand

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🇪🇬🇵🇸 Egypt is once again taking the lead, aiming to unify Palestinian factions as a key step toward ending the war in Gaza. Leaders from Hamas, PIJ, PLO, and Fatah met in Cairo over the last few days and agreed to transfer Gaza’s administration to a technocratic committee

🔗 EGYOSINT

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🇯🇲🌪 Hurricane Melissa forecast to become a rare Category 5 tonight, seek shelter now in Jamaica

Melissa is undergoing extreme rapid intensification and is a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds Sunday morning. The US National Hurricane Center expects it to strengthen into a rare Category 5 hurricane tonight.

The center of the hurricane is located 120 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and the storm is moving westward at just 5 mph.

Those in Jamaica need to “seek shelter now,” according to the NHC. “Damaging winds and heavy rainfall today and on Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides before the strongest winds arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning.”

Torrential rains are impacting portions of Haiti and tropical storm conditions are likely occurring in Jamaica. Heavy rainfall will last for several days, bringing life-threatening, potentially catastrophic impact.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/25/weather/hurricane-melissa-storm-tracker-forecast-jamaica-haiti-climate

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🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel is backing four separate anti-Hamas militias in Gaza, Sky News has confirmed.

Militia leader Hossam Al Astal says they are part of an "official project" backed by Israel, the Palestinian Authority and unspecified Arab and Western states.

🔗 Ben van der Merwe

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🇪🇺⚔️🇨🇳 Europe decided to teach China a lesson – and stepped on its own rare earth rake

Europe seems to have seriously taken up the fight against "economic coercion," though it often fails to notice that it most often coerces itself. After China restricted the export of rare earth metals, Macron spoke of a "decisive response." In Brussels, "decisive" means raising tariffs, sanctions, and restrictions on Chinese companies – in short, all the things that have repeatedly turned into headaches for Europe itself.

However, Beijing decided not to wait for "further clarifications" and responded symmetrically – by banning the export of microchips needed for the German automotive industry. The result: Volkswagen is preparing to reduce working hours, and the visit of the German Foreign Minister to China has been canceled. The European press is already calling this a "foreign policy disaster."

The situation was not saved even by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who was also planning to go to Beijing but suddenly found himself "unnecessary" in Xi Jinping's schedule. Apparently, the Chinese leader had more important matters than explaining to Europeans that blackmail is a bad negotiation tool.

Meanwhile, in France, the anti-China zeal takes comical forms: from tariffs on internet parcels to campaigns against Shein stores. The media talk about "sinister purges" in China, and former generals find "enemy operations" even in cheap T-shirts.

And all this under the guise of "fighting for sovereignty." Cutting off its own supply chains and losing partners, Europe once again heroically defends itself... from itself.

🔗 https://vz.ru/world/2025/10/25/1369182.html

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🇷🇺🇺🇦 The first Russian DRGs broke into the city of Konstantinovka.

🔗 /channel/creamy_caprice/10336

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🤖 Baltimore high school student Taki Allen was swarmed by police after an artificial intelligence system apparently mistook his bag of Doritos for a gun

An artificial intelligence system (AI) apparently mistook a high school student’s bag of Doritos for a firearm and called local police to tell them the pupil was armed.

Taki Allen was sitting with friends on Monday night outside Kenwood high school in Baltimore and eating a snack when police officers with guns approached him.

“At first, I didn’t know where they were going until they started walking toward me with guns, talking about, ‘Get on the ground,’ and I was like, ‘What?’” Allen told the WBAL-TV 11 News television station.

Allen said they made him get on his knees, handcuffed and searched him – finding nothing. They then showed him a copy of the picture that had triggered the alert.

🔗 https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/24/baltimore-student-ai-gun-detection-system-doritos

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🇨🇦❌🇺🇸 Ontario's PM, Doug Ford, played the Ronald Reagan anti-tariff commercial during the Game One of the World Series of Major League Baseball.

@CIG_telegram

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🇺🇸🇻🇪 Container operations at the Port-of-Spain in Trinidad & Tobago will be partially suspended from October 26 to 30 to accommodate the arrival of the USS Gravely Navy destroyer for "military exercises". Putting the destroyer within 40km of Venezuelan land.

🔗 bonzerbarry

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🇪🇺 Former Italian PM and chairman of the ECB, Mario Draghi, says the EU needs "pragmatic federalism" to resist modern challenges.

“Almost all the principles on which the Union was founded are under strain,” Draghi said in a speech in Oviedo, Spain, after receiving the Princess of Asturias Award for International Cooperation.

“We built our prosperity on openness and multilateralism, but now we are faced with protectionism and unilateral action” and the “return of hard military power,” he continued, arguing that the EU as it currently works is not equipped to address these challenges.

