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Focusing on news from the Russia-Ukraine war and other conflicts in the Middle East. If you want to help support my reporting: https://buymeacoffee.com/amk_mapping. All links to my interactive maps, twitter account, etc: https://linktr.ee/AMK_Mapping

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AMK Mapping

The Ukrainian Special Operations Forces published footage showing 15 new FP-2 drone strikes on valuable Russian targets in Crimea and Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

In the village of Pasichne, Crimea, they reportedly struck a facility used for storing Iskander-M ballsitic missiles. Notably, Pasichne is less than 15 km from known Russian Iskander-M OTRK installations in Crimea.

In the village of Vysoke, they reportedly struck a remote pilot station of Russia's elite "Rubicon" drone unit.

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AMK Mapping

This morning, a Ukrainian long-range UAV struck a methanol production facility at the Metafrax Chemical plant in the city of Gubakha, Perm Krai.

Coordinates: 58.89291, 57.57235.

The distance from the nearest Ukrainian-controlled territory is approximately 1,600 km.

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AMK Mapping

I always regret opening the cesspool which Twitter is. It seems every day there's a new person trying to prove I'm an FSB operative or something.

"Not taking things well" but yet I've had some of the most extensive coverage of this Ukrainian counteroffensive since it began.

Stupidity from these people who claim to support Ukraine really has no limits.

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AMK Mapping

Last night and this morning, another large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack was carried out on Ukraine.

Missiles launched:


~16 Kh-101 cruise missiles launched from 4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers at their launch lines over the Caspian Sea in Limansky District, Astrakhan Oblast.

~12 Kh-101 cruise missiles launched from 2 Tu-160M strategic bombers at their launch lines over the Caspian Sea in Limansky District, Astrakhan Oblast.

~6 Iskander-K cruise missiles launched from OTRK installations in Kursk Oblast.

~4 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations near Taganrog, Rostov Oblast.

~1 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched from an OTRK installation near Dzhankoi, Crimea.

~1 Kh-59/69 cruise missile launched from a Su-34 at its launch lines near Kamianka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

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Total missiles launched:

~28 Kh-101 cruise missiles.
~6 Iskander-K cruise missiles.
~5 Iskander-M ballistic missiles.
~1 Kh-59/69 cruise missile.

~40 missiles in total.

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Ukrainian air defence work:

As of the time of writing, it appears that Ukrainian air defence was able to intercept at least 14 Kh-101s, 2 Iskander-Ks, and 1 Kh-59/69.

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The main targets for this strike was Ukrainian energy infrastructure in western Ukraine. The following was targeted:

- "Zakhidnoukrainska" 750 kV electrical substation, Lviv Oblast (49.38707, 24.24990) by ~4 Kh-101s & 4 Iskander-Ks.

- "Podilska" 330 kV electrical substation, Odesa Oblast (47.83028, 29.5142) by ~5 Kh-101s.

- Burshtyn Thermal Power Plant, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast (49.20902, 24.66568) by ~3 Kh-101s.

- "Hirnycha" 330 kV electrical substation, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by ~1 Iskander-M.

- Unknown target in/near Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast by ~3 Iskander-Ms.

- Unknown target near Chornomorsk, Odesa Oblast, by ~2 Kh-101s.

- Unknown fuel-related target in Dnipro, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by ~1 Iskander-M.

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Keep in mind, the numbers of missiles launched may be slightly higher than what I've listed, as the number of missiles detected is sometimes lower than actual launches.

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AMK Mapping

Overnight, Ukrainian UAVs attacked energy infrastructure in Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan.

At least one drone impacted the "Verkhniy Uslon" 110 kV electrical substation, resulting in a fire breaking out.

Coordinates: 55.74932, 48.94610

Approximately 970 km from the nearest Ukrainian-controlled territory.

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AMK Mapping

The Tu-22m3s landed at Shaykovka Airbase, Kaluga Oblast

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AMK Mapping

A large fire is seen burning from Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, after the "Hirnycha" 330 kV electrical substation was struck by a Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile equipped with a cluster warhead, on the southern outskirts of the city.

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AMK Mapping

Possible departures of 2-3 Tu-22m3 strategic bombers from Olenya Airbase

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AMK Mapping

https://open.substack.com/pub/delwinstrategy/p/the-grey-zone-a-doctrinal-clarification?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=6r3ige

Good reading on mapping.

All notions are well defined.

Grey zone,
Control
No-mans land
FLOT
Consolidation
etc.

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AMK Mapping

For the next 4 days, there is an increased threat of a large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine.

If this attack occurs, it will involve Iskander-M ballistic missiles, and possibly Iskander-K cruise missiles, Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles, Kh-22/32 cruise missiles, and Kalibr cruise missiles.

This would server as a "part 2" to today's attack, and would primarily target Kyiv Oblast, and parts of central and eastern Ukraine.

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AMK Mapping

This seems to be Tornado-S. A Russian recon drone is circling near Staryi Saltiv.

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AMK Mapping

Unidentified missile to Staryi Saltiv, Kharkiv Oblast.

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AMK Mapping

The missile attack appears to be over. At least 35 missiles of various types were used. I will publish a full report + the consequences later on.

If you wish to support my work, you can do so here: https://buymeacoffee.com/amk_mapping.

Thank you for following along.