The problem, Draghi said, is that “our governance has not changed for many years” and the European structure that exists today “simply cannot meet such demands.”

To overcome the economic, social and security challenges facing the bloc, the EU urgently needs to reform itself and change its treaties, argued the former president of the European Central Bank and author of a landmark report on the EU’s competitiveness in 2024.

“A new pragmatic federalism is the only viable path,” Draghi stressed.

Such federalism would be “built through coalitions of willing people around shared strategic interests, recognizing that the diverse strengths that exist in Europe do not require all countries to advance at the same pace,” Draghi explained. “All those who wanted to join could do so, while those trying to block progress could no longer hold others back.”

📝: European federalism is not a novel idea. It first arose after the end of WW1 as a way to resist the spread of communism and American military and economic power. The dream of interwar liberals was realised after WW2 but not in the way they imagined. The EU was formed not to resist the U.S. and the USSR, but as a puppet of the U.S. to be used as a proxy against the USSR and now Russia and Eurocrats either don't realise they're being used as a proxy or they don't care.

The people who run the EU today, like Draghi, are washed up 70+ year old boomers who use old ideas as "solutions" for modern problems. Draghi's "pragmatic federalism" is not really "federalism". It is the centralization of power with EU members losing the few remaining veto rights they still have over, such as foreign policy.

@CIG_telegram

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🇷🇺🇺🇦 "Ukrainska Pravda has learnt that at least 250 Russian troops are in Pokrovsk – they are engaging in firefights and killing Ukrainian soldiers, particularly drone operators, at their positions.

Logistics into the city are fully controlled by Russian drones, forcing Ukrainian soldiers to walk 10-15 km to reach their positions. The situation is beyond critical...

Two officers from a brigade defending the city confirmed that Russian troops have been shooting and killing Ukrainian UAV operators and engaging artillery and anti-tank units in direct combat inside the city...

Others, Ukrainska Pravda has found, exist only on maps – either occupied by wounded soldiers or abandoned entirely. Ukrainian defenders are facing a catastrophic shortage of infantry.

Quote from the first officer: 'Infantry is practically cut off from command. We can hear them on the radio and we try to deliver water to them with drones. They've been on the positions for two and a half to three months. For our brigade, that's long – we usually rotate people. In Pokrovsk itself, there are at least 250 of those bastards, probably more. There's fighting on almost every street; we have casualties every day.'"

🔗 https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/10/24/8004333/

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🇺🇸🌎 U.S. "enhances force presence" in SOUTHCOM and redirects the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group - the "most capable, adaptable, and lethal naval mission package in the world" - from Europe to the U.S. Southern Command AOR.

Aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78), escorted by DESRON 2, with Carrier Air Wing 8 embarked, deployed 4 months ago with ~4,500 Sailors, and will support the mission to "counter narco-terrorism in defense of the homeland" and "enhance and augment existing capabilities to disrupt narcotics trafficking and degrade and dismantle TCOs." (DOW

🔗 Ian Ellis

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🇺🇸🍼 A hypothetical county with a 0 % Trump vote share has a ~0.9 Non-Hispanic White TFR. One at 100% Trump would be around ~2.1.

🔗 Charlie Smirkley

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🇺🇸 Donald Trump gave Alaska 25 million USD to repair the damages caused by the Halong Typhoon.

Two weeks ago, he bought 40 billion USD worth of Argentinian pesos, a worthless currency, to bail out Javier Milei.

@CIG_telegram

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🇫🇷🤝🇺🇦 The Chief of the General Staff of the French Army, Pierre Schill, said that France is ready to deploy troops to Ukraine in 2026.

The French troops in Ukraine are meant to give "security guarantees" to Kiev.

The French contingent will likely not be higher than 7.000 troops.

🔗 https://www.bfmtv.com/international/europe/ukraine/le-chef-d-etat-major-de-l-armee-de-terre-dit-se-tenir-pret-a-deployer-des-forces-au-profit-de-l-ukraine-en-2026_AV-202510240444.html

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🇬🇧 Tony Blair's non-profit group is undergoing restructuring after a 4.3 million $ loss in 2024

Blair told FT he is looking to expand his non-profit's consulting contracts while also reduce the number of staffers as he believes he is far too reliant on private donors to keep his Institute for Global Change going.

In 2023, Oracle founder and billionaire, Larry Ellison, accounted for one third of the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change's revenue.

The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change advises 50 governments and is lobbying hard for the implementation of AI and "innovation".

🔗 https://archive.ph/u04jh

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🇨🇳 Rare images from the packed hold of a PLA Navy landing ship before the deployment of equipment: ZBD-05 infantry fighting vehicles, ZLT-05 tanks, medical vehicles, and Type 89 armored personnel carriers.

🔗 OSINTWarfare

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👨‍💻 About 58% of recent Gen Z graduates are still looking for full-time work, compared to 25% of earlier graduates, like millennials, Gen Xers, and baby boomers before them

As millions of students prepare to graduate this spring, their chances of landing that crucial first job—the one that kickstarts a career—appear increasingly uncertain.

Beyond a cooling economy burdened by tariff-related uncertainty, the rise of artificial intelligence is now threatening the entry-level roles that have long functioned as gateways into the workforce, according to Aneesh Raman, LinkedIn’s chief economic opportunity officer. In a recent op-ed for The New York Times, Raman compared the current disruption to the collapse of manufacturing jobs in the 1980s.

“Now it is our office workers who are staring down the same kind of technological and economic disruption,” he wrote. “Breaking first is the bottom rung of the career ladder.”

Many entry-level duties—once handled by junior staff as on-the-job training—are now being performed by AI. For instance, junior software developers once spent time learning through simple coding and debugging; now, those tasks are often handled by AI tools. Similar displacement is occurring in fields like law, retail, and even finance, where Wall Street firms are reportedly slashing entry-level hiring.

Raman also pointed to the recent trend of rising unemployment among college graduates—outpacing that of other demographics—as a sign of weakening job prospects, though he cautioned that there’s not yet definitive evidence linking the trend directly to AI.

Still, Raman emphasized that entry-level work isn’t vanishing entirely. Executives continue to value fresh perspectives from younger workers, and in some cases, AI is freeing up junior staff to take on more meaningful and challenging tasks earlier in their careers.

But the shift underway in sectors like tech is likely to ripple across other industries. Office jobs, in particular, could soon feel the brunt of AI’s impact, Raman warned.

https://unusualwhales.com/news/about-58-of-recent-gen-z-graduates-are-still-looking-for-full-time-work-compared-to-25-of-earlier-graduates-like-millennials-gen-xers-and-baby-boomers-before-them

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🇺🇸 The biggest demographic to be hit by the loss of SNAP benefits are young, rural White Americans.

Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) cut 186 billion $ from SNAP benefits.

The USDA decided to not use its emergency funds to finance SNAP benefits meaning that, as soon as November 1st, 40 million Americans will lose their safety net.

@CIG_telegram

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🇬🇧🔌 Periodic reminder that the UK is rapidly declining in per capita electricity generation since 2003, converging with South Africa. Household consumption is still higher than in China but at these prices… not for long.

No such thing as a developed energy-poor country.

🔗 Teortaxes

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🤖 AI eats leisure time, makes employees work more, study finds

AI services like OpenAI's ChatGPT have been pitched for potential productivity gains, but their effect has been to make people work more while benefiting less from their labor.

"When...ChatGPT came along, we were all very mesmerized by how powerful it is, how much work it does," said Wei Jiang, professor of finance at Emory University, in a phone interview with The Register. "So we, like other people, anticipated if AI is doing our work, we can work less. And I just find myself actually working longer. So I checked with a few friends, and every one of them says, 'Hey, we're actually working longer.'"

"Workers in occupations with higher exposure to generative AI experienced a significant increase in work hours and a decrease in leisure time following the introduction of ChatGPT," the paper says.

Based on data from 2022 and 2023 (when ChatGPT saw widespread use), an interquartile increase in generative AI exposure corresponded to an additional 3.15 hours of work and a reduction of 3.20 hours in leisure per week.

Jiang takes it as a given that AI increases productivity, although there have been several studies suggesting the opposite.

"I don't think there's much controversy to say that AI brings productivity gains," she said. But the problem is, workers may not be reaping the benefits. "I think the disagreement is about who enjoys the gains."

"I think generally people tend to agree that the AI technology seems most gains are going to the consumers and the firms, and not much to the large population of workers," said Jiang.

The longer hours, the authors say, also follow from AI's role in surveilling workers to enforce greater productivity. "Remote workers with greater exposure to AI surveillance technologies work longer hours post-pandemic," the paper says, noting this effect is not observed among the self-employed.

🔗 https://www.theregister.com/2025/10/21/ai_eats_leisure_time/

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🇺🇸 Friendly Reminder:

If your income has not risen by at least 26% since Covid hit, you are now poorer.

And that is using the government’s own data. The real number is likely 40% plus.

🔗 Geiger Capital

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🇺🇸 US Auto Plants Weeks Away From Chip Shutdowns, Lobby Group Says

US auto plants are two to four weeks away from “significant impacts” on vehicle production due to the conflict with China over chipmaker Nexperia, according to MEMA, the largest vehicle supplier association in the US.