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AMK Mapping

Explosions in Burshtyn. Several impacts to the TPP.

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AMK Mapping

Missiles are now flying low.

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AMK Mapping

I have a theory that, as described by AMK, the ‘death’ of the conventional frontline and the beginning of fluidity and deep infiltration, is a sign that the collapse is a step closer. Ukraine’s critical lack of manpower means their command is concentrating troops in areas and leaving others almost entirely defended by drones. They use these concentrated troop formations to carry out infiltrations and counterattacks, and, due to relying on drones almost exclusively to hold some sectors, are extremely vulnerable to deep Russian infiltrations, by DRGs and then assault groups shortly afterward. In other words, Ukraine is using infantry to attack and drone operators to defend. The next natural step from here, which will indicate total collapse is imminent, will be Ukraine losing the ability to counterattack anywhere. This will suggest Ukraine is out of manpower to expend and is down to simply what is left there holding the front.

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AMK Mapping

The funny thing is, people never end up tagging me in these posts. So every now and then, I'll stumble across a thread posted 6 months ago with 100,000 views making allegations about me that I'd never even heard of 🤣🤣

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AMK Mapping

Pro-Ukrainians will say 100% of missiles were shot down.
Pro-Russians will say every single missile hit its target.

It's always somewhere in between, but most people aren't ready to accept that yet.

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AMK Mapping

The Ukrainian Airforce claims they shot down all 25 cruise missiles launched by Russia overnight.

They did the meme...

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AMK Mapping

As a result of the combined Russian missile and drone attack on the Burshtyn Thermal Power Plant in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, much of the city of Burshtyn is now without heating.

A large column of fire trucks could be seen driving to the plant, which is currently on fire.

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AMK Mapping

Consequences of the Russian Geran-2 drone attack on the area of Kyrykivka, Sumy Oblast, last night.

At least 3 drones attacked an unknown target in a village near Kyrykivka. Residential buildings suffered significant damage. At least 1 civilian was killed and 6 others were injured.

Additional strikes were carried out on a target near the city of Konotop.

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AMK Mapping

Additional scenes from Dnipro, where a large fire broke out following a Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile strike overnight.

The missile likely targeted fuel infrastructure, although the exact impact point is currently unknown.

Additionally, at least 4 Geran-2 drones attacked a target in the northern suburbs of the city.

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AMK Mapping

Last night, Russia carried out a large-scale Geran-2 drone attack on Odesa City.

At least 20 drones attacked multiple targets, with most impacting the "Tairove" 110 kV electrical substation, where a large fire subsequently broke out.

Coordinates: 46.3965, 30.71317

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AMK Mapping

There is also a threat of Kinzhal launches from MiG-31K fighters during the day - especially for the next 4 hours. Any strikes will target energy infrastructure in the western regions of Ukraine.

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AMK Mapping

With frontline strategy evolving, so must the maps, and today I've decided to add a new polygon to my map to represent "infiltration zones".

I have been considering doing something along the lines of this for at least 6 months, but wasn't sure how to go about it. Recently, Deepstate changed their grey-zone to an "infiltration zone", and I have decided that instead of replacing my ordinary grey-zone like them, I will overlay a new, much larger polygon for the infiltration zone.

The infiltration zone can be loosely defined as an area where both sides can remain in either temporary or permanent positions in close proximity to each other, and is much more prone to infiltrations from small groups of soldiers. Parts of this infiltration zone will contain areas of mixed and overlapping Russian and Ukrainian positions, while parts will be considered "solid control" or "consolidated" on most maps, but still prone to non-consolidated infiltrations by each side.

I have added this layer in response to the death of the conventional "frontline" in Ukraine, and the evolution of the line of contact into a dynamic, fluid zone, sometimes up to 15 km wide, where both sides can hold overlapping positions, and can infiltrate deep behind the lines in small groups without being detected (often with DRGs).

However, for simplicity purposes, my ordinary map updates will not show this infiltration zone. I will, however, continue to make the ordinary grey-zone larger to account for some of these more complicated fronts, and the "control zone" (red & blue polygons) will become more and more generalised over time as it becomes impossible to accurately portray the frontline in a solidified sense. You can toggle this infiltration zone layer on and off in the layers tab on my interactive map.

And before people start commenting about this, no - it does not mean the Ukrainian counteroffensive is not taking back ground. If there are areas where there is 98% Ukrainian soldiers and 2% Russian soldiers, it will be marked in blue, but under the "infiltration zone". Additionally, much of the areas which Ukraine has retaken would've been previously marked under red, but also under the infiltration zone.

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AMK Mapping

Disappeared near Zarichne, Kharkiv Oblast.

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AMK Mapping

F-16s and Mirage-2000s shot down a large number of Kh-101s during tonight's attack, along with ground-based installations such as Iris-T.

One reason for this is Russia using the same couple of routes for their missiles every single attack, making their movements very predictable and allowing Ukraine to prepare their air defence and fighter jet movements beforehand.

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AMK Mapping

The last missiles impacted the Zakhidnoukrainska 750 kV substation in Lviv Oblast.

Ukrainian airspace is now clear of missiles.

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AMK Mapping

3 groups from Ternopil are flying to Burshtyn TPP

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AMK Mapping

3 groups flew past Burhstyn towards Stryi.

3 groups are following behind after changing course to the west.

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