Beijing this month blocked Nexperia, a key supplier of chips used by the automotive and consumer electronics industries, from exporting from its facilities in China. The move was in response to the Dutch government seizing control of the Chinese-owned chipmaker, and highlighted worsening trade relations between China and the West.

“A handful of these chips can literally stop production of a full assembly plant,” said Steve Horaney, a senior vice president at MEMA, the Motor & Equipment Manufacturers Association. “There are substitutes, but probably not for everybody.”

Europe’s auto industry is already working around the clock to prevent the conflict from triggering production outages. This week, Nexperia notified its Japanese automotive customers that it may no longer be able to guarantee deliveries. China has been tightening constraints on crucial manufacturing components, and the Trump administration has responded in kind, ahead of a highly anticipated summit next week between the countries’ leaders.

🔗 https://archive.ph/DewTf

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🇷🇺🇺🇦 In Kupyansk, Russian troops have consolidated control over most of the city, leaving two neighbourhoods in the south of the city under Ukrainian control.

To the north, Ukrainian troops launched a counterattack towards the village of Golubovka.

Meanwhile, Russian troops are carrying out attacks from the east to push the Ukrainian army over the Oskol river.

@CIG_telegram

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🇷🇺🇺🇦 In the Lyman direction, north Donetsk Oblast, Russian DRGs have entered the first houses of the city of Lyman

Lyman is the last line of defense before Slaviansk proper.

Further to the west, Russian troops advanced up to the village of Alexandrovka and are on the approaches of Yarovaya.

This type of advance creates a claw around the city of Lyman.

🔗 Maps by AMK Mapping and Kalibrated

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🇷🇺🇺🇦 Update on the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd pocket:

Russian troops fully captured the city of Rodinskoe and have crossed the railway line in the center of Pokrovsk capturing the first houses in the city's northern districts.

Ukrainian troops are effectively encircled in Pokrovsk and Myrnograd and they don't appear to put much of a defense anymore.

🔗 Map by AMK Mapping

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🇺🇸 It's official - the House will be out AGAIN next week, for a sixth consecutive week. That means the House will have worked 20 days over 17 weeks. The last House vote was on Sept. 19.

🔗 Jamie Dupree

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🇩🇪 Mechanical engineering is regarded as the heart of German industry – as a job engine, export support and source of innovation. But the industry continues to decline, experiencing a massive loss of production. Its downturn hits the entire economy at the centre.

The way back from the economic depression is getting longer and longer for the German economy. A current Evaluation the economic consultancy PwC shows that the situation in mechanical engineering has deteriorated further over the course of the year. The survey found that a decline in sales of 5.6 percent is expected for the current year.

Thus, the entire production decline since the time before the corona lockdowns accumulates to over 22 percent. With an average capacity utilization of the mechanical engineering companies of 80.8 percent, the lowest value in five years, it is confirmed what everyone feels: growing cost pressures in the wake of the energy crisis, over-regulation, problems in the main sales markets China and the USA, also a result of the American customs policy, push the production figures into the basement.

PwC industry expert Bernd Jung commented on the quarterly figures: “2025 will be a decisive year for mechanical and plant engineering. After the government breaks in France and Germany and the geopolitical conflicts, there is growing concern about the business model of the industry.”

This assumption is confirmed by the sharply increased insolvency figures, which the industry association VDMA and the Creditreform have calculated by October. Compared to the previous year, 22 percent more companies have filed for bankruptcy. Since the beginning of the year, about 12,000 jobs have been cut in mechanical engineering alone. PwC warns that another 20,000 jobs could be cut by the end of the year should the hoped-for turnaround be absent.

One gets tangled up in the intercoalition dispute and gets lost in tax hike debates. There is only agreement on defending the course set by Brussels, whatever the cost. Nothing is done about the CO2 targets and its catastrophic downstream effects for German industry.

Germany is in OECD-Compare now the most expensive business location and with a regulatory cost mountain of 60 billion euros really no investor paradise.

The evaluation of the PwC confirms this observation: Who can, leaves the German location either completely or directs his investment commitment to other locations. For example, automotive companies such as BMW and Audi have long been investing heavily at the Hungary site – such as the BMW Group in Debrecen.

🔗 https://apollo-news.net/massiver-produktionsverlust-im-maschinenbau-das-herz-der-deutschen-wirtschaft-kollabiert/

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🇬🇧 The Ethiopian migrant who assaulted a 14 year old girl in Epping which led to riots, was "accidentally" released by the UK's prison service.

Authorities ask citizens to be on the lookout for Hadush Kebatu and report to authorities if they spot him.

🔗 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2d5rl36vgo

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